This is post is to be considered as an encouragement to make sure you get out and vote and not in any way to lead to complacency. We did that four years ago. Don’t do it again. From Pittsburgh’s CBS News affiliate KDKA:
A new Monmouth University poll has former Vice President Joe Biden with a 5-point to 7-point lead over President Donald Trump among likely voters in Pennsylvania.
According to the poll results, Joe Biden leads President Trump by a 51% to 44% margin among likely voters, if vote turnout is high.
In a low turnout scenario, which could happen if a large number of mail-in ballots were to be rejected, Biden leads President Trump by a 50% to 45% margin among likely voters.
The new survey indicates Biden’s support from young voters and people of color is helping to offset Trump’s gains among senior voters and the most competitive counties in the commonwealth. Also – the ongoing pandemic is affecting the election as more voters trust Biden to handle the coronavirus pandemic than Trump.
New Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania: Biden 51% Trump 44% That’s in a high turnout model. In a low turnout scenario it’s: Biden 50% Trump 45%https://t.co/ZmkQ4nzit2
Cameron Hawthorn (photo: Matthew Holler) Some news items you might have missed: • Podcast: Just a reminder to please take a listen to my chat with the oh-so-talented country artist Cameron Hawthorn (above). I’ve been a fan for a long time, so I’m happy to share he’s just as charming as I expected. • Instinct Magazine: With hate crimes on the rise in Italy, LGBTQ folks are marching in the streets. • Netflix: Check out the trailer for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom directed by George C. Wolfe starring a cast headed up by Viola Davis and the late Chadwick Boseman. Coming to Netflix on December 18. “Tensions rise between Ma Rainey (Viola Davis), her ambitious horn player (Chadwick Boseman), and the white management determined to control the legendary ‘Mother of the Blues.’”
• Axios: The Supreme Court denied a request from Pennsylvania’s Republican Party to shorten the deadlines for mail-in ballots in the state. Thanks to the court’s 4-4 deadlock, ballots can be counted for several days after Election Day. • Jewish News: Ahead of the Nov. 3 presidential election, some 75 percent of U.S. Jews would vote for Democratic nominee Joe Biden, while 22 percent would vote to re-elect U.S. President Donald Trump, according to a poll released on Monday by the American Jewish Committee. In 2016, 71 percent of American Jews voted for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, while 24 percent voted for Trump. • Politico: In an episode that has since become legendary within the CIA, Donald Trump was reportedly in the middle of a highly classified briefing on Afghanistan at his New Jersey golf club when he suddenly craved a malted milkshake. “Does anyone want a malt? We have the best malts, you have to try them,” Trump insisted, as he beckoned a waiter into the room where code-word classified intelligence was being discussed. • Fox News: Donald Trump called CNN “dumb bastards” during a campaign stop today for continuing to cover a worldwide pandemic that’s killed over 220,000 Americans and continues to surge across the country.
“They are getting tired of the pandemic, aren’t they? You turn on CNN, that’s all they cover. ‘Covid, Covid, Pandemic, Covid, Covid.’ You know why? They’re trying to talk everybody out of voting. People aren’t buying it, CNN, you dumb bastards.” — Trump pic.twitter.com/QobvMA6Yz0
As always, we take polling with a grain of salt, but these battleground state polls may be of interest: • Pennsylvania – Monmouth University Polling – Joe Biden holds a 12-point lead over Donald Trump among all registered voters in Pennsylvania (54% – 42%) and anywhere from an 8-point to 11-point lead among likely voters. This marks an improvement from Biden’s single-digit lead in a Monmouth poll just over one month ago.
• Florida – University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab – 51 percent of voters indicated they will be voting for Joe Biden compared to 45 percent of voters who said they would vote for President Donald Trump. (3,142 registered likely voters – 39 percent Republican, 38 percent Democrat, and 22 percent signaled no party affiliation). • Nevada and Ohio – New York Times/Siena College Poll – Biden leads 48 percent to 42 percent among likely voters in Nevada and 45 to 44 percent in Ohio, the polls found. Six percent of Nevada voters and 7 percent of Ohioans said they remain undecided.
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Ohio and Nevada, according to new Times/Siena polls. Biden leads in Ohio by 1 point, 45 to 44 percent. Biden leads in Nevada by 6 points, 48 to 42 percent.https://t.co/GRgZezyAMB
• Arizona – Data Orbital – Biden leads Trump 47.7 percent to 43.2 percent in Arizona, with 6.5 percent saying they were undecided. The poll included 39 percent Republicans and 33 percent Democrats.
The New York Times updates its average of polls (national and battleground states) every day. The latest data shows Joe Biden leading nationally by 7 points, but national polls can be vague. The important thing to watch are the polls in battleground states. Knowing Donald Trump won the presidency by flipping usually true-blue states Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on that trio. As of today, the NYTimes average of polls in those states puts Biden ahead by 7 points in all three. If Biden flips all three back to his column, he wins. The other state I’m keeping my eye on is Arizona which Trump won in 2016 by 3.5 points. Today’s polling average shows Biden leading by 4 points. Also worth noting that Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly is leading the incumbent Sen. Martha McSally in the Real Clear Politics average of polls by 5.2 points, which also bodes well for Biden. The Times also explores various outcomes based on the state of today’s polling. For instance, if you were to assign electoral votes based on the states where a candidate is currently leading by 3 points or more, Biden would be projected to win with 291 electoral votes. If you translated the polls directly into electoral votes (won’t happen) Biden would win with 359 electoral votes. And IF we assumed the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Biden would still squeak by with 280 electoral votes. It’s all hypothetical until the votes are counted, but it’s interesting to keep up. (graphic via NY Times)
What interesting timing… After months of Donald Trump railing at mail-in ballots, a handful of ballots were discovered discarded in battleground state Pennsylvania. It’s almost as if a Trump supporter did the deed to give the Donald’s claims of “voter fraud” some credibility just at the right time. From CBS News:
U.S. Attorney David Freed from the Middle District of Pennsylvania announced Thursday that a federal investigation found that nine military general election ballots were discarded in Luzerne County. Seven were marked for President Trump, and the other two are unknown, said Freed, a Republican.
David Pedri, the Luzerne County manager, said in a statement Friday that the nine ballots that sparked a federal probe were “incorrectly discarded” by a temporary independent contractor in the county election office who has since been fired. Pedri also said the Luzerne election director altered the local district attorney’s office about the incident.
Justin Levitt, a Loyola Law School professor and former Justice Department official, told CBS News that, while it’s typical for the Department of Justice to investigate ballots not being counted, releasing preliminary findings prior to an investigation being completed is odd. And to announce the contents of the ballots is very unusual. “There is no—literally no legitimate law enforcement reason to identify the candidate for whom those ballots were cast,” he told CBS News. “It does not matter who they were voting for. The ballots were either properly or improperly handled. To include that information makes this a partisan act rather than a legal one.” Further reports now say the ballots in question weren’t general election ballots but from the Republican primary. The ‘discarded’ ballots were discovered days ago, but Pennsylvania is apparently just now mailing out general election ballots. More from the Washington Post:
Because these ballots were returned in envelopes similar to absentee ballot requests, elections officials opened them. If the ballots weren’t then enclosed in another envelope which shielded the actual vote being cast, they may have been considered “naked ballots,” a term used to describe mail ballots returned without the voter’s intent being protected.
If that’s the case, which again isn’t clear, that meant that elections officials who were opening the envelopes to see what they contained would have had to discard the votes, given a recent ruling by the state’s Supreme Court.
There are several reports saying the ballots found were from the On Friday, ABC News reported that Attorney General Bill Barr personally briefed Trump on the investigation prior to it being announced. It’s important to note that Trump won Luzerne County by 20 points in 2016. So, tossing 7 ballots marked for Trump is hardly efficient “voter fraud,” you know? If someone was honestly trying to commit “voter fraud,” wouldn’t they have actually destroyed the ballots? Burned them or something? I’m not the only one thinking this doesn’t pass the smell test.
The only thing that could have made it more on-the-nose was if the ballots were found at Joe’s childhood home in Scranton.
Anybody else think it’s WAY too convenient that the day AFTER Wray testifies about no ballot fraud, Barr starts investigation into 9 allegedly discarded ballots in Pennsylvania? I smell an inside job to bolster Trump’s unfounded claims.
The DISCARDED BALLOTS were tossed because of the Pennsylvania REPUBLICAN rule about having the secrecy envelope. Bill Barr planted this story as if it's a scandal. The real scandal IS Bill Barr
L-R Former Vice President Joe Biden, Donald Trump Let me start by pointing out this is a FOX News poll, ok…? From Fox News:
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in the battleground states of Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, according to Fox News statewide likely voter surveys.
In each of the three states, majorities disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, pluralities say coronavirus is “not at all” under control, and Biden is the preferred choice when it comes to handling the virus.Plus, he’s favored over Trump to nominate the next U.S. Supreme Court justice.
There are few undecided voters, and Biden’s support is 50 percent or better in each state. His advantage over Trump is outside the margin of error in Nevada and Pennsylvania, but not Ohio.
Bolding is mine. NEVADA Biden: 52% Trump: 41% OHIO Biden: 50% Trump: 45% PENNSYLVANIA Biden: 51% Trump: 44% That said, this is totally NOT a done deal. We all need to get to the polls and cast our vote – either by mail or in person – by election day.
Pennsylvania state Rep. Brian Sims (screen capture) Pennsylvania state Rep. Brian Sims, an openly gay Democrat, went on an epic Facebook Live rant Wednesday night calling out state Republicans for covering up a GOP lawmaker’s positive diagnosis for COVID-19. Sims says House Republicans called for in-person committee meetings to argue that business sectors were safe to reopen even as they knew they had been exposed to the virus. From NBC News:
“Every single day of this crisis this State Government Committee in Pennsylvania has met so that their members could line up one after one after one and explain that it was safe to go back to work,” said Sims during his. “During that time period they were testing positive. They were notifying one another. And they didn’t notify us.”
“I never ever, ever knew that the Republican leadership of this state would put so many of us at risk for partisanship to cover up a lie,” he said during the nearly 12-minute tirade. “And that lie is that we’re all safe from COVID.”
Rep. Andrew Lewis, R-Dauphin, said in a Facebook Live address Wednesday night, hours after he publicly announced he had tested positive, that he informed as few people as possible about contracting the coronavirus because he wanted to protect the privacy of those around him and because he was only in close quarters with a handful of house colleagues.
Sims shares in the video that he donated a kidney in January and so he currently has a compromised immune system making him more susceptible to the coronavirus. Sims is demanding an investigation into how the notification about the diagnosis was handled. He’s also called for Speaker of the House Mike Turzai to resign. Here’s the Facebook Live video. Note – Sims uses some profanity in here.
(image via Facebook) A woman in Pennsylvania entered a Gerrity’s Supermarket on Wednesday afternoon this week and proceeded to intentionally cough on fresh produce, a small section of the bakery, meat case and grocery items, alleges the store’s co-owner Joe Fasula. Writing on the store chain’s Facebook page, Fasula says the woman is known “to be a chronic problem in the community.” “While there is little doubt this woman was doing it as a very twisted prank, we will not take any chances with the health and well-being of our customers,” writes Fasula. “We had no choice but to throw out all of the products she came in contact with. Working closely with the Hanover Township health inspector, we identified every area that she was in, we disposed of the product and thoroughly cleaned and disinfected everything.” Fasula adds, “Although we have not yet quantified the total loss, we estimate the value to be well over $35,000.” “The only silver lining to this travesty is that it gave us the unfortunate opportunity to test our protocols and demonstrate how seriously we take your safety,” said Fasula in closing. “At one point, we had over 15 employees involved in the disposal and clean up.” The Hill is now reporting the woman has been charged for making terrorist threats via her coughing stunt.
Margaret Cirko, 35, allegedly “intentionally contaminated” grocery items by coughing and spitting on them, claiming to be sick while attempting to steal a pack of beer, according to the Hanover Township Police Department.
The incident resulted in the store disposing of $35,000 worth of produce, meat, and other essential items. Cirko was sent to a mental health hospital to be evaluated after her arrest.
Cirko was charged with two felony counts of terroristic threats using a biological agent, one count of criminal mischief, and misdemeanor counts of disorderly conduct and attempted retail theft.
Police have charged Margaret Cirko, 35, with making terroristic threats after they say she claimed to have #coronavirus & intentionally coughed/spit on food in grocery store. Store threw out $35,000+ of product @69News pic.twitter.com/vppZBdEh0S
(image via Jack Sharp/Unsplash) In the aftermath of a landmark grand jury report on sexual abuse by Catholic clergy, Pennsylvania’s Roman Catholic dioceses have paid out almost $84 million to 564 victims of sexual abuse. The Associated Press reports seven of the Keystone state’s eight dioceses organized victim compensation funds after the release of the August 2018 grand jury report showed hundreds of priests had molested over 1,000 children since the 1940s. One diocese, in Altoona-Johnstown, has no compensation fund saying it lacks the funds after paying out $15.7 million in an earlier clergy abuse scandal. In addition to the abuse, the grand jury report also indicates church leaders had systematically worked to cover up the abuse. According to the AP, the average payout to victims across the seven dioceses has been slightly more than $148,000. But that’s well below what an adult victim of childhood abuse would expect to see had they been able to sue in court. Claims administrator Camille Biros, who was hired to handle the claims for the Archdiocese of Philadelphia as well as Allentown, Erie, Pittsburgh and Scranton dioceses, told the AP, “These are all time-barred claims, so it’s not going to be the kind of numbers one sees in a courtroom.” Pennsylvania state law limits such lawsuits to those victims under 30 years of age. State lawmakers had announced plans to amend such laws but there’s no guarantee any changes will materialize. Biros says compensation payouts are based on “the nature of the abuse, how long it went on, the age of the child, (and) the effect of the abuse.” But some claims are rejected due to lack of evidence or not meeting eligibility criteria. One man who allowed his name to be used in the reporting is David Zernhelt, who tells the AP he was offered $400,000 by the diocese of Allentown and accepted it. Zernhelt says he wasn’t willing to trust lawmakers to pass a legislative fix to the state laws any time soon. “It doesn’t make me rich,” said the 45-year-old of Easton. “It creates a positive starting point for me. I can try to make my life a little bit better and put this behind me.” Zernhelt told the administrators of the Allentown fund that Rev. Thomas Kerestus sexually assaulted him two to four times a week for five years. The abuse began when Zernhelt was only 13-years-old. Zernhelt’s family went to the church about the abuse but says the diocese “swept it under the rug.” Kerestus, who was named in the grand jury report, died in 2014. Attorney Richard Serbin has been critical of the compensation funds because the process allows the church to avoid courtroom lawsuits which could become a “public airing of its dirty laundry.”
Although Serbin has worked for years on behalf of past church victims, he admits some of his clients have taken the payouts for various reasons.
“Some did it because they want to try to move forward and are looking to heal, and they feel this will be of assistance, and for those clients, I do think it’s good, and I recommend they take it,” he told the AP. Others, he said, “are in desperate financial situations, and they needed the money.”
Alisyn Camerota, from CNN’s New Day, chatted with a panel of Pennsylvania voters from swing districts about how Donald Trump is handling the presidency and got some rather stunning responses. Some called Trump’s time in the Oval Office “embarrassing” while others declared he is “fantabulous!” A woman named Crystal, who is still clearly pro-Trump, was asked: “Crystal, is there anything he could do that would make you not vote for him?” Crystal replied “No.” Bringing up the now infamous hypothetical scenario stated by Trump during the 2016 election, Camerota queried, “If he shot someone on 5th avenue, would you vote for him?” Crystal responded asking with a skeptical tone, “Yeah, why did he shoot him?” The Trump voters were also asked about whether pressuring foreign countries to investigate political opponents was appropriate and the ongoing impeachment inquiry.
Alisyn Camerota: "If [President Trump] shot someone on Fifth Avenue, would you vote for him?" Voter: "Why did he shoot him?"Six swing voters from two swing counties in Pennsylvania discuss the impeachment inquiry and Trump's performance in office so far.https://t.co/19o9KeoGY7pic.twitter.com/WI1UhB112X
This is post is to be considered as an encouragement to make sure you get out and vote and not in any way to lead to complacency. We did that four years ago. Don’t do it again. From Pittsburgh’s CBS News affiliate KDKA: 
