According to cable business network CNBC, data indicates Donald Trump would help his reelection chances by pulling back on the Twitter rants.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch issued a statement on Tuesday based on analyzing Trump’s Twitter activity since 2016.
Savita Subramanian, the brokerage’s chief equity strategist, wrote that “days with more than 35 tweets (90 percentile) by Trump have seen negative returns (-9bp), whereas days with less than 5 tweets (10 percentile) have seen positive returns (+5bp) — statistically significant.”
A basis point is 0.01 percent.
“Trade talk, political campaigning, and tweets have contributed to volatility, from China to Fed policy to tax policy,” Subramanian added. “And new tariffs announced in August indicate downside risk to our 2019/20 EPS growth forecasts of +2%/+7%, where indirect impacts from hits to corporate or consumer confidence could be significant.”
Many inside Team Trump have said off the record that Trump is well aware his main calling card for reelection has been the relative strength of the stock market and low unemployment.
It seems less Twitter storms = better economy.