The Upshot at the New York Times has adjusted its table of what would happen if the polls were as wrong as they were in 2016.
For the past few months, the table reflected the polling error over the final three weeks. Now, the table reflects the error in the final week of polls in 2016.
From The Upshot:
One reason the polls seemed to miss by so much in 2016: Hillary Clinton had a large lead in the polls conducted two to three weeks before the election. The race tightened in the end, after the third debate and the Comey Letter. There was always a chance that would happen this year, and we wanted to represent that possibility.
Why change now? Well, we’re under a week to go. We’re past the point when the polls showed the race tightening in 2016.
We’re past the third debate. We’re past the Comey Letter. We’re past when the ABC/Post poll showed President Trump ahead nationwide or when Times/Siena and Ann Selzer/Bloomberg showed Mr. Trump ahead in Florida.
All of this is not to say Joe Biden is a lock on winning. Far from it. This is just some consideration on what’s going on in polling today. Follow The Upshot for daily updates here.
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