The Cook Political Report, considered one of the most accurate data/poll crunchers out there, has updated its electoral college outlook, most significantly moving Florida from Toss-up status to Leans Democratic. We’ve come to think of the Sunshine State as a 50/50 proposition since the winner of the state hasn’t carried it by more than 5 points since 2000. And in four of the last five presidential elections, the race was decided by 3 points or less. But the most recent poll, via Quinnipiac University, shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 13 points – 51% to 38%. Quinnipiac’s final 2016 Florida poll showed a dead heat; Trump came out on top by less than 2 points. In fact, the Real Clear Politics average of Florida polls puts Biden 7 points ahead of the Donald. It’s worth noting that a victory for Trump without Florida becomes extremely difficult. Read more from The Cook Political Report’s current perspective here. 
Trump Breaks With FL Governor As Polling Shows Biden Leading 13+

Trump identified Florida, which is now his home state and where he plans to accept the Republican nomination next month, as a state that is in a “big tough position” when it comes to coronavirus.
Despite essentially all evidence suggesting otherwise, DeSantis has continually downplayed the severity of the coronavirus outbreak in the state during press briefings.
There are now 53 ICUs in Florida that are reporting 0% capacity, according to the state, which set a record for new hospitalizations Tuesday with 517.
Deaths have also spiked in the state, which reached a new daily high of 156 last Thursday.
Florida is clearly the U.S. coronavirus epicenter and has been for weeks, averaging over 10,000 new cases a day through much of July, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, including a national record high of 15,300 new cases on July 12.
According to Florida Public Radio, Florida reported its largest number of deaths in a single day (173) from the coronavirus today. Trump’s remark might have something to do with his polling in the vital swing state tanking as the latest Quinnipiac University poll shows him trailing former Vice President Joe Biden among registered voters by 13 points – 51 percent to 38 percent. That same poll showed 79% of Floridians support mandating the wearing of face masks when in public which DeSantis has refused to do.
We continue to monitor hospital bed availability & Florida is in good shape – statewide nearly 24% of hospital beds and just under 20% of ICU beds are available.
— Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) July 21, 2020
Florida presidential poll (via Quinnipiac)
July 2020 Biden 51% Trump 38% July 2016 Clinton 39% Trump 42% This is not a parallel path to 2016. Even if it’s half of the real margin, @realDonaldTrump is going to get humiliated electorally and kill the @GOP down ballot. — Anthony Scaramucci (@Scaramucci) July 23, 2020
Quinnipiac poll:
Trump coronavirus response: Florida Approve 37% Disapprove 59% Trump on reopening schools: Florida Approve 36% Disapprove 59% — Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) July 23, 2020
2016 exit polls had Trump +17 among Florida voters over 65 years old. New Quinnipiac poll has Biden +3 for 2020.
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) July 23, 2020
News Round-Up: July 21, 2020

Trump coolly admits to having met Ghislaine Maxwell several times, and says — twice — “I wish her well.” Astounding. Video: pic.twitter.com/R8lwDfTKhR
— Boy Culture Blog (@mattrett) July 21, 2020
Florida Shuts Down Bars Statewide As Record-High Cases Of Virus Reported

The Florida Department of Business and Regulatory affairs announced Friday it is suspending alcohol consumption at all bars statewide, amid a surging statewide coronavirus caseload.
The announcement was tweeted just before 11:30 a.m. by Department Secretary Haley Beshears. It was not immediately clear how the announcement would affect restaurants that serve alcohol, restaurants with bars that serve alcohol, or bars that serve food.
Earlier Friday, the state announced another record of reported COVID-19 cases.
Effective immediately, the Department of Business and Professional Regulation is suspending on premises consumption of alcohol at bars statewide.
— HalseyBeshears (@HalseyBeshears) June 26, 2020
JUST IN: Florida reports massive single-day increase of 9,000 coronavirus caseshttps://t.co/c4pwLI2yG7
— Axios (@axios) June 26, 2020
Florida reported nearly 9,000 new cases of COVID-19 today. It’s hard to imagine anything aging more poorly than this DeSantis rant from just over one month ago. pic.twitter.com/20lO4R73gO
— Paul 👻 (@pablo_honey1) June 26, 2020
VP Mike Pence: “We’ve all seen the encouraging news as we open up America again.” pic.twitter.com/f12eHPUeQr
— The Hill (@thehill) June 26, 2020
Very bad. Almost 9000 new cases in Florida today. Positivity 18.5%. pic.twitter.com/PSL6pC9WrH
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) June 26, 2020
Vice President Mike Pence (Today, a few minutes ago): All 50 states are “opening up safely and responsibly.”
Florida: Uh… Texas: Um… Arizona: Fuck it, let’s party! — Stonekettle (@Stonekettle) June 26, 2020
US Breaks Single-Day Record For New Coronavirus Cases (Again)
For the second day in a row, the United States reported a record total of new coronavirus cases on Thursday – more than 41,000 new cases – on Thursday. Five states – Alabama, Alaska, Montana, Missouri, and Utah — reported their highest daily totals since the pandemic began. Florida continues to see high numbers reported – more than 8,900 new coronavirus cases on Friday – adding to the 10,000 new cases over Wednesday and Thursday, sending the Sunshine State’s total number of cases past 120,000, according to the New York Times. In Texas, with surging numbers of new cases being reported, Gov. Greg Abbott reversed course and ordered all bars to close on Friday. He also ordered restaurants to reduce operating capacity. This comes just a day after Abbott hit the ‘pause’ button on the Lone Star state’s reopening while at the same time telling Texans that going “backward” and closing down businesses was “the last thing we want to do.” But today Abbott said, “It is clear that the rise in cases is largely driven by certain types of activities, including Texans congregating in bars. The actions in this executive order are essential to our mission to swiftly contain this virus and protect public health.” And in Arizona, there’s alarming news for those who continue to maintain COVID-19 only affects the elderly or ill. Drive-up sites in Arizona are being swarmed by people asking to be tested, and those in the 20 to 44 age range make up nearly half of all cases. In Florida, the median age of residents testing positive for coronavirus is now 35-years-old, down from 65 in March.
News Round-Up: June 25, 2020

• Fox News: Former Vice President Joe Biden tops Donald Trump by 9 points, 49-40 percent, in a Fox News survey of Florida registered voters. That’s up from a 3-point edge in April. If Trump loses Florida and any other state he won in 2016, that’s the whole ballgame. • Today: A surprise birthday party last month (which had 25 attendees) has ended up with 18 members of a Texas family being diagnosed with COVID-19, including a couple in their 80s and a cancer patient. Texas health officials reported a record 4,389 hospitalizations and 5,551 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday. • Gallup Polling: More Americans (70%) say marijuana is more ‘morally acceptable’ than same-sex relationships (66%). The difference is mainly among – surprise – conservatives who approve of marijuana by 51% but only 43% give a thumbs up to gay/lesbian relationships. • Instagram: Do I really have to add anything here…?
News Round-Up: June 21, 2020

• Digital Journal: The Amazon Video series After Forever scored three trophies including “Best Drama Series” at the 2020 Indie Series Awards on Thursday. The second season of the acclaimed series is nominated for six 2020 Daytime Emmy Awards including “Outstanding Digital Drama Series.” • ABC News: Florida continued to set record-breaking numbers of COVID-19 cases, with an additional 4,049 new cases reported Saturday. There were an additional 40 Florida resident deaths related to COVID-19, according to the state’s Department of Health. On Friday, Florida reported what was then its record-high one-day increase of 3,822 cases. • Out: In an emotional video message posted to his Instagram account, Grammy-nominated, Spanish singer-songwriter Pablo Alborán (top photo) publicly opened about his sexuality, and how he is coming out as a proud gay man. “Today, I want my voice to be louder and for it to have more value and weight. I’m here to tell you that I am homosexual and it’s okay. Life goes on, everything will remain the same, but I’m going to be a little happier than I already am.”
Florida Sets New Coronavirus Case Records 3 Days In A Row

Swing State: Biden Leads Trump By 6 Points In Florida Poll
You see a lot of chatter on social media along the lines of “Ignore the polls, they were all wrong in 2016.” In truth, ALL the polls weren’t wrong. If you look at the RealClearPolitics average of polls at the end of the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton led Trump by an average of 3.2 points. Remember, national polls basically gauge the popular vote. Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1 points, off by a point which just about every polling organization would give you as margin of error. My point being national polling might give a sense of the electorate at a given time but it won’t predict the election. If you want to follow the race, watch the six or seven swing states (Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, Minnesota) that will decide the election. I say “decide” because let’s face it, we know California and New York will go blue. We know Tennessee and Indiana will go red. Which brings me to today’s polling from Florida, where Trump beat Hillary by just 1.2 points. According to a Florida Atlantic University poll released today, former Vice President Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 6 points in the Sunshine State. The survey, conducted May 8-12 shows Biden with 53 percent support while Trump garnered 47 percent. The same poll in March showed Trump with a slight lead, 51 percent to 49.
FLORIDA Biden 53% (+6) Trump 47% Florida Atlantic University 5/8-12
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 15, 2020
Shopper Goes Cray-Cray Over Face Mask Rule “False Flag Fake Pandemic”
A shopper in Florida went totally cray-cray when he tried to enter a Publix grocery store located in Miami Beach but refused to wear a face mask due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. His profanity-laced rant was captured by a code enforcement officer’s body cam. “This is a false flag fake pandemic,” the man screams at the enforcement officer. “You are in violation of my f**king constitutional rights and my civil rights. I’ve already f**king warned you. F**king expect it. I’m filing a f**king class-action lawsuit. You can take your fake f**king global terroristic false flag attack and shove it up your motherf**king ass. You’re terrorists. You’re in violation of my constitutional and civil rights. Fuck you, motherf**ker. There’s no pandemic. I’m filing a f**king lawsuit. I have a right to buy groceries without being forced to participate in your f**king terrorism. F**k you.” “Excuse me – you need to wear a mask,” asked the officer as the man turned to go. “Do you understand that – to come in the store?” “You’re violating my constitutional rights,” shrieks the man. “Well, this is private property,” replied the officer. The idiot continued his conspiracy theory screed: “This private property has food. I have a right to buy food without being forced to participate in a fake global false flag pandemic. There’s no pandemic. F–k you. You motherf–kers are going to get f–kin’ mass arrested and f–kin’ executed for f–kin’ terrorism. F–k you!”
Man trying to shop at Miami Beach Publix without mask goes on profanity-laced rant about “false flag fake pandemic” at code enforcement officer #BecauseMiami pic.twitter.com/r3d5z59vIb
— Billy Corben (@BillyCorben) May 7, 2020