Tag: polls

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Georgia Senate Races Could Result In Run-Off Elections

A prosecutor in Georgia is reportedly in the early stages of investigating Donald Trump for attempting to overturn the election results in the state

A new poll by Public Policy Polling shows the two Senate races in Georgia may well end in run-off elections in January. Georgia is one of seven that require a run-off election if no candidate receives a majority of the vote in a primary election. Not saying a Democrat will necessarily win, but I found this interesting as a possibility.

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Battleground State Polls: Pennsylvania, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Arizona

As always, we take polling with a grain of salt, but these battleground state polls may be of interest: • Pennsylvania – Monmouth University Polling – Joe Biden holds a 12-point lead over Donald Trump among all registered voters in Pennsylvania (54% – 42%) and anywhere from an 8-point to 11-point lead among likely voters. This marks an improvement from Biden’s single-digit lead in a Monmouth poll just over one month ago.

• Florida – University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab – 51 percent of voters indicated they will be voting for Joe Biden compared to 45 percent of voters who said they would vote for President Donald Trump. (3,142 registered likely voters – 39 percent Republican, 38 percent Democrat, and 22 percent signaled no party affiliation). • Nevada and Ohio – New York Times/Siena College Poll – Biden leads 48 percent to 42 percent among likely voters in Nevada and 45 to 44 percent in Ohio, the polls found. Six percent of Nevada voters and 7 percent of Ohioans said they remain undecided.

• Arizona – Data Orbital – Biden leads Trump 47.7 percent to 43.2 percent in Arizona, with 6.5 percent saying they were undecided. The poll included 39 percent Republicans and 33 percent Democrats.

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Biden Holds 8+ Lead In Battleground State Arizona

The New York Times reports former Vice President Joe Biden holds a steady lead over Donald Trump in battleground state Arizona, which hasn’t voted for a Democrat since 1996.

According to a new New York Times-Siena College poll Biden leads Trump 49 percent to 41 percent in the Grand Canyon state with just 6 percent of likely voters saying they were undecided.

The poll, which has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points, was conducted after Trump’s disatrous debate with Biden last Tuesday night but before the president’s coronavirus diagnosis was made public.

Trump won Arizona by 3.5 points in 2016 over Hillary Clinton. Of course, take this all with a grain of salt as the Siena College polls have tended to show Biden slightly more ahead than other polls in Arizona. That said, the New York Times’ average of polls puts Biden leading in the state by 5 points.

(graphic via the New York Times)

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The State Of Battleground State Polls: October 1, 2020

The New York Times updates its average of polls (national and battleground states) every day. The latest data shows Joe Biden leading nationally by 7 points, but national polls can be vague. The important thing to watch are the polls in battleground states. Knowing Donald Trump won the presidency by flipping usually true-blue states Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on that trio. As of today, the NYTimes average of polls in those states puts Biden ahead by 7 points in all three. If Biden flips all three back to his column, he wins. The other state I’m keeping my eye on is Arizona which Trump won in 2016 by 3.5 points. Today’s polling average shows Biden leading by 4 points. Also worth noting that Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly is leading the incumbent Sen. Martha McSally in the Real Clear Politics average of polls by 5.2 points, which also bodes well for Biden. The Times also explores various outcomes based on the state of today’s polling. For instance, if you were to assign electoral votes based on the states where a candidate is currently leading by 3 points or more, Biden would be projected to win with 291 electoral votes. If you translated the polls directly into electoral votes (won’t happen) Biden would win with 359 electoral votes. And IF we assumed the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Biden would still squeak by with 280 electoral votes. It’s all hypothetical until the votes are counted, but it’s interesting to keep up.

(graphic via NY Times)

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Trump’s Favorite Pollster Shows Him Trailing Biden By 8 Points

Donald Trump reportedly took classified top secret documents from the White House when his administration came to an end.

Donald Trump (screen capture)
Hot on the heels of last night’s first presidential debate (if you could call it that after Donald Trump’s deplorable performance), the Donald gets some bad news from his favorite polling outfit. Rasmussen Polls, which tends to lean Republican, released its latest results and it shows a 7 point shift towards former Vice President Joe Biden in just one week. The survey puts Biden at an 8 point lead over Trump 51 percent to 43 percent. This is the first time Biden has cleared the 50 point threshold and its Trump’s worst showing in weeks.

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Fox News State Polls: Biden Ahead +11 In NV, +7 In PA, +5 In Ohio

L-R Former Vice President Joe Biden, Donald Trump
Let me start by pointing out this is a FOX News poll, ok…? From Fox News:

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in the battleground states of Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, according to Fox News statewide likely voter surveys.

In each of the three states, majorities disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, pluralities say coronavirus is “not at all” under control, and Biden is the preferred choice when it comes to handling the virus. Plus, he’s favored over Trump to nominate the next U.S. Supreme Court justice.

There are few undecided voters, and Biden’s support is 50 percent or better in each state. His advantage over Trump is outside the margin of error in Nevada and Pennsylvania, but not Ohio.

Bolding is mine. NEVADA Biden: 52% Trump: 41% OHIO Biden: 50% Trump: 45% PENNSYLVANIA Biden: 51% Trump: 44% That said, this is totally NOT a done deal. We all need to get to the polls and cast our vote – either by mail or in person – by election day.

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Poll: Sen. Susan Collins Trails Democratic Challenger By 12

L-R Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), Sara Gideon (images via campaigns)
Quinnipiac University Polling released a new poll today showing 4-term Republican Senator Susan Collins trailing her Democratic challenger Sara Gideon by a whopping 12 points (54-42). From the latest survey:

• 89% of likely voters who selected a candidate in the Senate matchup say their minds are made up; 10% say they might change their minds before the election

• Collins has a negative favorability rating (43% approve, 51% disapprove) while Gideon garners a positive 49% favorability rating versus 37% unfavorable

• Asked if the candidates care about average people, 60% of voters say that Gideon cares and while say 51% believes that Collins cares

• 53% of voters say that they would want to see the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate

Collins won her last election with nearly 70% of the vote. The same poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 21 points (59% to 38%).

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Poll: Biden Leads In Battleground State Of Florida

A new poll by Monmouth University of battleground state Florida shows former Vice President Joe Biden holds a 3 to 5 point lead over Donald Trump in Florida, depending on a range of likely voter models.

Among all registered voters in Florida, the race for president stands at 50% for Biden and 45% for Trump. Under a likely voter scenario with a somewhat higher level of turnout than in 2016, the race is unchanged at 50% for Biden and 45% for Trump. The margin narrows slightly to 49% Biden and 46% Trump when using a likely voter model with lower turnout.

A notable stat in the new survey shows Trump leading Biden by four points – 50 to 46 – among active military or veteran voters. In 2016, Trump won the military vote by double digits. Among registered voters, 47% say they have a favorable view of Biden and 44% have an unfavorable opinion of him. But Trump’s favorable numbers are underwater with 41% reporting a favorable view of the president and 51% having an unfavorable opinion of him. The Real Clear Politics average of recent Florida polls shows Biden leading by 1.6 points. FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 60% chance of winning in November. The last two presidential elections in Florida were decided by a single percentage point. If Trump were to lose the Sunshine State’s 29 electoral votes, he would have a very difficult path to victory.

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Trump Got How Much Support In New Poll Of Gay Voters?

L-R President Donald Trump, former Vice President Joe Biden
As the U.S. heads into the final weeks of the 2020 presidential campaign, gay dating app Hornet surveyed 10,000 gay men on who they support in the race for the White House. Twelve percent of those polled (1,200) identified as American citizens and 51 percent indicated they plan to vote for former Vice President Joe Biden. Forty-five percent said they plan to vote for Donald Trump. Those numbers align fairly closely with recent national polling. Real Clear Politics average of polls shows the former Vice President currently averaging 49.9 percent while Trump’s support is 42.9 percent. Data-crunching website FiveThirtyEight also reports Biden leads in national polling by 7 or 8 percentage points. Here’s the breakdown of responses to the question “Describe your support of Donald Trump:” • 49% said “I do not support him at all” • 11% said “I disagree with him on most issues” • 9% responded “I disagree with him on some issues and agree with him on others” • 11% said “I agree with him on most issues” • 16% responded “I fully support him”
(graphic via Hornet)
Overall, among the 10,000 respondents worldwide, 66 percent said they support Biden while 34 percent indicated support for Trump. What’s surprising is the American LGBTQ community historically skews to the left politically. For Trump to garner slightly higher support in this poll than current national averages raised some eyebrows. Plus, as has been widely reported, the Trump administration’s track record regarding the LGBTQ community has been hostile on numerous fronts including the transgender military ban, arguing before the U.S. Supreme Court LGBTQ people shouldn’t be protected under federal civil rights law, supporting taxpayer-funded religious adoption agencies that refuse to place children in LGBTQ homes, and opposing passage of The Equality Act. Related: White House Spokeswoman ‘Trump Has Great Record On LGBTQ Issues’ (Oh My Sides…) The Washington Blade reported that national exit polls for the 2016 presidential campaign showed Hillary Clinton garnered a lopsided 78 percent of the queer vote versus Trump’s 14 percent – which is the lowest percentage for a Republican presidential candidate in modern history. In 2012, President Obama won 76 percent of the vote compared to Mitt Romney’s 22 percent support. Of course, many point out Trump’s surprise win in 2016 seemed to defy most polls, so this poll by Hornet could be an outlier. You can check out more from the Hornet survey here.

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Polls: Biden Still Leads In Battleground States Post-Conventions

As I often say here on The Randy Report, national polls aren’t much use to the casual political observer because a survey can be skewed with folks in New York or California (where we know the state will go for a Democrat) or Alabama or Kentucky (where we know those electoral votes will go for Trump). If there are a huge number of double-digit leads in national polls, that suggests a certain mood across the nation. Post-national conventions, here’s the latest round-up of polling averages in battleground states where the presidential election will actually be won or lost.

(graphic via RealClearPolitics)
In addition to the above, Quinnipiac University just released a new poll showing Biden with an 8 point lead in Pennsylvania – a must-win state for the Trumpster.