The Cook Political Report, considered one of the most accurate data/poll crunchers out there, has updated its electoral college outlook, most significantly moving Florida from Toss-up status to Leans Democratic.
We’ve come to think of the Sunshine State as a 50/50 proposition since the winner of the state hasn’t carried it by more than 5 points since 2000. And in four of the last five presidential elections, the race was decided by 3 points or less.
But the most recent poll, via Quinnipiac University, shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 13 points – 51% to 38%.
Quinnipiac’s final 2016 Florida poll showed a dead heat; Trump came out on top by less than 2 points.
In fact, the Real Clear Politics average of Florida polls puts Biden 7 points ahead of the Donald.
It’s worth noting that a victory for Trump without Florida becomes extremely difficult.
Read more from The Cook Political Report’s current perspective here.