Democrats Mail-In Votes Outpace Republicans In Battleground States

Michelle Obama encouraging voting by mail (photo: Jocelyn Augustino/Obama for America)
We all know Donald Trump has bad-mouthed and demonized voting by mail because Democrats tend to use the voting method more than Republicans. Plus, with the ongoing pandemic, Dems have (in general) been more likely to embrace safety guidelines regarding the COVID-19 crisis than Repubs. Which brings me to these tweets. While we don’t know which presidential candidate received votes in the returned ballots, if the majority of ballots are for the party aligned with the voter, you can see why Trump has been so vocal about mail-in ballots. As of today: • Florida – Democrats 791,730; Republicans 450,447; No Party 287,704 • North Carolina – Democrats 238,789; Republicans 81,913; No Party 142,633 • Maine – Democrats 56,623; Republicans 16,623; No Party 18,502 • Iowa – Democrats 59,768; Republicans 23,247; No Party 12,917 • Pennsylvania – Democrats 198,448; Republicans 42,447; No party 19,448 As Amy Siskind says below, we need to build up these “cushions” because the Trumpers will show up as well.

Battleground State Polls: Pennsylvania, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Arizona

As always, we take polling with a grain of salt, but these battleground state polls may be of interest: • Pennsylvania – Monmouth University Polling – Joe Biden holds a 12-point lead over Donald Trump among all registered voters in Pennsylvania (54% – 42%) and anywhere from an 8-point to 11-point lead among likely voters. This marks an improvement from Biden’s single-digit lead in a Monmouth poll just over one month ago.

• Florida – University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab – 51 percent of voters indicated they will be voting for Joe Biden compared to 45 percent of voters who said they would vote for President Donald Trump. (3,142 registered likely voters – 39 percent Republican, 38 percent Democrat, and 22 percent signaled no party affiliation). • Nevada and Ohio – New York Times/Siena College Poll – Biden leads 48 percent to 42 percent among likely voters in Nevada and 45 to 44 percent in Ohio, the polls found. Six percent of Nevada voters and 7 percent of Ohioans said they remain undecided.

• Arizona – Data Orbital – Biden leads Trump 47.7 percent to 43.2 percent in Arizona, with 6.5 percent saying they were undecided. The poll included 39 percent Republicans and 33 percent Democrats.

Biden Will Attend Town Hall Event In Miami Hosted By NBC News

Former Vice President Joe Biden (image via campaign)
Deadline reports that former Vice President Joe Biden will participate in a Town Hall event hosted by NBC News’s Lester Holt on October 5 in Miami, Florida. The event was announced following last night’s wild debate between Biden and Donald Trump. Biden previously participated in a similar event earlier this month in Scranton, Pennsylvania, hosted by CNN. Socially distanced attendees took part from the safety of their cars. NBC News has also extended an invitation to Trump to do a similar event. Trump took part in an ABC News Town Hall in September. Candidates and their campaigns favor such events because taking questions from ‘everyday people’ can offer an appealing connection to voters.

Florida: Governor Lifts All Coronavirus Restrictions

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
From the Miami Herald:

Gov. Ron DeSantis lifted all restrictions on restaurants and other businesses in Florida on Friday, and banned local fines against people who refuse to wear masks as he seeks to reopen the state’s economy despite the spread of the coronavirus.

The Republican governor’s order unleashed fresh debate in the politically divided state, where pandemic responses have become intertwined with the upcoming presidential election.

DeSantis, a major ally of President Donald Trump, acknowledged that the pandemic is far from over, but he said the threat has eased and the time has come to reopen for business.

Florida added 2,847 confirmed coronavirus cases on Friday, pushing the statewide total since March 1 to 695,887. The state also announced 120 new virus deaths, pushing its total to 14,038. Hospitalizations declined by 34 to 2,137 people.

While local jurisdictions can still impose some restrictions they are not allowed to limit restaurants to reopen at less than 50% capacity. Local regulators will also have to justify limiting any restaurants to less than 100 percent. Today’s order from DeSantis also blocks cities and counties from collecting fines on people who don’t wear face masks, basically nullifying local mask ordinances. Broward County Mayor Dale Holness announced today that restaurants in his county are now allowed to reopen bar counters. BUT alcohol may not be allowed to be served in those areas, customers need to social distance 6-feet apart and plexiglass barriers would need to installed.

Trump: ‘I’m The Best Thing That Ever Happened To Puerto Rico’

(photo: public domain – Flickr/WhiteHouse)
Forty-six days before the presidential election, and with a very tight race in battleground state Florida (I’ll get to that), the Trump administration has suddenly announced a new $13 billion aid package to help rebuild Puerto Rico which was decimated by Hurricane Maria in 2017. The Hill reports the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) will award $9.6 billion in grants to help rebuild the Puerto Rico Electrical Power Authority addressing repairs to electrical substations, power generation systems and transmission lines. Additionally, $2 billion will be targeted to rebuilding the U.S. territory’s school buildings and educational facilities. During a press briefing today, Donald Trump told reporters, “I have to say in a very nice way, very respectful way, I’m the best thing that ever happened to Puerto Rico. Nobody even close.” Hold the phone… You may recall this is the same man who, in November 2018, told congressional leaders he didn’t want anymore relief funds going to Puerto Rico. He also claimed officials in Puerto Rico inflated Hurrican Maria’s death toll in an effort to make him look bad. In June 2019, when Congress was finally able to pass additional relief funds for Puerto Rico, Trump attempted to take credit for the move even though he’d worked to block such funding. At the press event today, Trump tried to say “Democrats don’t want to see” aid to Puerto Rico passed, but the Democratic-led House passed billions in aid to Puerto Rico in February amid Republican objections. Now, I’d sooner bite my tongue than be cynical, but it’s a fact that thousands of Puerto Ricans migrated to Florida after the devastation of Hurricane Maria. And in a race where every vote counts, the timing of this new funding certainly is convenient. Real Clear Politics average of polls in Florida shows Democrat Joe Biden just 1.6 points ahead of the Donald. If Trump loses the Sunshine State’s 29 electoral votes, his path to winning becomes VERY tight.

Poll: Biden Leads In Battleground State Of Florida

A new poll by Monmouth University of battleground state Florida shows former Vice President Joe Biden holds a 3 to 5 point lead over Donald Trump in Florida, depending on a range of likely voter models.

Among all registered voters in Florida, the race for president stands at 50% for Biden and 45% for Trump. Under a likely voter scenario with a somewhat higher level of turnout than in 2016, the race is unchanged at 50% for Biden and 45% for Trump. The margin narrows slightly to 49% Biden and 46% Trump when using a likely voter model with lower turnout.

A notable stat in the new survey shows Trump leading Biden by four points – 50 to 46 – among active military or veteran voters. In 2016, Trump won the military vote by double digits. Among registered voters, 47% say they have a favorable view of Biden and 44% have an unfavorable opinion of him. But Trump’s favorable numbers are underwater with 41% reporting a favorable view of the president and 51% having an unfavorable opinion of him. The Real Clear Politics average of recent Florida polls shows Biden leading by 1.6 points. FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 60% chance of winning in November. The last two presidential elections in Florida were decided by a single percentage point. If Trump were to lose the Sunshine State’s 29 electoral votes, he would have a very difficult path to victory.

News Round-Up: August 11, 2020

Garrett Magee and his big…rooster on Bravo’s ‘Backyard Envy’
Some news stories you might have missed: • InstaHunks: Don’t miss Garrett Magee (above) and company in a new episode of Backyard Envy tonight. Garrett says “tune in for gardening tips, drama, and a big 🐓.” • Out: A 57-year-old man was disowned by his 90-year-old father after the dad discovered his son was gay. “It’s about this homosexuality,” McPherson recalled his father saying. “Your mother and I can’t condone that. You are not to contact us in any way ever again.” • Instinct Magazine: A gay man was denied entry to an Arkansas casino because he was carrying a bag the resort deemed a “purse.” Y’all, it wasn’t that big AND it was Louis Vuitton. They should welcome the guy – he has money to spend. • Tampa Bay Times: Florida logged a new record for the most coronavirus deaths announced in a day with 277 on Tuesday. Tuesday’s record brought the statewide death toll to 8,685 people, according to the Florida Department of Health. #SoMuchWinning • Edge Media: A British heterosexual couple was sentenced in connection with a plot to blackmail a husband and father who had been “struggling” with his sexuality. After extorting over £5,000, the victim went to the police. • Out Music: A new artist to me, London based pop singer Le Fil, drops his latest single and music video, “Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is.” The upbeat, colorful video pairs well with the catchy hook and 60s-inspired harmonies.

Florida Hits New Record For Weekly COVID-19 Hospitalizations

Florida ends the week hitting a new record for weekly reported hospitalizations due to COVID-19. From the Orlando Sentinel:

From Sunday to Sunday, the state saw 3,355 hospitalizations, a new record for COVID-19 admissions in one week. In the span of five days alone — Tuesday to Saturday — the state reported more than 500 new hospitalizations per day, including a high of 621 on Wednesday.

To date, 30,505 people have been hospitalized in Florida, the state’s COVID-19 dashboard shows, up 254 more than a day earlier.

From June through mid-July in Florida, there were 207 new hospitalizations a day on average. That has spiked to a daily average of 447 since mid-July.

To date, 8,186 people have died in the Sunshine State from COVID-19.

Self-Proclaimed White Supremacist & Trump Supporter Slaps, Punches Woman

Nicholas Arnold Schock (screen captures)
A self-proclaimed white supremacist went on a loud, curse-laden rant at a restaurant in Sarasota County, Florida, and then slapped and punched a female employee. From Law & Crime:

The man was identified as Nicholas Arnold Schock, 36. He was booked into the Sarasota County jail on a count each of battery, and disturbing the peace. It is unclear if he has an attorney at this time. Records viewed by Law&Crime show the Wachula-resident was arrested Friday in the city of Nokomis. He was held on a $620 bond.

In the video, the man identified as Schock demands “Call Donald Trump.” He goes on like that.

“I’m a white supremacist,” he said. “The Aryan nation will rule the world!” he yells at the camera. “People covered in tattoos are going to be my closest relatives, I promise you.”

“Hey, we’ve got children in here,” a bystander said.

“I don’t give a fuck,” the suspect said. “Call Donald Trump, please.”

A bystander in a light cyan shirt tries to lead him off.

“Do you know Donald Trump?” the suspect said. “If you don’t know Donald Trump, I’m not going nowhere. I will butt-fuck this bitch on the table right now.”

He ambled off, and a woman stepped in front of him with her arms spread. The woman apparently said something about there being kids there, but the suspect then slapped her in the face. Bystanders rushed the man and took him down. One of them cinched in a chokehold.

Here’s the video clip. Warning: graphic violence.

Insurance Company Denies Benefits To Family Of Sheriff’s Deputy After COVID-19 Death

L-R Deputy Shannon Bennett his fiancé, Jonathan Frey
The family of Shannon Bennett, the gay Broward Sheriff’s deputy who died from COVID-19 in April, has been denied insurance benefits covering his death. A 12-year veteran deputy, Bennett became the first South Florida first responder to be killed by COVID-19. Insurance giant AIG denied the family’s claim for accidental death in the line of duty last month.  According to Local10News, Bennett’s family received a letter from AIG saying the company had reviewed the claim and determined Bennett’s death didn’t occur in the line of duty. AIG’s position, according to the letter, is that Bennett’s “death was caused in whole or in part by, or resulted in whole or in part from sickness or disease, which is specifically excluded under this policy.” Shannon’s brother, Darren Bennett told Local 10 News, “Essentially, while my family is grappling with trying to get our bearings back, this type of letter comes in and, of course, it floors us.” The Broward County Sherriff’s Office sent an appeal on behalf of the family as the BSO believes Bennett, who was 39-years-old, contracted COVID-19 while on duty. That appeal was denied a couple of weeks later.  AIG acknowledged that Bennett did likely contract the virus while in the line of duty, but held firm on the decision not to deny his benefits. Broward Sheriff Gregory Tony released a statement which read in part:

“One of the most difficult tragedies to endure in this profession is a line of duty death. We are committed to helping the Bennett family. We pay thousands of dollars each year for this insurance, and I’m extremely disappointed that AIG is denying this claim. We will exhaust all appeals.”

Bennett was engaged and planned to marry his fiancé, Jonathan Frey, in December. The fight over Bennett’s insurance benefits is just the latest chapter in a series of ugliness surrounding his death.  NBC News reports that Dale Engle,  the South Florida police chief who came under fire in April for a homophobic rant referencing Bennett, has tendered his resignation after officers brought the incident up to the Florida police union. According to several deputies in attendance, Engle ordered his employees to line up in formation in a department parking lot and began to berate officers who raised concerns about coronavirus protocol.  During the rant, Engle referenced Bennett’s death telling the officers Bennett died because he was “a homosexual who attended homosexual events.”  He was placed on administrative leave, and this week Engle resigned over the incident. Good.