According to the new ABC News/Washington Post track poll – which a week ago had Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by one point – Clinton has rebounded with a 4 point lead.
You’ll notice in the graphic above that Clinton seems steady at 47% over the past three days while Trump is clearly trending down over the same time period.
Forty-seven percent of likely voters support Clinton with 43 percent for Trump in the latest four-night results. Whether it holds is an open question: Monday night’s results, the best for Clinton in the series, will roll out tomorrow.
While the shifts have been within the survey’s margin of sampling error, the contest has gone from +1 Trump, 45-46 percent, Oct. 30, to +4 Clinton today. Trump’s support now is numerically its lowest since Oct. 25.
Other shifts, all slight, are in sync. With the controversial FBI email announcement fading back a bit, Clinton has regrouped on strong enthusiasm — up 6 points in just two days, and now essentially even with Trump for the first time since before the Comey letter.
Moody’s Analytics, which has correctly predicted the outcome of every presidential race since 1980, says Democrat Hillary Clinton will come out on top come election day.
Clinton is expected to get 332 electoral votes, while Trump is predicted to get just 206, according to the Moody’s Analytics model, which is based on three economic and three political factors.
Overall, the U.S. is growing and that favors Clinton. Most Americans can feel their pocketbooks getting better. Moody’s predicts key swing states — Florida, Ohio, Colorado and Pennsylvania — all going blue this year.
But here’s what really tips the model heavily toward Clinton: Cheap gas and President Obama’s high approval rating.
“Even those who don’t have a car typically pass a gas station and see prices dropping or falling of a daily basis,” writes Dan White, a senior economist at Moody’s, who worked on the model for the 2016 election.
Gas prices are down, while American incomes and home prices have been rising. At the end of the day, that means a lot of people are better off than they were a few years ago.
The other deciding factor this year is President Obama. Many see Clinton as an extension of President Obama’s policies. Right now, that’s a good thing. His approval rating has surged this year to 55%.
“Historically, no incumbent president since Ronald Reagan in 1988 has had a surge anywhere close to [Obama’s] magnitude in their eighth year in office,” notes White.
The economy and Obama’s rising popularity are likely to make the difference to those coveted few undecided voters, according to the Moody’s model.
For comparison, here’s how other prognosticators see the race for the White House:
Fox News currently sees Hillary Clinton with 287 electoral votes, and that’s not counting winning any “Toss up” states.
From Fox News
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website currently indicates Clinton willing with 307 electoral votes.
From Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight
Huffington Post Poll Tracker sees Clinton with a 6 point lead over Trump, 48.2% vs. 42% respectively.
And the New York Times Upshot thinks Clinton has an 88% chance of winning the White House:
More polling info indicates the recent letter from FBI Director James Comey to Congress about possible new emails “pertinent” to Hillary Clinton aren’t affecting the presidential race.
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll showed Clinton with a 6-point lead over Trump in the days prior to the Comey news.
When looking at the data for Saturday and Sunday only, her lead remained the same — 47 percent to Trump’s 41 percent. The poll was conducted online from October 24 through October 30. Questions about Comey’s announcement were included on October 29 and October 30.
Results for the entire week of the tracking poll show that in a four-way match-up, Clinton enjoys 47 percent support among likely voters, while Trump holds onto 41 percent support. Gary Johnson drops a single point to 6 percent support, and Jill Stein has 3 percent support. In a two-way race, Clinton enjoys a 7-point lead over Trump, with 51 percent support compared to Trump’s 44 percent.
The latest Politico/Morning Consult poll show Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump 46% to 43% in a two-way race, and 42% to 39% in a four-way race, with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 7% and the Green Party’s Jill Stein at 5%.
The poll was conducted after FBI Director James Comey announced the discovery of new emails that might pertain to the former secretary of state’s private server using an online panel of 1,772 likely voters on Saturday and Sunday, beginning one day after Comey’s announcement.
The New York Times’ Upshot gives Hillary Clinton a 92% chance of winning the White House.
Additionally, a Quinnipiac University poll of swing-states shows Clinton tied with Trump at 44% in Iowa, and trailing by just 1 point in Georgia at 43%.
To underscore those numbers – Hillary has never really dominated in Iowa and Trump was ahead there by 7 a month ago. And Georgia is such a ruby-red state you have to wonder what’s up that Hillary is within one point of Trump there.
Amazing.
All that said, I need all you shiny, happy people to get out and vote for my girl, Hillary Clinton.
Democrat Hillary Clinton continues to hold a solid 7 point lead in the battleground state of Pennsylvania according to the latest Siena College poll, conducted for The New York Times’ “Upshot.”
The survey indicates Clinton ahead of Trump 46% – 39%.
Libertarian Gary Johnson is down in the single digits with 6%, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein lags at 3%.
The Associated Press is reporting results of a new national Associated Press-GfK poll giving Democrat Hillary Clinton a huge lead over Republican Donald Trump.
Overall, the poll shows Clinton leading Trump nationally by a staggering 14 percentage points among likely voters, 51-37. While that is one of her largest margins among recent national surveys, most show the former secretary of state with a substantial national lead over the billionaire businessman.
The AP-GfK poll finds that Clinton has secured the support of 90 percent of likely Democratic voters, and also has the backing of 15 percent of more moderate Republicans. Just 79 percent of all Republicans surveyed say they are voting for their party’s nominee.
With voting already underway in 37 states, Trump’s opportunities to overtake Clinton are quickly evaporating — and voters appear to know it. The AP-GfK poll found that 74 percent of likely voters believe Clinton will win, up from 63 percent in September.
To be fair and to show you how widely these things can swing, a new Fox News poll shows Clinton only THREE points ahead of Trump – 44% / 41% respectively.
So, it’s wise to take all these polls with a grain of salt. I suggest looking at an averaging of good polls like you get at FiveThirtyEight.
In a four-way match-up, Clinton enjoys 46 percent support this week among likely voters, while Trump holds onto 41 percent support. Gary Johnson maintains 7 percent support and Jill Stein has 3 percent support. In a two way race, Clinton enjoys a 6 point lead over Trump with 50 percent support compared to Trump’s 44 percent.
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight site still shows Hillary with an 86% chance of winning the White House:
Here’s where the Huffpost Tracker has the race – Hillary at 49% versus Donald at 41.4%:
The latest CNN/ORC poll shows Democrat Hillary Clinton holding a solid 5 point lead ahead of Republican Donald Trump. When the third party candidates are factored out, Clinton leads by 6 points.
Among likely voters, Clinton tops Trump 49% to 44%, with just 3% backing Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2% behind Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
Clinton now stands at 53% among voters under age 45, compared with 47% in the previous CNN/ORC poll. In fact, the only age group where Clinton currently trails Trump is among those age 50-64, who back Trump by 4 points in this poll.
Clinton’s support has also ticked up a few points among non-whites (72% back her now vs. 69% in a poll conducted just after the first debate, not a large enough change to be significant, but edges her margin over Trump among this group above 50 points).
Trump has gained a bit among white voters, edging up to 54% in the new poll from 49% support in the last poll. That gain is centered largely among white non-college voters, who break for Trump by a 62% to 32% margin, while white college grads continue to lean in Clinton’s direction, favoring the former secretary of state by 11 points.
The gender gap remains large, with Clinton holding a wide 12-point lead among women, topping Trump 53% to 41% among that group, while Trump edges Clinton by a narrow 3-points among men, 48% to 45%.
CNN’s “Poll of Polls” – which averages the results of several major national polls – shows Clinton with a 9 point lead.
