Tag: 2020 election

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The State Of Battleground State Polls: October 1, 2020

The New York Times updates its average of polls (national and battleground states) every day. The latest data shows Joe Biden leading nationally by 7 points, but national polls can be vague. The important thing to watch are the polls in battleground states. Knowing Donald Trump won the presidency by flipping usually true-blue states Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on that trio. As of today, the NYTimes average of polls in those states puts Biden ahead by 7 points in all three. If Biden flips all three back to his column, he wins. The other state I’m keeping my eye on is Arizona which Trump won in 2016 by 3.5 points. Today’s polling average shows Biden leading by 4 points. Also worth noting that Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly is leading the incumbent Sen. Martha McSally in the Real Clear Politics average of polls by 5.2 points, which also bodes well for Biden. The Times also explores various outcomes based on the state of today’s polling. For instance, if you were to assign electoral votes based on the states where a candidate is currently leading by 3 points or more, Biden would be projected to win with 291 electoral votes. If you translated the polls directly into electoral votes (won’t happen) Biden would win with 359 electoral votes. And IF we assumed the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Biden would still squeak by with 280 electoral votes. It’s all hypothetical until the votes are counted, but it’s interesting to keep up.

(graphic via NY Times)

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GLAAD: 76% Of LGBTQ Voters Plan To Vote For Joe Biden

Today, GLAAD released a new poll of LGBTQ Americans that puts to rest the misinformation from unreliable sources about Donald Trump’s LGBTQ record and where critical LGBTQ voters stand in this election. The new survey found: • 76% of likely LGBTQ voters favor Biden over Trump, who received 17%. 5% of LGBTQ likely voters planned to vote for another candidate and 2% remain unsure. • 88% of respondents report being registered to vote. • 92% of registered LGBTQ voters said they would definitely or probably vote in the upcoming Presidential election. • 81% of likely LGBTQ voters are more motivated to vote in 2020 than in recent elections.

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News Round-Up: September 30, 2020

Greg Bloomer and Bisquit (via Instagram)
Some news items you might have missed: • Woof Wednesday: Chicago InstaHunk Greg Bloomer and his handsome pooch Bisquit (above) make Hump Day just that much better 🙂 • CNBC: U.S. presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign broke its single-hour fundraising record as the Democrat’s debate with President Donald Trump wrapped up on Tuesday, pulling in $3.8 million, a campaign official said. • VoteVets: Air Force veteran and fighter jet pilot Captain ‘Sully’ Sullenberger endorses former Vice President Joe Biden for president. “Leadership isn’t just about sitting in the pilot seat. It’s about knowing what you’re doing and taking responsibility.”

* Celebitchy: Coronavirus depression nearly caused designer Tom Ford to skip his next collection. “I was irritated when I had a Zoom meeting because it meant washing my hair and perhaps trimming my beard. At the time, the thought of designing a collection seemed frivolous when so many important and disturbing things were happening in our world.” • Reuters: Results from an early study of Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine showed that it produced virus-neutralizing antibodies in older adults at levels similar to those seen in younger adults, with side effects roughly on par with high-dose flu shots, according to researchers. • Twitter: After telling the violent group Proud Boys to “stand by” at last night’s presidential debate debacle and refusing to denounce white supremacy, Trump told reporters today he doesn’t know who the Proud Boys are but “Antifa is the real problem.”

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Trump’s Favorite Pollster Shows Him Trailing Biden By 8 Points

Donald Trump reportedly took classified top secret documents from the White House when his administration came to an end.

Donald Trump (screen capture)
Hot on the heels of last night’s first presidential debate (if you could call it that after Donald Trump’s deplorable performance), the Donald gets some bad news from his favorite polling outfit. Rasmussen Polls, which tends to lean Republican, released its latest results and it shows a 7 point shift towards former Vice President Joe Biden in just one week. The survey puts Biden at an 8 point lead over Trump 51 percent to 43 percent. This is the first time Biden has cleared the 50 point threshold and its Trump’s worst showing in weeks.

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News Round-Up: September 28, 2020

Some news items you might have missed: • Outsports: Major League Baseball ended its regular season on Sunday after a COVID-shortened 60 games and for the first time since the 2016 season, there were no players involved in any recorded, on-field anti-gay controversies. Granted, we still have the playoffs to go, but the only notable incident involved Cincinnati Reds announcer Thom Brennaman. • NY Daily News: A Bronx man is accused of hacking to death with a machete a man he met on Grindr — and his roommate walked in on the bloody aftermath. Juan Alonso, 50, was charged Monday with murder, manslaughter and criminal possession of a weapon. Cops are still trying to identify his victim. • Insider: Two New Jersey police officers pleaded guilty last week to smashing windows and slashing tires on cars owned by a man who had complained about them. As a part of the plea agreement, neither men will be able to work public service in the state. • Politico: A new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll found that just 20 percent of voters said that they believed the winner of the presidential election will be called on election night, while 66 percent said they expect it to happen sometime later, 19 percent believe it will be the next day, and 26 percent believe it will be between two and seven days after the polls close. •  The Hill: A new New York Times/Siena College poll shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the vital battleground state of Pennsylvania by 9 points (49-40). The RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Biden with a 5.3 percentage point lead in the Keystone State. • Netflix: Broadway Cares/Equity Fights AIDS, an organization near and dear to my heart, invites you to “Grab a drink (or two) with the spectacular cast of Netflix’s The Boys in the Band during #SipInWithTheBoys!” The livestream at 8 pm Eastern on October 2 benefits Broadway Cares and The Actors Fund.

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Trump Preps Attacks On Biden’s Family For First Debate

L-R President Donald Trump, former Vice President Joe Biden
The Washington Post reports that Donald Trump is preparing to hit Joe Biden with personal attacks that include the former vice president’s family.

President Trump is gearing up to launch blistering personal attacks on Joe Biden and his family in the first presidential debate on Tuesday, while Biden is bracing for an onslaught and worried allies are warning the Democratic nominee not to lose his temper and lash out, according to people with knowledge of the strategies in both camps.

Trump has told associates he wants to talk specifically about his opponent’s son Hunter Biden and mused that the debates are when “people will finally realize Biden is just not there,” according to one adviser.

The president is so eager to lay into his rival that he has called aides to test out various attacks, focusing on broadsides that cast Biden as a longtime Washington insider with a limited record of accomplishment, said another adviser.

Biden and his advisers are anticipating a venomous barrage, according to a person with knowledge of their thinking, and they are preparing to counter with an affirmative case for a Biden presidency. The Democrat wants to stay focused on how he would address the coronavirus pandemic and the country’s economic problems, which he blames Trump for worsening.

Friends and allies of Biden are a bit concerned because Biden’s ‘passion and empathy’ can sometimes bleed into anger when opponents go after his family.

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Questions Surround ‘Discarded’ Ballots Discovered In PA

What interesting timing… After months of Donald Trump railing at mail-in ballots, a handful of ballots were discovered discarded in battleground state Pennsylvania. It’s almost as if a Trump supporter did the deed to give the Donald’s claims of “voter fraud” some credibility just at the right time. From CBS News:

U.S. Attorney David Freed from the Middle District of Pennsylvania announced Thursday that a federal investigation found that nine military general election ballots were discarded in Luzerne County. Seven were marked for President Trump, and the other two are unknown, said Freed, a Republican.

David Pedri, the Luzerne County manager, said in a statement Friday that the nine ballots that sparked a federal probe were “incorrectly discarded” by a temporary independent contractor in the county election office who has since been fired. Pedri also said the Luzerne election director altered the local district attorney’s office about the incident.

Justin Levitt, a Loyola Law School professor and former Justice Department official, told CBS News that, while it’s typical for the Department of Justice to investigate ballots not being counted, releasing preliminary findings prior to an investigation being completed is odd. And to announce the contents of the ballots is very unusual. “There is no—literally no legitimate law enforcement reason to identify the candidate for whom those ballots were cast,” he told CBS News. “It does not matter who they were voting for. The ballots were either properly or improperly handled. To include that information makes this a partisan act rather than a legal one.” Further reports now say the ballots in question weren’t general election ballots but from the Republican primary. The ‘discarded’ ballots were discovered days ago, but Pennsylvania is apparently just now mailing out general election ballots. More from the Washington Post:

Because these ballots were returned in envelopes similar to absentee ballot requests, elections officials opened them. If the ballots weren’t then enclosed in another envelope which shielded the actual vote being cast, they may have been considered “naked ballots,” a term used to describe mail ballots returned without the voter’s intent being protected.

If that’s the case, which again isn’t clear, that meant that elections officials who were opening the envelopes to see what they contained would have had to discard the votes, given a recent ruling by the state’s Supreme Court.

There are several reports saying the ballots found were from the On Friday, ABC News reported that Attorney General Bill Barr personally briefed Trump on the investigation prior to it being announced. It’s important to note that Trump won Luzerne County by 20 points in 2016. So, tossing 7 ballots marked for Trump is hardly efficient “voter fraud,” you know? If someone was honestly trying to commit “voter fraud,” wouldn’t they have actually destroyed the ballots? Burned them or something? I’m not the only one thinking this doesn’t pass the smell test.

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Fox News State Polls: Biden Ahead +11 In NV, +7 In PA, +5 In Ohio

L-R Former Vice President Joe Biden, Donald Trump
Let me start by pointing out this is a FOX News poll, ok…? From Fox News:

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in the battleground states of Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, according to Fox News statewide likely voter surveys.

In each of the three states, majorities disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, pluralities say coronavirus is “not at all” under control, and Biden is the preferred choice when it comes to handling the virus. Plus, he’s favored over Trump to nominate the next U.S. Supreme Court justice.

There are few undecided voters, and Biden’s support is 50 percent or better in each state. His advantage over Trump is outside the margin of error in Nevada and Pennsylvania, but not Ohio.

Bolding is mine. NEVADA Biden: 52% Trump: 41% OHIO Biden: 50% Trump: 45% PENNSYLVANIA Biden: 51% Trump: 44% That said, this is totally NOT a done deal. We all need to get to the polls and cast our vote – either by mail or in person – by election day.

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Trump Greeted By Boos And Chants Of ‘Vote Him Out’ At SCOTUS

Donald Trump (screen capture)
I doubt Donald Trump is accustomed to being this close to his opposition. Arriving at the United States Supreme Court to pay respects to the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the Donald was greeted with boos and a chorus of “vote him out!” Quite the visceral moment…

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Trump Refuses To Commit To Peaceful Transfer Of Power: ‘Get Rid Of The Ballots’

Donald Trump (screen capture)
During a press conference at the White House today, Donald Trump was asked if he would commit to a peaceful transfer of power in January should Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden win. White House correspondent Brian Karem asked the Donald directly if he would make such a commitment but Trump demured saying, “Well, we’re gonna have to see what happens, you know that. I have been complaining very strongly about the ballots and the ballots are a disaster and-and…” Trump responded as Karem interjected. Attempting to get a clear answer, Karem asked again, “I understand that, but people are rioting. Do you commit to making sure there is a peaceful transfer of power?” “Get rid of the ballots and you’ll have a very transfer – we’ll have a very peaceful,” Trump said. “There won’t be a transfer frankly, there will be a continuation. The ballots are out of control, you know it, and you know who knows it better than anybody else, the Democrats know it better than anybody else. Go ahead.”