Merrill Lynch: Fewer Trump Twitter Rants Means Better Economy For US

According to cable business network CNBC, data indicates Donald Trump would help his reelection chances by pulling back on the Twitter rants. Bank of America Merrill Lynch issued a statement on Tuesday based on analyzing Trump’s Twitter activity since 2016. Savita Subramanian, the brokerage’s chief equity strategist, wrote that “days with more than 35 tweets (90 percentile) by Trump have seen negative returns (-9bp), whereas days with less than 5 tweets (10 percentile) have seen positive returns (+5bp) — statistically significant.” A basis point is 0.01 percent. “Trade talk, political campaigning, and tweets have contributed to volatility, from China to Fed policy to tax policy,” Subramanian added. “And new tariffs announced in August indicate downside risk to our 2019/20 EPS growth forecasts of +2%/+7%, where indirect impacts from hits to corporate or consumer confidence could be significant.” Many inside Team Trump have said off the record that Trump is well aware his main calling card for reelection has been the relative strength of the stock market and low unemployment. It seems less Twitter storms = better economy.

Trump Approval Rating Has Plunged In Battleground States

  The latest polling by Morning Consult shows Donald Trump has seen his net approval rating decline in every key battleground state since taking office in January 2017. From Axios:

These are the states that Republicans and Democrats are vying for in 2020, and where, as of now, the campaigns think the presidential election will be decided, according to conversations with several Trump and Democratic campaign staffers.

In addition to the key purple states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — that both sides recognize as targets, the Trump campaign has its sights set on Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico, all states Trump lost in 2016, several campaign officials said.

The official added that the campaign, which is planning to beef up its communications and rapid response team with additional hires before the end of the year, will soon be flooding these states with stories that don’t get a lot of attention at the national level — such as Trump’s work on opioids and the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal.

Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping they can pick up Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Texas and Georgia, per talks with campaign aides and Democratic strategists.

(image public domain via Flickr/White House)

Joe Walsh Announces Challenge To Trump For GOP Nomination

Calling Mr. Trump ‘completely unfit,’ former Congressman Joe Walsh, a conservative radio host, says he will launch a television-centric strategy to try to rattle a media-obsessed president. Walsh announced his candidacy during an interview with George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s “This Week.” https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1165613529455562752 https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1165618693386244097 From the New York Times:

“We’ve got a guy in the White House who is unfit, completely unfit, to be president and it stuns me that nobody stepped up,” Mr. Walsh said in announcing his candidacy, claiming that “everyone” in the Republican Party believes Mr. Trump is not fit for the job.

Mr. Walsh’s decision to announce his candidacy on television, aides said, is a preview of a television-centric strategy designed to rattle a television-focused president with a rare challenge from within the party.

Despite Mr. Walsh’s claim that many Republicans share his belief that Mr. Trump is unfit to serve, most polls show the president’s approval rating among Republican voters is consistently in the high 80s.

Mr. Walsh stands virtually no chance of wresting the Republican presidential nomination away from Mr. Trump. But he framed his long shot primary challenge as a moral imperative to offer an alternative to Mr. Trump, and said that he is jumping in because “somebody needs to step up.”

Trump Endorsement Elicits Exodus From Log Cabin Republicans

In the wake of the Log Cabin Republicans’ endorsement of Donald Trump for reelection, several prominent members of the organization have resigned, and they are not going quietly. The endorsement came in the form of an op-ed penned by LCR chair Robert Kabel and vice-chair Jill Homan for the Washington Post last Thursday. The duo cited Trump’s promise to end the HIV/AIDS epidemic in ten years as well as an announced plan to end the criminalization of homosexuality around the world. Of course, they also touted his much-ballyhooed tax cuts and other economic initiatives like ‘opportunity zones’ they say have helped create new LGBTQ-owned businesses. But the Washington Post reports that former board member Jennifer Horn sent a letter to Kabel and Homan on Monday announcing her resignation. In the missive, she argued that Trump’s “regular verbal assaults against women, immigrants, elected members of Congress, party members who do not agree with him on policy or principle and his willingness to stoke racial anger and unrest in order to advance his own political ambitions all subvert the founding principles of our great nation.” She also made note of the Trump administration’s “efforts to roll back civil rights protections” through the Justice Department. Further demonstrating her opposition to Trump, Horn recently served as campaign manager for Bill Weld, the former governor of Massachusetts, who has announced he will challenge Trump in the Republican primaries. Additionally, Robert Turner, a former president of the DC chapter of Log Cabin Republicans, has also left the group. In a social media post, Turner called the endorsement “a step too far,” adding that it left him “sad.” Jordan Evans, the only openly transgender elected official in the GOP, wrote her own op-ed for The Advocate where she called out the Trump administration for “hollow words, fairweather friends and a seemingly endless number of cuts for us to endure.” Evans said in granting the endorsement, Log Cabin Republicans “turn a blinder to the plights and fears of our colleagues in the queer movement and embrace an administration that has consistently antagonized the LGBTQ+ community through an endless array of rollbacks and rule changes.” Evans listed numerous agencies where attacks on the LGBTQ community have occurred in the past two and a half years, including the Department of Defense, HUD, Health and Human Services, Education and more. Since taking office, Donald Trump and his administration have been disastrous for the LGBTQ community from initiating a ban on transgender military service members to allowing healthcare professionals to refuse to treat LGBTQ people and more. Trump was asked about his record on LGBTQ issues today, specifically in regard to his administration’s decision to file a brief with the U.S. Supreme Court that says transgender Americans could be fired from their jobs simply because of their gender identity. The Donald immediately pointed to the Log Cabin endorsement (although he struggled to remember the group’s name) saying he’s “done very well with that community.” GLAAD took note of the comment and clapped back via Twitter pointing to 123 times LGBTQ people have been targeted since he took office. https://twitter.com/glaad/status/1163901936854339586 (sources: Washington Post,HRC, Advocate)

Biden Ad: “Battered By An Erratic, Vicious, Bullying President…”

(screen capture)
The Hill reports the Biden campaign has made its first big media buy targeting Iowa markets.

In the spot, a narrator intones the urgency of the 2020 presidential election. “We know in our bones this election is different. We have to beat Donald Trump, and all the polls agree — Joe Biden is the strongest Democrat to do the job.” Later in the ad, the voiceover says, “He’ll restore the soul of a nation that’s been battered by an erratic, vicious, bullying president.” The Donald will love that.

In related news, a new CNN/SSRS poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden has returned to a double-digit lead over his Democratic competitors garnering 29% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters. That represents an increase of 7 points since the last CNN poll in June. CNN notes that “no other candidate has made meaningful gains over that time.” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) came in second with 15% support, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) was a statistical tie at 14%. Those numbers are basically unchanged from June. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) fell 12 points since June to 5% support. Mayor Pete Buttigieg scored 5% as well.

(via CNN)

Warren Surges Past Sanders In Latest Fox News Poll

(Images via Fox News)

The results of the latest Fox News poll shows Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has surged to the number two spot behind former Vice President Joe Biden.

The new poll shows Biden still leads the pack of Democratic hopefuls with the support of 31 percent of Democratic primary voters.

Warren comes in at 20 percent, and Sanders at 10 percent.

California Sen. Kamala Harris garnered 8 percent.

All of the other candidates received 3 percent or less.

More from Fox News:

Warren’s gains come at Sanders’ expense, as she’s now the favorite among primary voters under age 45 as well as those who identify as “very” liberal. Since last month, Warren is up 12 points among the under 45 crowd, while Sanders lost 10. And her support increased 18 points among very liberal voters, as backing for Sanders dropped 16.

Biden leads Warren among both men (+11 points) and women (+11), and has a 22-point advantage among voters over age 45. Plus, among non-whites, Biden is up by 17 points over Sanders and by 19 over Warren.

By a wide 60-36 percent margin, Democratic primary voters prefer a nominee who will “restore the country and get American politics back to normalcy” over one who will “fundamentally change” how Washington works.

Overall, the survey indicates Biden would beat Trump by the widest margin if the election were held today, 50% – 38%.

Sanders would win by 9 points over Trump, while Warren would take the race by 7 points.

And the election is 14 months away…

Hickenlooper Drops Out Of White House Race, Considering Run For U.S. Senate

John Hickenlooper (screen capture)

The New York Times reports former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper announced on Thursday that he is ending his presidential campaign.

A moderate political voice in the Democratic party, his policies and approach never took off in a field of candidates vying to be the “most progressive.”

Mr. Hickenlooper has been seriously considering a run for the Republican-held Senate seat in Colorado that is up for election in 2020 — a key pickup target in the Democrats’ strategy to try to retake control of the Senate.

“Today, I’m ending my campaign for president,” he said in a videotaped statement. “But I will never stop believing that America can only move forward when we work together.”

“I’ve heard from so many Coloradans who want me to run for the United States Senate,” he added. “They remind me how much is at stake for our country. And our state. I intend to give that some serious thought.”

Truth be told, I think he would be a formidable senatorial candidate for Colorado. And, with Democrats needing to pick up four Senate seats, he would be far more useful running for Republican Sen. Cory Gardner, who is up for reelection in 2020.

I think the same can be said for former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke. The ‘magic’ from the 2018 election cycle has failed to materialize for him in his presidential run.

But support for O’Rourke in his home state is strong. And GOP incumbent John Cornyn would face a tough challenge with O’Rourke as his opponent.

In my humble opinion…

Poll: Warren Takes 11 Point Lead In Iowa

Sen. Elizabeth Warren

The latest Iowa Starting Line-Change Research poll shows Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has opened up an 11 point lead in the Iowa Caucus.

Warren scored 28% support from likely Iowa Caucus-goers in the poll.

Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) were tied for second with 17 percent each.

Mayor Pete Buttigieg came in fourth at 13 percent and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) has the backing of 8 percent.

Both Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) garnered 3% of caucus-goers’ support.

The remaining candidates received 2 percent or less.

(image via Starting Line/Change Research)

That’s quite a change from the last Starting Line-Change Research poll from May when Warren was in the middle of the pack in 4th place.

Here’s where things stood then, along with their movement since:

May Poll (change to August):
Joe Biden: 24% (-7)
Bernie Sanders: 24% (-7)
Pete Buttigieg: 14% (-1)
Elizabeth Warren: 12% (+16)
Kamala Harris: 10% (-2)
Beto O’Rourke: 5% (-2)

SurveyUSA Poll: Both Biden & Sanders Would Beat Trump By 8 Points

Donald Trump

The results of a new poll of head-to-head matchups between Donald Trump and possible Democratic opponents by SurveyUSA shows two front-runners would beat Trump by 8 points.

The poll of 5,459 registered voters nationwide showed:

• Former Vice President Biden 50%, President Trump 42%

• Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 50%, Trump 42%

• Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren 46%, Trump 44% — too close to call

•  California Senator Kamala Harris 45%, Trump 44% — too close to call

• Trump 44%, South Bend IN Mayor Pete Buttigieg 42% — too close to call

The polling company says that the survey “approximates the outcome of the USA popular vote but not necessarily the outcome of the Electoral College.”

SurveyUSA also notes that Trump doesn’t break 44% against any Democratic opponent.

Joe Biden: “This President Has Fanned The Flames Of White Supremacy”

Former Vice President Joe Biden forcefully denounced Donald Trump's ducking of any responsibility regarding the spate of mass shootings in the U.S.

Former Vice President Joe Biden forcefully denounced Donald Trump’s ducking of any responsibility regarding the spate of mass shootings in the U.S.

From Jonathan Capehart of the Washington Post:

In a fiery and blunt speech slamming the tenor, tone and words of President Trump as the nation reels from white nationalist domestic terrorism, former vice president Joe Biden reminded all of us of what a presidential president sounds like.

His words were stirring. His delivery was passionate. And they were befitting a man who kicked off his campaign with a video decrying Trump’s shameful response to Charlottesville.

From Biden’s speech:

How far is it from Trump’s saying this “is an invasion” to the shooter in El Paso declaring, quote, “this attack is in response to the Hispanic invasion of Texas”? How far apart are those comments?

How far is it from white supremacists and Neo-Nazis in Charlottesville — Trump’s “very fine people” — chanting “You will [not] replace us” – to the shooter at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh saying, “we’re committing genocide” — Jews are committing genocide — on his people. I don’t think it’s that far at all.

It’s both clear language and in code, this president has fanned the flames of white supremacy in this nation.