Tag: polls

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Polls: Biden Still Leads In Battleground States Post-Conventions

As I often say here on The Randy Report, national polls aren’t much use to the casual political observer because a survey can be skewed with folks in New York or California (where we know the state will go for a Democrat) or Alabama or Kentucky (where we know those electoral votes will go for Trump). If there are a huge number of double-digit leads in national polls, that suggests a certain mood across the nation. Post-national conventions, here’s the latest round-up of polling averages in battleground states where the presidential election will actually be won or lost.

(graphic via RealClearPolitics)
In addition to the above, Quinnipiac University just released a new poll showing Biden with an 8 point lead in Pennsylvania – a must-win state for the Trumpster.

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News Round-Up: August 14, 2020

(screen capture via HBO)
Some news stories you might have missed: • NPR: A new survey from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll shows more than a third of Americans (35%) say they won’t get vaccinated when a vaccine comes available; 60% say they will. The poll also indicates former Vice President Joe Biden now leads Donald Trump 53% to 42%, up from an 8-point advantage at the end of June. • Instinct Magazine: From the director of Call Me By Your Name, HBO announces We Are Who We Are (screen cap above), premiering September 14, a new coming-of-age story about two American teenagers who live on an American military base with their parents in Italy.

• Billings Gazette: Kanye West’s sad, inconsequential bid for the White House is being funded/directed by the Trump campaign to siphon off Black votes from Joe Biden. “You want to help Trump?” one of the organizers called out. “We’re trying to take votes away from creepy Uncle Joe.” • KIT212: Check out Kenneth’s weekly round-up of the what’s what in local LGBTQ publications like Get Out!’s latest issue encouraging folks to ‘Flex Your Vote.’

(via GetOut!)
• Variety: AMC Theatres, for one day only, will offer tickets to select movies for only 15 cents, roughly the equivalent of what it cost to watch a movie in 1920. That’s the year that the company’s founders began operations in Kansas City, Missouri. Note – the offer will be for legacy titles such as “Black Panther” and “The Empire Strikes Back.” • Twitter: Out Teen Wolf/Arrow star Colton Haynes has put in his bid to play the super-hero Iceman in the upcoming reboot of the X-Men movie franchise after hearing rumors Shia LeBeouf was being vetted for the role. Haynes shared a gif of the mutant hero with an emoji of a young guy raising his hand. I totally see Haynes in the role.

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The Power Of Bad Poll Numbers: Trump Tweets Face Mask Photo

Donald Trump (via Twitter)
In what is surely a response to Donald Trump’s poor poll numbers in advance of November’s presidential election, the Donald appears to have done a U-turn and tweeted his support for the use of face masks to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. “We are United in our effort to defeat the Invisible China Virus, and many people say that it is Patriotic to wear a face mask when you can’t socially distance,” tweeted Trump. “There is nobody more Patriotic than me, your favorite President!” This also follows, of course, the COVID-19 deaths of over 140,000 Americans. CDC director Robert Redfield has said the coronavirus outbreak could be “under control” within 4-8 weeks if everyone in the U.S. wore masks.

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Fox News Poll: Voters Trust Biden To Handle COVID-19 Over Trump Bigly

L-R President Donald Trump, former Vice President Joe Biden
The latest polling from Fox News will not be putting a smile on Donald Trump’s face. The survey of 1,104 registered voters shows the coronavirus is the number one issue on the minds of voters and that factors in when asked who Americans want to see in charge of handling the COVID-19 threat. While 51 percent trust former Vice President Joe Biden to handle the pandemic, only 34 percent believe Trump has the stuff to end the health threat. Biden also leads on questions of traits needed to be an effective president like compassion (Biden 56% – Trump 36%), intelligence (Biden 51% – Trump 41%), and judgement (Biden 52% – Trump 40%). Even on the issue of ‘mental soundness,’ which the Trump campaign has tried to characterize Biden as being mentally deficient, the public sees Biden as more in control of his mental faculties than Trump (47% – 43% respectively). That said, with the 2016 presidential election still fresh in our minds, voters know anything can happen. When asked if Trump will be reelected the results were a tie – 45% each side with 10% answering ‘Unsure.’ It’s worth noting, however, that tie is bad news for Trump. Back in February, the Fox News poll found 56% believed Trump would score a second term while only 43% were non-believers. I’m not a ‘national poll’ fan, but since this data comes from Fox News, I will note when asked if the election were held today, 49% said they would cast their ballot for Joe Biden while only 41% would vote Trump. Even with the 3% margin of error that is not good news for the Donald.

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Polls: Biden Leads In Six Vital Battleground States

L-R President Donald Trump, former Vice President Joe Biden
New polling in six battleground states won by Donald Trump in 2016 (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina) offers some disconcerting news for the Trump campaign. The surveys, conducted by the New York Times/Siena College, show former Vice President Joe Biden leading in all six states including double-digit leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The new polling shows: • Biden in the lead in Michigan by 11 points (47-36). Trump won there in 2016 by less than one point. • Wisconsin, where Trump also won by less than 1% nearly four years ago, indicates Biden holds an 11 point lead as well (49-38) • Another ‘less than 1 percent win’ state, Pennsylvania, appears to favor Biden by ten points (50-40) • Florida, where Trump eked out a 1 point win in 2016, shows Biden leading by 6 points (47-41) • Arizona, traditionally a Republican enclave where Trump won by 4 points during the last election, indicates Biden ahead of Trump by 7 points (48-41) • And North Carolina, another 4 point victory for Trump in 2016, shows Biden beating Trump by 9 points (49-40) Note: while the break-down of Democrats/Republicans/Independents polled was close in each swing state, there were more Republicans surveyed in Florida and Wisconsin. So, any claims of ‘weighting’ the polls in favor of Biden wouldn’t hold water. If Biden were to win all six of those states and hold onto those carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016, he would win the presidency with by least 333 electoral votes, far more than the 270 needed, if he won all six of the states surveyed and held those won by Hillary Clinton four years ago. Scoring a win in any three of the six states listed above, however, would be enough to put him over the 270 point threshold to win the White House. Biden currently leads in virtually all national polls by an average of 9.4 points. A separate New York Times/Siena College national poll released this week showed Biden with a 14 point lead nationally (50-36). But as I’ve written many times, national polls don’t really tell the tale of an election that’s predicated on the Electoral College. Keep watching the swing state polling. A margin of plus/minus two or three points is close to a draw, but 6+ shows a clear advantage.

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Poll: Biden Leads Trump By 5 In Swing State Minnesota

L-R Former Vice President Joe Biden, Donald Trump
A new Star Tribune-MPR News-KARE 11 Minnesota poll shows former Vice President and presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 5 points in the swing state of Minnesota Via the Minnesota Star-Tribune:

The survey, which was released on Monday, found that 49 percent of registered Minnesota voters favor Biden in a head-to-head matchup against the president. Forty-four percent said they’d back Trump, while 7 percent said they remained undecided.

The poll indicates that Biden and Trump are in a dead heat among independents, with 42 percent backing Trump and 41 percent the former vice president. Among independent voters, 17 percent said they were undecided.

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Poll: Biden Leads Trump By 9 Points In Senate Battleground States

L-R Former Vice President Joe Biden, Donald Trump
A new poll of voters in six states where Republican senators up for reelection this year are facing some tough races shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 9 points. Hart Research Associates surveyed voters in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Montana, and North Carolina, and found support for Biden at 50% while Trump garnered 41% support. Of the six states, Trump scored 2016 wins in Arizona, Iowa, Montana and North Carolina. Democrats will need to win in four of those states to win a majority in the Senate. The poll showed the Republican incumbents lagging the Democratic challengers by five points – 41 to 46 respectively. The GOP incumbents are Sens. Marth McSally (Ariz.), Cory Gardner (Colo.), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Susan Collins (Maine), Steve Daines (Mont.) and Thom Tillis (N.C.). The poll also asked voters about their feelings on mail-in ballots this fall in light of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Voters in the six battleground states overwhelmingly support the idea with 85% saying a mail option should be available.

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Poll: Biden Leads Trump By 6 Points In Vital Swing State

L-R Former Vice President Joe Biden, Donald Trump
A new poll by the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab shows Donald Trump’s mixed messages and slow response to the ongoing coronavirus health threat is having a negative impact on his standing with voters in the vital swing-state of Florida. Pollsters found that 55% said the federal government has not gone far enough in taking action against COVID-19. The poll found 45% strongly or somewhat approve of the job Trump is doing to address the pandemic, while a majority of 53% disapprove. Asked if the election were held today, who voters would support for president, former Vice President Joe Biden trumped Trump by six points, 46% to 40%. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the president’s top health advisor, scored the highest rating with 85% approval and 6% disapproval among registered Florida voters.

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Trump’s Approval Rating Sinks Amid Coronavirus Debacle

Trump walks past reporters with no comment

Trump walks past reporters with no comment
Donald Trump (image via public domain/White House)
The latest polls show the mixed messaging of the Trump administration is taking a toll on Donald Trump’s job approval rating. Via Mediaite:

An ABC News/Ipsos poll released Friday, 47 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s coronavirus response, while 52 percent of Americans disapprove — a steep drop from the same poll taken just two weeks ago when a whopping 55 percent approved of Trump’s response.

And in Trump’s favorite survey, the Trump-skewing Rasmussen daily tracking poll, his approval rating has dropped four points in a matter of days. The last time Trump was above water in that poll was Feb. 27, when his approval was at 52 percent. But he began this week with a -5 point net unfavorability, and finishes it nine points underwater with 44 percent approving and 53 percent disapproving.

 

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Michigan: Biden Leads Sanders By 15 Points In Final Poll

In the final statewide poll before Michigan voters head to the Democratic primary polls tomorrow, Joe Biden holds a lead over Bernie Sanders in the crucial primary contest according to the Monmouth University Poll.

Among Michigan voters who are likely to participate in the Democratic primary tomorrow, support currently stands at 51% for Biden and 36% for Sanders.

Another 1% back Tulsi Gabbard, 6% say they will vote for a slate of uncommitted delegates, and 2% are undecided.

Biden leads Sanders among both white voters (50% to 36%) and voters of other races (53% to 36%). Biden is winning voters age 50 and over (62% to 24% for Sanders) by a larger margin than Sanders is winning those under 50 years old (49% to 38% for Biden). Women prefer Biden to Sanders (53% to 33%), while men prefer Sanders (49% to 39% for Biden).

There are 147 delegates up for grabs in Tuesday’s Michigan primary. The survey also shows both Democratic White House hopefuls would best Trump today in head-to-head hypothetical match-ups. Biden has a 48% to 41% lead over Trump, while Sanders has a slightly smaller 46% to 41% margin. It’s worth remembering that Trump won Michigan by a scant 10,704 votes four years ago.