Tag: 2020 election

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Biden Continues To Lead In Final Pennsylvania Poll

This is post is to be considered as an encouragement to make sure you get out and vote and not in any way to lead to complacency. We did that four years ago. Don’t do it again. From Pittsburgh’s CBS News affiliate KDKA:

A new Monmouth University poll has former Vice President Joe Biden with a 5-point to 7-point lead over President Donald Trump among likely voters in Pennsylvania.

According to the poll results, Joe Biden leads President Trump by a 51% to 44% margin among likely voters, if vote turnout is high.

In a low turnout scenario, which could happen if a large number of mail-in ballots were to be rejected, Biden leads President Trump by a 50% to 45% margin among likely voters.

The new survey indicates Biden’s support from young voters and people of color is helping to offset Trump’s gains among senior voters and the most competitive counties in the commonwealth. Also – the ongoing pandemic is affecting the election as more voters trust Biden to handle the coronavirus pandemic than Trump.

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Parody: Randy Rainbow Ponders ‘How Will You Vote?’

Randy Rainbow turns in this musical rumination on which presidential candidate to vote for (hint – yeah, you already know the answer) set to the tune of Enchanted’s “How Will You Know?” Rainbow first ticks off some of Donald Trump’s, umm, qualities:

Well, does he give a flying f**k about whether you live or die? Cover-up his crimes and wish them all away? Does he lock children in cages? Act like Nazis are okay? That’s how you know, that’s how you know that he’s the one.

And then’s there’s his assessment of Joe Biden:

Does he leave you little clues that let you know he’s not insane? Have a plan in place you know he’ll carry through? If he isn’t porkin’ Putin and he pays his taxes, too That’s how you know, that’s how you know he’s the one.

In the end, it all comes down to “One’s an incompetent toddler, the other one’s name is Joe, that’s why it’s Joe – He’s the one.”

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Tips To Stay Sane Through Election 2020

As the next several days could be turbulent (to say the least), Axios CEO Jim Vandehei penned a list of helpful hints to help cope with the upcoming social and political volatility we have ahead of us. Just a few bullet points that are definitely worth keeping in mind: • Vote and then chill until late Tuesday night. There’ll be dumb rumors, wild speculation and armchair projections, all of it meaningless. • Don’t expect a quick, clear winner Tuesday night. We can’t stress enough the chance of it taking days to fully count mail-in and absentee votes, to determine the real outcome in places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. • Brace for the possibility of a “Red Mirage.” Because polling and modeling show Republicans are more likely to vote in person and Democrats are more likely to vote by mail, early counts could look heavier for the GOP than the final result, when absentee votes are all counted. So the trends could look more Trump-friendly than the final outcome. This is not a partisan belief; it’s a simple fact. (See the full “Red Mirage” segment.) • Don’t share social-media posts that aren’t from a source you trust and know well. Period. Too many people share too much garbage too often. Measure twice, tweet once (or, better yet, never). • Don’t overreact. You might see images on cable or social media of protests, or what seem like massive voter intimidation or issues. This can often seem bigger or more widespread than it is. Top officials tell us they fear Russia or other actors plan to amplify even the smallest issues to sow chaos. So don’t assume the worst. Click here to read more from Vandehei.

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Texas Republicans Ask Judge To Throw Out 117K Legally Cast Ballots

'Welcome to Texas' sign

Four months ago, the Texas Secretary of State approved drive-thru voting, informing Harris County (we’re talking Houston) election officials that they could use it for the general election. Now, after over 117,000 voters in the heavily Democratic county have used the process, Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to declare the practice ‘unconstitutional’ and throw out all of those ballots. From Mark Joseph Stern at Slate:

Because Texas strictly limits mail-in voting, Harris County—which has a population of over 4.7 million people—has sought to make in-person voting safer during the pandemic. Harris County Clerk Chris Hollins, who runs the county’s elections, established 10 drive-thru voting locations for the 2020 general election.

Drivers pull into a large tent, where election officials confirm their identity, then give them privacy to vote. The process has proved wildly popular.

Harris County raised the idea of drive-thru voting in June, and Texas Secretary of State Ruth Hughs promptly approved it. The county tested it in July and approved it in August. Yet Republicans did not contest drive-thru voting in court until Oct. 15, two days after the start of early voting.

On that day, the Harris County Republican Party, joined by several GOP operatives, asked the Texas Supreme Court to halt drive-thru voting. The court, which is entirely Republican, refused, over a single dissent.

So Republicans ran to federal court. On Wednesday, they asked U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen to declare drive-thru voting unconstitutional and void every ballot cast this way.

Judge Hanen has scheduled an emergency hearing on Monday. Over 117,000 Texans cast their votes via drive-thru venues because it was approved. Now, Texas Republicans want those votes thrown out a day before the election?

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Las Vegas Homophobe Threatens To Blow Up Business Over Pride Flag & Biden Sign

On Thursday, an anonymous man phoned MILK+T, an LGBTQ-owned boba tea shop in Las Vegas, and threatened to ‘blow up’ the business over a Pride flag and a Biden/Harris sign on display. Caroline Sadorra, the manager of the tea shop’s Las Vegas branch, answered the call. Sadorra told local NBC News affiliate KSNV that while the Pride flag was a regular fixture at the business, the Biden/Harris sign was left there after a recent campaign event by Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV).

(screen capture via KSNV)
In a recording of the two phone conversations shared on social media, the man asked Sadorra, “I’m wondering why a f**king company would have a f**king faggot sign outside your store? You have a candidate that’s running for the new world order. What’s wrong with you?” When the manager tried to bring the call to a close, he cursed at her, “Go f**k yourself, losers!” Five minutes later the man called again having decided that the tea shop had an “anti-American owner,” and promised to “blow up” the store before hanging up.

One of the owners, Beyah Delmundo, told KSNV she plans to file a police report with the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department on Monday morning. The business’s phone recorded the caller’s phone number. Delmundo says she considered removing the Biden/Harris sign after the call, but decided, “Right now is not the time to be silent and to be shy about what you stand for.” In sharing the recording on Facebook, MILK+T wrote, in part:

To attack us was simply unwarranted. It shocked us and made us realize how much hate there is in our country. More than ever, we have to come together. Choose kindness and love, not the route of tearing another apart and threatening violence because of our differences.

LGBTQ rights ARE human rights. At MILK+T, we believe that Black Lives Matter. Women’s rights are human rights. No human is illegal. Science is real. Love is love, and kindness is everything.

Even though this shook us to our core, we stand firmly on what we believe. It takes courage to stand for what you believe in, and despite everything, we have courage and hope in the good there is in the world.

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News Round-Up: October 30, 2020

Kyle Rittenhouse (image via Twitter)
Some news items you might have missed: • Journal-Sentinel: An Illinois judge on Friday denied Kyle Rittenhouse’s (above) request for release and ordered him extradited to Wisconsin, where he faces serious charges in Kenosha County for killing two people and wounding a third during unrest in Kenosha in August. • Reuters: The U.S. State Department has (finally) backed down from legal battles over the citizenship of gay couples’ children who were born to surrogates overseas. The cases involved a family whose daughter had been born to a surrogate in Canada and a family whose daughter was born to a surrogate in England. The gay couples had sued the State Department, claiming that their sexuality had led to the rejection of their children’s applications for passports. • Out Music: Ben Hazlewood’s “The Way You Do” is a loping, easy listen that reflects the deep emotional ties we share with those we love. Hazlewood wrote the song for his nan and expresses that “love isn’t limited to romance,” but also for those you care about deeply including family and friends. Raised on artists like Jim Morrison, David Bowie, Stevie Nicks, and Janis Joplin, Hazlewood delivers powerful, plaintive vocals amid an emotional guitar-driven soundscape. I like. Follow Hazlewood on Instagram here.

• Bloomberg News: Through Thursday, over 9 million Texans had cast ballots in early voting – that’s more than the 8.97 million votes cast in total in 2016, a record high at the time. Neither party knows who will benefit most from the surge, but it has put the reliably Republican state in play as a full-out battleground in the campaign’s final days. • Yahoo News: Joe Biden would hammer Donald Trump in the US presidential election if it were Europeans heading to the ballot box. Among 5 countries surveyed  — Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain — the Germans were the most enthusiastic Biden supporters, with 66% saying they would back the Democrat if allowed to vote. Only 8% of Germans said they would vote for Trump. Trump’s best score was in Italy, where 15% would make their mark for the GOP candidate. • Twitter: On the campaign trail in Wisconsin tonight, Donald Trump perpetuated the myth that we somehow lost the ability to say ‘Merry Christmas’ at some point – and HE brought it back!?! Trump also told his sheep followers that there will be ‘no electricity’ if Joe Biden wins the presidency…?

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Tweet Of The Day: CNN Shades Kirstie Alley

Kirstie Alley on Fox News (screen capture)
Big props to CNN’s Communications team for the take-no-prisoners shade thrown former actress Kirstie Alley’s way on the Twitterverse after she criticized the news network for covering a pandemic that’s responsible for nearly 230,000 American deaths.

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Coronavirus Cases On The Rise In Every Battleground State

7-day rolling average of cases as of Oct. 28 (graphic via Washington Post)
Coronavirus cases are on the rise in every battleground state with just four days to the presidential election. From the Washington Post:

Coronavirus cases are surging in every competitive state before Election Day, offering irrefutable evidence against President Trump’s closing argument that the pandemic is nearly over and restrictions are no longer necessary.

In the 13 states deemed competitive by the Cook Political Report, the weekly average of new cases reported daily has jumped 45 percent over the past two weeks, from fewer than 21,000 on Oct. 14 to more than 30,000 on Oct. 28.

Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania have all hit new weekly average highs in recent days, and in Florida and Georgia, case counts are growing again after having fallen from summer highs.

According to the COVID Tracking Project, there are currently 46,905 Americans who are hospitalized with COVID-19, the highest number since August 14, and up about 50% from a month ago. Meanwhile, Donald Trump continues to hold campaign rallies across the nation where he tells supporters the U.S. has “rounded the corner” regarding the coronavirus. More at the Washington Post.

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Report: If Polls Are As Wrong Now As They Were In 2016

The Upshot at the New York Times has adjusted its table of what would happen if the polls were as wrong as they were in 2016.

For the past few months, the table reflected the polling error over the final three weeks. Now, the table reflects the error in the final week of polls in 2016.

From The Upshot:

One reason the polls seemed to miss by so much in 2016: Hillary Clinton had a large lead in the polls conducted two to three weeks before the election. The race tightened in the end, after the third debate and the Comey Letter. There was always a chance that would happen this year, and we wanted to represent that possibility.

Why change now? Well, we’re under a week to go. We’re past the point when the polls showed the race tightening in 2016.

We’re past the third debate. We’re past the Comey Letter. We’re past when the ABC/Post poll showed President Trump ahead nationwide or when Times/Siena and Ann Selzer/Bloomberg showed Mr. Trump ahead in Florida.

All of this is not to say Joe Biden is a lock on winning. Far from it. This is just some consideration on what’s going on in polling today. Follow The Upshot for daily updates here. Whatever you do – make sure you vote! And if possible, do it in person or drop off your ballot in person.

(graphic via NY Times)

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Bloomberg: ‘Cash-Poor’ Trump Campaign Pulls Ads In Florida

Trump walks past reporters with no comment

Trump walks past reporters with no comment
Donald Trump (image via public domain/White House)
Bloomberg News reports Donald Trump’s campaign has “all but pulled its advertising out of Florida, as it stakes its relatively small bank account on the industrial northern states that carried him to victory in 2016.” Team Trump reportedly canceled $5.5 million in ad spending in the Sunshine State although there is still about $350,000 in ad spots still scheduled to run before Election Day. The Trump campaign contends its “organizational strength” will carry the day to victory in Florida. “Trump is now placing his final bet on just 4 battleground states: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio & Pennsylvania,” reports Bloomberg. The media outlet adds that since Labor Day the president has scaled back campaign ad spending by $24 million. At the same time, former Vice President Joe Biden has been outspending Trump at a ratio of 3-1 as he added $197 million to his ad budget.

Update: After I shared this post this morning, Thea McDonald, Deputy National Press Secretary for the Trump Campaign, reached out this response from Tim Murtaugh, Trump 2020 communications director:

“The Bloomberg story is horribly wrong and should never have been written. The campaign, with the RNC coordinated buy, is up with a seven figure buy in Florida on broadcast TV alone. In addition in Florida, we are up with six figures in local cable, six figures in Spanish language, and six figures on radio. Our ad buying week by week in the state has been consistent, and the reporting on this issue demonstrates a clear misunderstanding of how ad buying works (and in some cases a misunderstanding of simple addition and subtraction). Last week we announced a $55 million buy over the final two weeks, which is a 40 percent increase over our previous levels. Just yesterday we added $6 million on top of that for the final week. Including Florida, the Trump campaign is on television in 12 states and also nationally. This is sloppy reporting at the highest level.”

Bloomberg has updated their report adding details and quotes of advertising strategy.

The RNC is picking up some of that slack, buying $4 million in ads beginning last week. It’s now airing an ad in Florida attacking Biden on Medicare, falsely claiming that the Biden health care plan would eliminate private health insurance.