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The State Of Battleground State Polls: October 1, 2020

The New York Times updates its average of polls (national and battleground states) every day.

The latest data shows Joe Biden leading nationally by 7 points, but national polls can be vague. The important thing to watch are the polls in battleground states.

Knowing Donald Trump won the presidency by flipping usually true-blue states Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on that trio.

As of today, the NYTimes average of polls in those states puts Biden ahead by 7 points in all three. If Biden flips all three back to his column, he wins.

The other state I’m keeping my eye on is Arizona which Trump won in 2016 by 3.5 points. Today’s polling average shows Biden leading by 4 points. Also worth noting that Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly is leading the incumbent Sen. Martha McSally in the Real Clear Politics average of polls by 5.2 points, which also bodes well for Biden.

The Times also explores various outcomes based on the state of today’s polling.

For instance, if you were to assign electoral votes based on the states where a candidate is currently leading by 3 points or more, Biden would be projected to win with 291 electoral votes.

If you translated the polls directly into electoral votes (won’t happen) Biden would win with 359 electoral votes.

And IF we assumed the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Biden would still squeak by with 280 electoral votes.

It’s all hypothetical until the votes are counted, but it’s interesting to keep up.

(graphic via NY Times)

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