Back in 2012, Donald Trump didn’t care for the Electoral College so much. I’m sure he has a different take today.
The above tweet-storm came after Mitt Romney lost the 2012 election. Not sure why he rails at popular vote/electoral college construct since Obama won both that year.
Here’s a link to one of his rants:
(h/t Boy Culture)
Larry Sabato, of University of Virginia’s respected Center for Politics, is predicting Hillary Clinton will become the nation’s 45th president by winning 322 electoral votes, well past the required 270 votes.
“Not even on Clinton’s worst campaign days did we ever have her below 270 electoral votes,” the team at University of Virginia wrote.
The team predicts that Clinton will win Tuesday with 322 electoral votes compared to Trump’s 216 and that the U.S. Senate will be tied 50-50 with Vice President Tim Kaine serving as its tie breaker.
Despite some wobbles along the way, we’ve favored Hillary Clinton as the 45th president of the United States ever since we did our first handicapping of the Clinton vs. Donald Trump matchup back in late March. The edge we had for her back then has eroded a little bit at the end — we had her as high as 352 electoral votes, and in the final tally we have her down to 322, with 216 for Trump. If this is how it turns out, Trump will fare 10 electoral votes better than Mitt Romney, and Clinton will do 10 electoral votes worse than Barack Obama in 2012 — 11 or 12 if rogue Washington electors follow through on their threat to refuse to vote for Clinton (but we can’t assume that at this time).
The two closest states here are North Carolina and Ohio. For a long time, it appeared that Florida was a shakier state for Clinton than the Tar Heel State, but our sources indicate that the Sunshine State looks somewhat brighter for her now, although both should be tight. Meanwhile, Ohio may be a real Toss-up state. Buckeye history and demography point to Trump, but Clinton’s ground operation could come through for her in the end. If Ohio does vote for Trump while he is losing the White House, it will be just the third time in 31 elections that Ohio will have voted for the loser.
Florida may tell us a lot about whether we’re going to have a long night or a short one. About two-thirds of voters will likely have cast their ballots early, so the vote count should not take that long. If Clinton wins the state by two or three points and is declared the victor early on, it’ll be hard to find a plausible path to Trump victory. If Trump captures the state, though, then we’ll have to see if her firewall states, like the aforementioned states of Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania, as well as Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia, come through for her.
Overall, we’re picking a net gain of four for Democrats in the Senate, which results in a 50-50 tie in Congress’ upper chamber. If we’re right about the presidential contest, that means Vice President Tim Kaine (D) will be breaking ties after Inauguration. Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA) would appoint Kaine’s replacement in the Senate (long-serving Rep. Bobby Scott, an African American, is the likeliest choice)
Time for Dems to freak out again in the aftermath of the latest “email scandal that isn’t really a scandal” whipped up by FBI Director James Comey.
But as Matt Rettenmund at Boy Culture points out, Clinton has a solid firewall of at least 272 electoral votes. Look at that map – do you really think she’s not going to win at least all the blue states above?
That’s without Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada and Iowa.
I’m still thinking she takes Nevada and North Carolina, which is another 21 EVs. Just saying…
Reuter’s “State of the Nation” project is predicting Democrat Hillary Clinton to win in a landslide with 326 electoral votes.
In the last week, there has been little movement. Clinton leads Donald Trump in most of the states that Trump would need should he have a chance to win the minimum 270 votes needed to win. According to the project, she has a better than 95 percent chance of winning, if the election was held this week. The mostly likely outcome would be 326 votes for Clinton to 212 for Trump.
Trump came off his best debate performance of the campaign Wednesday evening but the polling consensus still showed Clinton winning the third and final face-off on prime-time TV. Trump disputes those findings.
And some national polls had the race tightening a wee bit this week though others had Clinton maintaining her solid lead. But the project illustrates that the broader picture remains bleak for Trump with 17 days to go until the Nov. 8 election.
Reuters notes that Trump has lost ground in Arizona and Utah. Conservative Independent Utah native Evan McMullin is currently leading in polls there. Some pundits believe it possible for the independent to win the state’s 6 electoral votes.
Today’s projection from RealClearPolitics projects if the election were held today (making a decision based on current polling), Hillary Clinton would win with 340 electoral votes versus Donald Trump’s 198.
NPR’s Domenico Montanaro tweeted this completely plausible electoral college map showing Republican winning Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, and still losing to Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In reality, I think Hillary will probably win those three states, but this example shows how far back Trump is in the electoral college count.
Huffington Post’s Sam Stein posits via Twitter that “If you assume that Colo, Va, Pennsylvania and NH are off the board — as #s suggest — then the election’s over.”
Recent polls show Hillary Clinton ahead in those vital swing states by an average of 11%, 8%, 9% and 8% respectively according to Real Clear Politics.
That takes Clinton to 273, past the winning 270 mark, without electoral vote rich states Florida or Ohio.
It’s notable, however, that Clinton currently leads in those states as well by smaller margins of about 3%. The latest CBS News Battleground Tracker poll puts Clinton up by 5% in Florida.
Super-stats guy Nate Silver currently puts Clinton’s odds of winning the White House at almost 89%.
More good news for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton as NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls show her leading in the vital swing states of Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado:
In the key battleground of Florida, which President Obama won in 2008 and 2012, Clinton is ahead of Trump by five points among registered voters, 44 percent to 39 percent, with the rest saying neither, other or they’re undecided.
In North Carolina, which Obama won in 2008 but lost in 2012, the former secretary of state has a nine-point advantage over Trump, 48 percent to 39 percent.
In Virginia, Clinton’s lead is 13 points, 46 percent to 33 percent.
And in Colorado, the Democrat is ahead by a whopping 14 points, 46 percent to 32 percent.
Earlier results from NBC News polls showed Clinton ahead in swing states Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Ed Demaria, of NBC News, points out that if you just add up the states where Clinton has a lead of 9 points or more, she’s already past the required 270 electoral votes to win the White House. That’s not counting states like Michigan or Wisconsin which are traditionally blue states; or Nevada or Florida with heavy concentrations of Hispanic voters which are breaking decidedly for Clinton.
If you’re a political junkie like me, and you’d like to see how your thoughts on the current presidential election plays out in the Electoral College, head over to 270ToWin.com.
You can see the current state of the race including toss up states, you can see what the results were in past elections and you can click to create how you think the race will end up.
The map below represents what I think the result would be if the election were held today. I gave Ohio and Iowa to the Trumpster due to the current state of multiple polls in those states.
I do think it’s possible Hillary could win Ohio and Iowa on Election Day. If you flip those, you get 332 Hillary/208 Trump.
It’s important to point out that, in great part, the election will hinge on the ten swing states of Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.
I encourage folks to share your results in the comments below.
From NPR’s Domenico Montanaro:
Hillary Clinton would have a significant electoral advantage over Donald Trump in the general election, based on an NPR analysis.
The Democratic former secretary of state would start out with already exactly enough electoral votes to win the presidency, 270-191, based on states considered safe, likely and to lean toward either candidate. The ratings, which will be updated at least monthly until Election Day, are based on fundamentals — historical trends and demographics, plus reporting and polling (both public and private).