The latest poll in Nevada’s all-important U.S. Senate race, conducted by JMC Analytics and Polling this week, show’s Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto with a five point lead over Republican Rep. Joe Heck.
The race will decide who fills the U.S. Senate seat left open after longtime Democratic Senator Harry Reid retires.
The results show Cortez Masto getting 40% support of respondents, while Heck received 35%.
Sixteen percent of those surveyed identified as “Undecided.”
Of those “Undecideds,” 41% say they lean in Cortez Masto’s direction, 36% say Heck.
According to the latest polling from Public Opinion Strategies, Democrat Hillary Clinton is leading Republican Donald Trump in Nevada by a 6 point margin (45%-39%).
In the U.S. Senate race to replace retiring Democratic Senator Harry Reid, GOP Congressman Joe Heck leads Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto 47%-44%.
Nevada’s top political reporter, Jon Ralston, shared with the world tonight the journey he and his transgender son, Jake, have taken as a family.
I should preface this by pointing out that Jon Ralston is a tough political reporter. There’s no holds barred when it comes to his reporting. But behind every tough persona lies a human heart. Ralston is no different.
I’d love to just copy and paste Jon’s full post, but I think it’s fair you head over to Ralston Reports to read his beautifully written essay on what is obviously a powerfully personal trek to “here.”
Here is just a few excerpts:
When Maddy Ralston came into this world almost 21 years ago, it was love at first sight.
I cradled her in my arms, my adopted miracle, and couldn’t stop crying. She was the most beautiful thing I had ever seen.
As she grew up, Maddy eschewed the traditional girly girl stuff. “If you get me a doll for Christmas, I’ll cut its head off,” she once admonished me.
She refused to wear the skirts in the school uniform catalogue, preferring the khaki pants. She became a full-fledged tomboy before high school. She was a stunning, blonde-blue-eyed kid, but she didn’t care. She would rather go sit for hours and fish at Sunset Park than go to the mall with other girls. She told me she wanted to be a boy.
[snip]
Maddy never really talked about what the truth was until junior year. But somehow she had known since she was five, when she eschewed dolls and dresses.
I don’t think I even listened very well when Maddy told me a few years ago she was really a male inside, that she was transgender. Sure, you are, I thought. It’s just a phase, I was certain.
After all, the kid has been through a lot. Her mother had died. She had to switch schools. She had no idea who she was.
But the truth was I had no idea. Or I was in denial.
Slowly but surely, I have come to not just accept it but to embrace it. I have learned a lot about transgender issues through my job. I have read a bit.
[snip]
I admit I sometimes still have a hard time with it all. I look around the house, see the pictures of me with my little girl and my eyes fill with tears. But those memories are forever, and Maddy told me not to take them down, that she cherishes those, too.
Last year, Maddy began talking about transitioning, about having surgery. And about six months ago, Maddy began taking testosterone to begin the process of becoming who she really is.
This week, Maddy went to court, bravely told a judge why she wanted to be a male and wanted her birth certificate changed, too. After the hearing, when it was finally real, when he called me, I don’t think I have ever heard my kid sound so happy. And he wanted the story told.
When I get home later this week, I will see someone officially named Jake Ralston for the first time. And one thing I know for certain: It will be love at first sight.
I want to be clear about my intentions on posting this. Jon Ralston has dealt with this family issue for a long time now. And, in sharing his son’s story, he’s helping countless families who find themselves in a similar circumstance.
I personally have friends who have found themselves unexpectedly learning about “life as transgender” from their children. This is real.
I celebrate Jon and Jake’s openness to sharing their story.
I congratulate Jake on his living life as the person he knows he is.
And send huge kudos to Jon for being the father any son would love to have.
UPDATE: The Washington Post’s Travis Andrews interviewed both Jon and Jake Ralston after Jon’s post went viral. Read more about Jake’s journey here.
Voters line up to check in to Caucus in NW Las Vegas
For those who have never caucused before, whether you live in a state that holds a primary or you’ve just never taken part in your state’s caucus, I thought I’d share some of my experience at yesterday’s Nevada caucus.
Hubby Michael and I got to our caucus location a bit early and I’m glad we did. The lines got very long very quickly. Most of the times listed said arrive at 11am and the actual caucus activity would begin at 11:30am. Doors closed at Noon, so if you weren’t in line by then, you didn’t get to take part.
There were hundreds at our location, but all those folks weren’t in one room. There were several rooms used at our local high school to break up the voters by precinct. My precinct was told to assemble in the school cafeteria along with two other precincts. My precinct had 87 attendees; the two neighboring precincts had 3 voters and 1 voter, respectively.
Interesting note: the lone voter for his precinct got to choose on his own (100% of his precinct) who their one delegate would go to all by himself. (He went with Hillary). The three folks from the other precinct also awarded a single delegate; they went unanimously for Hillary.
My precinct was much larger, so we took a while.
Due to some logistical issues getting voters checked in at the outset, we didn’t get started until about 12:30pm. And it was a little rocky.
Apparently, our precinct chairperson wasn’t present so the deputy chairperson was charged with running our precinct. She was also helping to register folks out in the lobby, so we had to hang a bit waiting for her.
The crowd were all very pleasant folks, and very diverse. Lots of colors and flavors of people in attendance, exactly what you’d expect to see at a Democratic gathering. Hubby Michael, being the social superstar he is found new friends and chatted a lot. I walked around a bit trying to get a broader understanding of the process.
There was only one moment where things got a bit tense. At one point someone (I still don’t know who it was) told us to separate ourselves into three groups – Hillary supporters, Bernie supporters and undecideds. A Bernie supporter (he was wearing a T-shirt) told the #FeelTheBern crowd to move to one corner and the Hillary folks to move to another.
As I started to help senior citizens move to a different part of the room, another Bernie Sanders supporter, who we later learned was a designated “Observer,” got way up in my face with a very crunchy tone of voice telling me, “This isn’t how it’s done! This isn’t the official procedure!!!” I took a step back as his body language and voice were uber-adversarial. I was just trying to help some older folks move as we were told. Suddenly I got a whole face full of “Bern.” I asked the guy to chill, and that we were just doing what we were told. He kind of stormed off.
Eventually, our precinct was called to order and all proceeded nicely. Our deputy chairperson literally read each step from the official documents to make sure all was done in accordance with the rules.
During that time, though, Mr. “BernieBro” paced back and forth, and leaned on tables as if he was scrutinizing hanging chads in Florida in 2000. Several people near me mentioned that he made them nervous.
In any case, the rules were read; the statements from candidates were read; we were all counted to get a total of attendees (87 total); and we separated into our preference groups and were counted (61 for Hillary, 23 for Bernie, and 3 undecideds).
After a 15 minute period, the undecideds were instructed that, according to the rules, they could either stay “Uncommitted” or realign with the Bernie or Hillary folks. Each of the two camps sent one person to represent their candidate to convince or answer questions to see if the undecideds were sway-able. I was picked to speak for Hillary 🙂
A very nice senior lady from the Bernie camp and I were given a few minutes to answer questions. The questions we got were: What is your candidate’s main strength that makes them the right candidate? What specific foreign policy accomplishment can you point to that shows expertise for your candidate?
For full disclosure: I began by telling the “undecideds” and the Bernie supporter that I would not be disparaging Bernie in any way with my comments. My answers centered around Hillary’s breadth of experience on the world stage for over 25+ years: from law school, to Children’s Defense Fund, to First Lady, to starting the Children’s Health Insurance Program, to working across the aisle as U.S. Senator from New York state, to Secretary of State. Regarding a specific foreign policy achievement I pointed to the negotiated cease fire between Israel and Hamas, plus the fact that she’s met and has relationships with most heads of state around the world.
The Bernie supporter (who was very nice) said that Bernie is “very ethical” and that he’s not rich so he’s more like ‘regular people,” and that was a driving force in her support. When it came to a specific foreign policy moment, she wasn’t quite prepared for that, but said he would be sure to make sure we don’t go to war unnecessarily.
A monitor gave us a signal when he felt “time was up.” Before we walked away, I took one second to ask everyone there that, whoever the Democratic nominee is come the fall, we need to all come together and support that candidate. I don’t know why I felt the need to say that, but, I did.
When time was up, one “undecided” realigned with Hillary supporters, and two remained “Uncommitted.”
The final tally ended up 62 votes for Hillary (7 delegates), 23 for Bernie (2 delegates) and 2 Uncommitted.
Oh – and I was elected to be a delegate to our County convention. That should be interesting 🙂
We ended up being there until about 1:45pm, so it took about a little over an hour once we actually got going. While it certainly took more time and was more tedious than voting in a primary, it was not unpleasant (other than Mr. “BernieBro”) and you got to be a part of democracy in action.
In the end, Hillary Clinton won the Nevada state caucuses 53%-47%.
Check out some pics I took along the way.
And make sure you participate in your own local primary/caucus!
Michael (in blue polo shirt) being social before the Caucus gets underway
Things get started as our deputy chairperson (in black & white stripes on the right) reads the rules
“Mr. BernieBro” – who got in my face for helping seniors move around the room
“End of the caucus” celebratory glass of wine! Democracy!
College Republicans at the University of Nevada Reno have circulated a letter suggesting members caucus both at the Democratic Caucus Saturday and Tuesday’s Republican Caucus.
Here’s the game: Since the Republicans closed their registration rolls on Feb. 13, that’s the file that will be used on Feb. 23. Therefore, a Republican could show up at a Democratic caucus site on Saturday, switch to the Democratic Party, vote and then still participate on Tuesday because the party switch would not show up on the GOP caucus rolls.
This from the party that constantly screams “Voter Fraud!” all the time. It’s comical.
The head of the Nevada Democratic Party is not having it.
“After reviewing Nevada law, we believe that registering under false pretenses in order to participate in the Democratic caucuses for purposes of manipulating the presidential nominating process is a felony,” Nevada Democratic Chairwoman Roberta Lange said in a statement.
“The Nevada State Democratic Party will work with law enforcement to prosecute anyone who falsely registers as a Democrat to caucus tomorrow and subsequently participates in the Republican caucuses on Tuesday.”
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) also lashed out at the “scheme,” calling the tactics “disgraceful.”
“These Republican plans to interfere with the integrity of Nevada’s Democratic caucuses are shameful and immoral,” Reid said in a statement. “Rather than letting voters decide and allowing our democratic system to work, Republicans are resorting to trickery and gimmicks in an attempt to subvert the will of the people. The Republican Party has long decried voter fraud, but with this latest scheme they are now encouraging it.”
“The American people deserve a fair voting process, and I will do everything in my power to ensure that these disgraceful Republican tactics do not interfere with the voice of Nevada voters.”
According to a new CNN/ORC poll, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders are in a virtual tie in Nevada only days before the state’s caucuses this Saturday.
Clinton received 48% of likely Democratic caucusgoers while Sanders clocked in at 47%.
It’s worth noting, however, that while the CNN/ORC Nevada Poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,006 adult residents of the state, the results among the 282 likely Democratic primary voters show a plus or minus 6 percentage points in terms of margin of error.
Also, the polling shows no breakdown of ethnicity other than Clinton leading Sanders with whites 46%-44%. If that’s true, and the trend of Clinton doing better with Latinos and African-Americans, you would think she would be further ahead.
The turnout in 2008 was only 8% for the state caucuses, which in the long run, hardly represents an entire state. Sad.
Jon Ralston, noted political reporter in Nevada, tweeted earlier today that without knowing how minorities factor into the polling it’s hard to get a good read of what’s going on in the Silver State.
On the Republican side, it looks to be a blowout for Donald Trump who gets 45% of likely Republican caucusgoers. Sen. Marco Rubio comes in 2nd at 19% and Sen. Ted Cruz a close third with 17%.
After a dearth of polling in Nevada, a new poll taken of Democratic Nevada caucus-goers shows Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in a tight race – 45%-45% – ahead of the February 20th caucuses.
However, it should be noted the survey was paid for by the very conservative Free Beacon; and some of the questions were clearly framed as “anti-Hillary” in nature, such a:
• Recently several news organizations have reported that the FBI could indict Hillary Clinton over her handling of her email server. How concerned are you that she could actually face such an indictment?
• Hillary Clinton supported the Wall Street bailout and big banks have given her over $1.6 million dollars in campaign contributions and speaking fees. Does this make you more or less likely to support her?
You see where this is going, right? So, I’d take the results with a grain of salt.
The poll was conducted by TargetPoint of 1,236 potential Nevada caucusgoers from Feb. 8-10, with a margin of error just under 3 percent.
MSNBC and Telemundo will co-host a town hall with Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in Las Vegas on Feb. 18, two days before Nevada Democrats hold presidential caucuses, I’ve confirmed.
The state party will partner with the networks on the event that is sure to draw distinctions on key Nevada issues and those important to Latinos.
Hispanic turnout was 14 percent in the 2008 Nevada caucuses, according to exit polls.
