A new poll by Monmouth University of battleground state Florida shows former Vice President Joe Biden holds a 3 to 5 point lead over Donald Trump in Florida, depending on a range of likely voter models.
Among all registered voters in Florida, the race for president stands at 50% for Biden and 45% for Trump.
Under a likely voter scenario with a somewhat higher level of turnout than in 2016, the race is unchanged at 50% for Biden and 45% for Trump.
The margin narrows slightly to 49% Biden and 46% Trump when using a likely voter model with lower turnout.
A notable stat in the new survey shows Trump leading Biden by four points – 50 to 46 – among active military or veteran voters. In 2016, Trump won the military vote by double digits.
Among registered voters, 47% say they have a favorable view of Biden and 44% have an unfavorable opinion of him. But Trump’s favorable numbers are underwater with 41% reporting a favorable view of the president and 51% having an unfavorable opinion of him.
The Real Clear Politics average of recent Florida polls shows Biden leading by 1.6 points. FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 60% chance of winning in November.
The last two presidential elections in Florida were decided by a single percentage point.
If Trump were to lose the Sunshine State’s 29 electoral votes, he would have a very difficult path to victory.
Likely voters, high turnout:
— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) September 15, 2020