You see a lot of chatter on social media along the lines of “Ignore the polls, they were all wrong in 2016.”
In truth, ALL the polls weren’t wrong.
If you look at the RealClearPolitics average of polls at the end of the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton led Trump by an average of 3.2 points. Remember, national polls basically gauge the popular vote.
Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1 points, off by a point which just about every polling organization would give you as margin of error.
My point being national polling might give a sense of the electorate at a given time but it won’t predict the election.
If you want to follow the race, watch the six or seven swing states (Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, Minnesota) that will decide the election. I say “decide” because let’s face it, we know California and New York will go blue. We know Tennessee and Indiana will go red.
Which brings me to today’s polling from Florida, where Trump beat Hillary by just 1.2 points.
According to a Florida Atlantic University poll released today, former Vice President Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 6 points in the Sunshine State.
The survey, conducted May 8-12 shows Biden with 53 percent support while Trump garnered 47 percent.
The same poll in March showed Trump with a slight lead, 51 percent to 49.
Biden 53% (+6)
Florida Atlantic University 5/8-12
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 15, 2020