Tag: Nevada

While the recent polls seem to lean in Donald Trump’s direction, Nevada political expert Jon Ralston sees a rosier future for Hillary Clinton as he sums up the early voting results and how the numbers stack up:

On the presidential (and maybe applies to the U.S. Senate, too), some math still holds:

• Both candidates get 90 percent of base and split indies: Clinton by 4, 29,000 votes

• Both candidates get 90 percent of base, Trump wins indies by 10: Clinton by 2, 17,000 votes

• Both candidates get 90 percent of base, Trump wins indies by 20: Clinton by 3,000 votes

Note: Trump is not going to get 90 percent of the GOP base, and with all of those votes banked even before the Comey letter, it’s almost impossible for him to win indies by 20. (Romney won indies by 7.) You see his challenge.

If Clinton holds her base here (data I have seen shows she is, and minority turnout is going up) and turnout patterns don’t dramatically shift in the last two days of early voting, she can’t lose Nevada. Solid lean Clinton right now.

More than 617,000 have voted in Nevada. That’s 42.2 percent. More than half the vote is in unless Election Day turnout is well above the norm.

The Democrats have a 34,500 voter statewide lead (probably under 34,000 after the rurals are posted). That’s 42-37, or about a point under the registration lead. The GOP turnout edge is 1.2 points.

Bolding is mine.

As of this Halloween morning, registered Democratic voters showing up at the polls lead registered Republicans by 34,186, according to the Nevada Secretary of State website.

Washoe County, considered a bellwether, shows Dems with 2,500 lead, which is almost twice what it was in 2012.

From Nevada political expert Jon Ralston:

Dems are up 15 points in Clark (it was 16 in 2012), which is a point above registration, and that firewall is going to get to 60,000-plus, unless something strange happens. I repeat: Trump appears to have no path here, but the Senate race is not quite over yet.

Statewide turnout is now 31 percent of all voters — Democrats are at 34.6 percent, Republicans at 33.9 percent and others at 23 percent. The Republicans actually have a slight turnout lead in Clark — 34.9 percent to 34.3 percent, showing why that 142,000 Democratic registration lead matters. The Democratic turnout edge in Washoe is nearly 4 points (37-33).

Nevada Democrats continue to lead by a healthy margin, over 30K,  at the polls after the first week of early voting.

Nevada early voting totals to date through Friday, October 28, 2016, via the Nevada Secretary of State website:

In-person early voting – Democrats – 150,014
In-person early voting – Republicans – 119,368 (-30,646)
In-person early voting – Other – 65,916

Absent / Mail-in ballots – Democrats – 16,840
Absent / Mail-in ballots – Republicans – 18,978 (+2,138)
Absent / Mail0in ballots – Other – 8,598

Total Democrats – 166,854
Total Republicans – 138,346 (-28,508)
Total Other – 74,514

After four days of early voting in Nevada, the Secretary of State website shows Democrats opening a wide lead in voting.

When you combine in-person voting with returned mail-in ballots, the Democrats come in with 104,305 statewide.

The Republicans are down by 24,585 ballots with 79,720 registered GOPers getting their votes in so far.

After three days of early voting in Nevada, the Dems continue to outpace Republicans at the polls.

The Nevada Secretary of State’s website shows 69,246 Democrats have voted in person so far (48.93%) versus 45,990 Republicans (32.5%).

The mail-in ballots total 29,309 so far with Republicans casting 12,445 versus the Dems’ 11,100.

Of course, the lion’s share of votes come from Clark County where almost 75% of Nevadans live, and  a big majority are Democrats.

It’s notable that this marked the third straight day of 30,000+ voters in Clark County. Yesterday’s total in Clark County was 34,603. For comparison, in 2012 the third day total was 30,598. 

All told that’s 80,346 ballots from the Dems and 58,435 for the Republicans. A difference of almost 22,000.

As noted earlier, we don’t know how those folks voted, but history shows the vast majority of voters cast their ballot for their registered party.

Donald Trump and his followers can point to turn-out for his rallies, but the true “enthusiasm” shows up at the ballot box.  Just saying…

The first weekend of early voting ended in Nevada as a blowout for the Democrats.

Of the 57,331 votes cast this weekend, 30,062 ballots (52.44%) were cast by Dems while only 17,121 votes (29.86%) by Republicans.

That’s almost a 13,000 vote lead for Democrats. While we don’t know exactly who folks voted for, most registered voters do vote their party. So, take these numbers as you may.