Swing State: Biden Leads Trump By 6 Points In Florida Poll

You see a lot of chatter on social media along the lines of “Ignore the polls, they were all wrong in 2016.” In truth, ALL the polls weren’t wrong. If you look at the RealClearPolitics average of polls at the end of the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton led Trump by an average of 3.2 points. Remember, national polls basically gauge the popular vote. Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1 points, off by a point which just about every polling organization would give you as margin of error. My point being national polling might give a sense of the electorate at a given time but it won’t predict the election. If you want to follow the race, watch the six or seven swing states (Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, Minnesota) that will decide the election. I say “decide” because let’s face it, we know California and New York will go blue. We know Tennessee and Indiana will go red. Which brings me to today’s polling from Florida, where Trump beat Hillary by just 1.2 points. According to a Florida Atlantic University poll released today, former Vice President Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 6 points in the Sunshine State. The survey, conducted May 8-12 shows Biden with 53 percent support while Trump garnered 47 percent. The same poll in March showed Trump with a slight lead, 51 percent to 49.

Poll: Biden Leads Trump By 9 Points In Senate Battleground States

L-R Former Vice President Joe Biden, Donald Trump
A new poll of voters in six states where Republican senators up for reelection this year are facing some tough races shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 9 points. Hart Research Associates surveyed voters in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Montana, and North Carolina, and found support for Biden at 50% while Trump garnered 41% support. Of the six states, Trump scored 2016 wins in Arizona, Iowa, Montana and North Carolina. Democrats will need to win in four of those states to win a majority in the Senate. The poll showed the Republican incumbents lagging the Democratic challengers by five points – 41 to 46 respectively. The GOP incumbents are Sens. Marth McSally (Ariz.), Cory Gardner (Colo.), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Susan Collins (Maine), Steve Daines (Mont.) and Thom Tillis (N.C.). The poll also asked voters about their feelings on mail-in ballots this fall in light of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Voters in the six battleground states overwhelmingly support the idea with 85% saying a mail option should be available.

News Round-Up: May 6, 2020

The original and new casts of Queer Eye will compete on Celebrity Family Feud
Some news items you might have missed: • HRC: On the 8th anniversary of former Vice President Joe Biden’s endorsement of marriage equality, the Human Rights Campaign announced its endorsement of Biden for President. HRC’s Board of Directors, comprised of 26 community leaders from across the nation, unanimously and enthusiastically voted to endorse Biden. “Vice President Joe Biden is the leader our community and our country need at this moment,” said HRC President Alphonso David. • NY Times: Education Secretary Betsy DeVos on Wednesday issued final rules for how public and private schools must address allegations of sexual misconduct locking in protections for accused students and faculty. The new regulations narrow the definition of sexual harassment and require colleges to hold live hearings during which alleged victims and accused perpetrators can be cross-examined to challenge their credibility. • Out: On Sunday, May 31 Celebrity Family Feud is set to host the casts of the old and new iterations of Queer Eye (above) in a face-off for charity. The full, original cast will play for The Trevor Project and the new squad (with Karamo Brown swapped out for a featured guest from season 4) will compete for GLSEN.

Daily Herald: Two Utah County businesses told staff to not follow quarantine guidelines and required staff who had tested positive to report to work resulting in 68 positive cases. • Variety: For the past seven decades, the show has always gone on for the Tony Awards, which honor the best Broadway performances and productions. But with the 74th edition being postponed from its planned June 7 date due to the coronavirus, there’s a real chance that the ceremony will be scrapped altogether this year. • CBS News: At an event marking National Nurses Day at the White House, Donald Trump contradicted Sophia Thomas, the president of the American Association of Nurse Practitioners who works at a community health center in New Orleans, who said the availability of personal protective equipment has been “sporadic.”

Inconsistencies (And Edited Accusations) Muddy Assault Allegations Against Biden

Former Vice President Joe Biden on MSNBC (screen capture)
Former Vice President and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, in a statement from his campaign, explicitly denied accusations that he sexually assaulted a former aide during his time in the Senate.

I want to address allegations by a former staffer that I engaged in misconduct 27 years ago. They aren’t true. This never happened.

While the details of these allegations of sexual harassment and sexual assault are complicated, two things are not complicated.

One is that women deserve to be treated with dignity and respect, and when they step forward they should be heard, not silenced. The second is that their stories should be subject to appropriate inquiry and scrutiny.

Responsible news organizations should examine and evaluate the full and growing record of inconsistencies in her story, which has changed repeatedly in both small and big ways.

More from the Washington Post:

Biden echoed his denial on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” shortly after the statement was released. He also called on the National Archives to release any record of a complaint that the former aide, Tara Reade, says she filed. “If there was ever any such complaint, the record will be there,” said Biden.

In a statement released Friday afternoon, the National Archives said that “any records of Senate personnel complaints from 1993 would have remained under the control of the Senate.”

“Accordingly, inquiries related to these records should be directed to the Senate,” the statement added.

Reade has said that she filed a complaint with a congressional human resources or personnel office but did not remember the exact name. Her complaint dealt only with the alleged harassment, not the alleged assault, she said. The Post could find no record of the complaint, and Reade said she didn’t have a copy.

In an MSNBC interview with host Mika Brzezinski, Biden appeared from his makeshift home television studio in Delaware. It was the first time he faced questions on the allegations in a public setting.

“I don’t remember any type of complaint she may have made,” Biden said in the interview, when asked if he remembered Reade or the complaint. “It was 27 years ago, and I don’t remember. Nor does anyone else that I’m aware of.”

Reade made her initial accusation last year to several news outlets: that Biden had put his hands on her shoulders and neck when she was working in his Senate office and it made her ‘uncomfortable.’ She says that she brought up the incident to senior aides in the office, but when interviewed those aides told the Washington Post that they had no memory of her allegations. Reade also says she filed a report about the incident, which she’s characterized as changing ‘the trajectory’ of her life, but says she didn’t keep a copy. No one seems to know anything about the alleged report. Then during a podcast interview last month, her allegations escalated to claiming Biden sexually assaulted her somewhere on Capitol Hill. She said he pushed her up against a wall, moved his hands up under her skirt and penetrated her. In a detailed examination of her account two weeks ago, the Washington Post wrote that one of her friends confirmed that Reade had told her of an incident shortly after she said it had occurred. In that same report, the Post wrote that Reade’s brother, Collin Moulton, acknowledged that she had told him in 1993 that Biden had touched her neck and shoulders. But there was no mention of the actual sexual assault – clearly the most important aspect of the alleged incident. Interestingly, days after the interview, he sent messages via texts adding that he “recalled her telling him that Biden had put his hand under her clothes.'” At this point in this post, I want to state clearly: I have personally been the target of sexual misconduct in the workplace in the past. Additionally, I was sexually assaulted during a first “date” in the early 1990s. I firmly believe anyone who raises such allegations should be taken seriously and the accusations should be properly vetted. That said, I don’t think every single accusation should be blindly taken as truth. While Biden has been accused of over-hugging in the past, which has often been attributed to his age and how men acted in the past, he’s since acknowledged times have changed and he plans to be more aware of touching people. Michael J. Stern, a 28-year federal and state prosecutor who handled numerous sexual assault cases, penned an op-ed for USA Today explaining his skepticism regarding Reade’s allegations. I encourage you to read it in full, but some of the issues he raises are: • Reade waiting 27 years to make her accusations public. • She spoke with a newspaper last year and accused Biden of touching her in a way that made her uncomfortable — but neglected to mention her claim that he forcibly penetrated her with his fingers. She later said she felt uncomfortable with the reporter, but as Stern points out, why would it take a year to find a qualified journalist to tell her story to? • The New York Times and the Washington Post have cumulatively interviewed dozens of people in the past month about Reade’s accusation and no other allegations of sexual assault by Biden arose. As Stern writes, “In my experience, men who commit a sexual assault are accused more than once … like Donald Trump, who has had more than a dozen allegations of sexual assault leveled against him and who was recorded bragging about grabbing women’s genitalia.” • Biden campaigned and went on to become Vice President of the United States for 8 years, but Reade never said anything during that time. • In 2017, on multiple occasions, Reade retweeted or “liked” praise for Biden and his work combating sexual assault. It is bizarre that Reade would publicly laud Biden for combating the very thing she would later accuse him of doing to her. • By January of 2020, though, Reade had become a supporter of Sen. Bernie Sanders and penned an essay on Medium saying the Democratic party was trying to “shove” Biden down Democrats throats. She also wrote approvingly of Russian President Vladimir Putin. • Speaking of timing, Stern notes that Reade’s allegations didn’t escalate to full-on sexual assault until Biden began to win in the Democratic primaries in March. There’s much more in Stern’s USA Today op-ed and I encourage you to read it. One more thing I’ll add here. On the same day Reade accused Joe Biden of sexual assault in March, she apparently edited her previous statements posted to her Medium account to better match the new allegations. At that link, a journalist has compared and highlighted the numerous additions and deletions made on March 24, 2020. Why would she alter her original words without mentioning the amendment on her post…on the DAY she accused him of sexual assault? As I earlier stated, I believe allegations of sexual assault should be taken seriously. But believing ALL accusations blindly doesn’t serve women, the #MeToo movement or truth as a whole.

Hillary Clinton Endorses Biden: ‘I Wish He Were President Right Now’

(image via Twitter)
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton endorsed her longtime friend and colleague, former Vice President Joe Biden, for president today adding, “I wish he were president right now.” From the New York Times:

Hillary Clinton, the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee and a political veteran who knows firsthand what it is like to compete against President Trump, threw her support behind Joseph R. Biden Jr. on Tuesday, the latest party leader to make the case for returning the White House to Democratic hands in November.

“I’ve been not only a colleague of Joe Biden’s, I’ve been a friend, and I can tell you that I wish he were president right now but I can’t wait until he is — if all of us do our part to support the kind of person that we want back in the White House,” Mrs. Clinton said on Tuesday afternoon during a virtual town hall-style event with Mr. Biden about the impact of the coronavirus on women.

Accepting her support, Mr. Biden said: “I really appreciate your friendship. What a, just a wonderful personal endorsement.”

Here’s the full Town Hall video from today:

Billy Porter Debuts Music Video: “I Want My Art To Make A Difference”

During former Vice President Joe Biden’s streaming event on Saturday celebrating the one-year anniversary of his entry into the 2020 presidential race, Emmy/Tony/Grammy Award winner Billy Porter premiered the lyric video for his new single, “For What It’s Worth.” Biden’s “Soul of a Nation” event encouraged supporters to take action to help support their local communities as well as thanking front line essential workers and first responders. It was a theme of community that inspired Porter to record the ubiquitous classic: “I decided to record ‘For What It’s Worth’ because I wanted to have my art and my music matter, make a difference. I come from the generation where the music reflected what was going on in the world. I wanted to have a hand in bringing that back and speaking truth directly to power.” Tying into the theme of Biden’s event, Porter called for citizens to make sure they are registered to vote and then do so in November. “Our voices and our votes matter now more than ever,” said Porter. “I’m not going to tell you who to vote for, I just want you to vote. I, personally, will be casting my vote for Joe Biden.” You can register to vote by clicking here. For the song’s video, Porter turned to artist Kameron Neal to create a compelling and important piece of visual art. “This lyric video is EVERYTHING!,” said Porter. “Kameron Neal did an amazing job of capturing the right tone with the right imagery, usage of color, the interesting typography, and the reference to the classic Selma to Montgomery March photo. When I saw the final version, I cried.”

News Round-Up: April 22, 2020

Ansel Elgort (image via IMDB)
Some news items you might have missed: • Entertainment Weekly: Actor Ansel Elgort (above) left the internet shook Tuesday night when he shared a revealing photo via social media with the caption, “OnlyFans LINK IN BIO.” Turns out the link actually directed his fans to a crowdfunding campaign “Brooklyn For Life!” to help feed those working on the frontlines at hospitals in Brooklyn, New York. • Radio.com: During an appearance on “I’m Listening: Stay Connected,” Walking Dead star Daniel Newman shared that, thanks to homophobia, sexuality played a deeply negative role in his life growing up as a gay man. He said he was told from childhood “that sex is private, you don’t talk about it, gay people are weird, it’s gonna ruin your career if you say anything. And on top of that, it’s nobody’s business, so just keep your mouth shut. So I felt the weight of that since I was a child.” • The Hill: Nineteen people who either voted in-person or worked at a polling location during Wisconsin’s state elections have tested positive for COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, the state’s health department told The Hill. • SiriusXM: From Blythe Danner to Demi Lovato, the “Will & Grace” cast shares stories on guest stars during a virtual town hall with Jess Cagle.

The Daily Beast: A company Trump personally championed — even as it’s under investigation by the Defense Department inspector general – has been awarded a $7.6 million contract to build “800 linear feet” bollard barrier—that slatted design Trump favors—for the wall in Yuma, Arizona. • Washington Post: Former vice president Joe Biden said he intends to name a panel of advisers by May 1 to help him select a running mate. He says that he wants the public to be able to see his pick as “capable of being president of the United States tomorrow.” • Texas Tribune: El Paso Mayor Dee Margo on Tuesday said city officials should probably consider suing President Trump’s campaign to recoup more than $500,000 in expenses incurred during a rally last year. The city spent about $470,000 on security and other costs for a Trump rally in South El Paso in February 2019. Thirteen other cities are also waiting on repayment from the Trump campaign. • Out Music: Randy Report favorite Tom Goss drops this fun, light-hearted new music video, “Dancing In My Room,” with Natalie Jane, Sam Renascent, and Max Emerson. “This infectious, feel-good video features people of all ages and backgrounds across 10 different countries and 5 continents — and reminds those struggling and in need of community that they are not alone,” says Goss. “The single is available in English, Spanish, and French with rap features in different languages from artists on different continents. All proceeds from “Danser dans ma chambre Dancing in My Room” will go to United Way Worldwide.

United Auto Workers Endorse Biden For President

Former Vice President Joe Biden (image via campaign)
The nearly 400,000 strong United Auto Workers union announced its endorsement of former Vice President Joe Biden on Tuesday saying the U.S. needs stable leadership with less acrimony “and more balance to the rights and protections of working Americans.” From the AP:

The union says Biden has committed to reining in corporate power over workers, encouraging collective bargaining, and making sure workers get the pay, benefits and protections they deserve. Biden also has committed to expand access to affordable health care, the union said.

Union negotiators are currently in talks with Ford, General Motors and Fiat Chrysler about restarting U.S. factories that have been closed for the past month due to fears of spreading the coronavirus.

“This issue demonstrates the need for presidential leadership to follow the guidance of science and give workers a seat in discussions over their safety and well-being,” the union’s statement said.

Elizabeth Warren “I’m Proud To Endorse Joe Biden As President Of The US”

L-R Joe Biden, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (images via campaign sites)
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) endorsed former Vice President Joe Biden for president today via a video message. Noting that she hasn’t agreed 100% of the time with any lawmaker during her tenure in public life, Warren says she appreciates that when she and Biden haven’t seen eye-to-eye it’s evident he listens and hears other viewpoints. She also points out Biden’s ability to empathize with others in times of crisis, something many have noted Donald Trump severely lacks. “Empathy matters,” says Warren. “And, in this moment of crisis, it’s more important than ever that the next president restores Americans’ faith in good, effective government.” “Joe Biden has spent nearly his entire life in public service. He knows that a government run with integrity, competence, and heart will save lives and save livelihoods. And we can’t afford to let Donald Trump continue to endanger the lives and livelihoods of every American. That’s why I’m proud to endorse Joe Biden as president of the United States.”

President Obama Endorses Joe Biden For President

Former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Joe Biden (public domain)
Former President Barack Obama released a video today endorsing his former vice president, Joe Biden, for president in the 2020 election.  

Here’s the full transcript of the endorsement: Obama’s full endorsement: Hi everybody. Let me start by saying the obvious – these aren’t normal times. As we all manage our way through a pandemic unlike anything we’ve seen in a century, Michelle and I hope that you and your families are safe and well. If you’ve lost somebody to this virus, or if someone in your life is sick, or if you’re one of the millions suffering economic hardship, please know that you’re in our prayers. Please know that you’re not alone. Because now’s the time for all of us to help where we can and to be there for each other, as neighbors, as coworkers, and as fellow citizens. In fact, over the past weeks, we’ve seen plenty of examples of the kind of courage, kindness, and selflessness that we’re going to need to get through one of the most difficult times in our history. Michelle and I have been amazed at the incredible bravery of our medical professionals who are putting their lives on the line to save others. The public servants and health officials battling this disease. The workers taking risks every day to keep our economy running. And everyone who’s making their own sacrifice at home with their families, all for the greater good. But if there’s one thing we’ve learned as a country from moments of great crisis, it’s that the spirit of looking out for one another can’t be restricted to our homes, or our workplaces, or our neighborhoods, or our houses of worship. It also has to be reflected in our national government. The kind of leadership that’s guided by knowledge and experience; honesty and humility; empathy and grace – that kind of leadership doesn’t just belong in our state capitols and mayors offices. It belongs in the White House. And that’s why I’m so proud to endorse Joe Biden for President of the United States. Choosing Joe to be my Vice President was one of the best decisions I ever made, and he became a close friend. And I believe Joe has all the qualities we need in a President right now. He’s someone whose own life has taught him how to persevere; how to bounce back when you’ve been knocked down. When Joe talks with parents who’ve lost their jobs, we hear the son of a man who once knew the pain of having to tell his children that he’d lost his. When Joe talks about opportunity for our kids, we hear the young father who took the train home each night so he could tuck his children into bed – and we hear the influence of Jill, a life-long teacher. When Joe talks to families who’ve lost a hero, we hear another parent of an American veteran; a kindred spirit; somebody whose faith has endured the hardest loss there is. That’s Joe. Through all his trials, he’s never once forgotten the values or the moral fiber that his parents passed on to him, and that made him who he is. That’s what steels his faith – in God, in America, and in all of us. That steel made him an incredible partner when I needed one the most. Joe was there as we rebuilt from the Great Recession and rescued the American auto industry. He was the one asking what every policy would do for the middle class and everyone striving to get into the middle class. That’s why I asked him to implement the Recovery Act, which saved millions of jobs and got people back on their feet – because Joe gets stuff done. Joe helped me manage H1N1 and prevent the Ebola epidemic from becoming the type of pandemic we’re seeing now. He helped me restore America’s standing and leadership in the world on the other threats of our time, like nuclear proliferation and climate change. Joe has the character and the experience to guide us through one of our darkest times and heal us through a long recovery. And I know he’ll surround himself with good people – experts, scientists, military officials who actually know how to run the government and care about doing a good job running the government, and know how to work with our allies, and who will always put the American people’s interests above their own. Now Joe will be a better candidate for having run the gauntlet of primaries and caucuses alongside one of the most impressive Democratic fields ever. Each of our candidates were talented and decent, with a track record of accomplishment, smart ideas, and serious visions for the future. And that’s certainly true of the candidate who made it farther than any other – Bernie Sanders. Bernie’s an American original – a man who has devoted his life to giving voice to working people’s hopes, dreams, and frustrations. He and I haven’t always agreed on everything, but we’ve always shared a conviction that we have to make America a fairer, more just, more equitable society. We both know that nothing is more powerful than millions of voices calling for change. And the ideas he’s championed; the energy and enthusiasm he inspired, especially in young people, will be critical in moving America in a direction of progress and hope. Because for the second time in twelve years, we’ll have the incredible task of rebuilding our economy. And to meet the moment, the Democratic Party will have to be bold. You know, I could not be prouder of the incredible progress that we made together during my presidency. But if I were running today, I wouldn’t run the same race or have the same platform as I did in 2008. The world is different; there’s too much unfinished business for us to just look backwards. We have to look to the future. Bernie understands that. And Joe understands that. It’s one of the reasons that Joe already has what is the most progressive platform of any major party nominee in history. Because even before the pandemic turned the world upside down, it was already clear that we needed real structural change. The vast inequalities created by the new economy are easier to see now, but they existed long before this pandemic hit. Health professionals, teachers, delivery drivers, grocery clerks, cleaners, the people who truly make our economy run – they’ve always been essential. And for years, too many of the people who do the essential work of this country have been underpaid, financially stressed, and given too little support. And that applies to the next generation of Americans – young people graduating into unprecedented unemployment. They’re going to need economic policies that give them faith in the future and give them relief from crushing student loan debt. So we need to do more than just tinker around the edges with tax credits or underfunded programs. We have to go further to give everybody a great education, a lasting career, and a stable retirement. We have to protect the gains we made with the Affordable Care Act, but it’s also time to go further. We should make plans affordable for everyone, provide everyone with a public option, expand Medicare, and finish the job so that health care isn’t just a right, but a reality for everybody. We have to return the U.S. to the Paris Agreement, and lead the world in reducing the pollution that causes climate change. But science tells us we have to go much further – that it’s time for us to accelerate progress on bold new green initiatives that make our economy a clean energy innovator, save us money, and secure our children’s future. Of course, Democrats may not always agree on every detail of the best way to bring about each and every one of these changes. But we do agree that they’re needed. And that only happens if we win this election. Because one thing everybody has learned by now is that the Republicans occupying the White House and running the U.S. Senate are not interested in progress. They’re interested in power. They’ve shown themselves willing to kick millions off their health insurance and eliminate preexisting condition protections for millions more, even in the middle of this public health crisis, even as they’re willing to spend a trillion dollars on tax cuts for the wealthy. They’ve given polluters unlimited power to poison our air and our water, and denied the science of climate change just as they denied the science of pandemics. Repeatedly, they’ve disregarded American principles of rule of law, and voting rights, and transparency – basic norms that previous administrations observed regardless of party. Principles that are the bedrock of our democracy. So our country’s future hangs on this election. And it won’t be easy. The other side has a massive war chest. The other side has a propaganda network with little regard for the truth. On the other hand, pandemics have a way of cutting through a lot of noise and spin to remind us of what is real, and what is important. This crisis has reminded us that government matters. It’s reminded us that good government matters. That facts and science matter. That the rule of law matters. That having leaders who are informed, and honest, and seek to bring people together rather than drive them apart – those kind of leaders matter. In other words, elections matter. Right now, we need Americans of goodwill to unite in a great awakening against a politics that too often has been characterized by corruption, carelessness, self-dealing, disinformation, ignorance, and just plain meanness. And to change that, we need Americans of all political stripes to get involved in our politics and our public life like never before. For those of us who believe in building a more just, more generous, more democratic America where everybody has a fair shot at opportunity. For those of us who believe in a government that cares about the many, and not just the few. For those of us who love this country and are willing to do our part to make sure it lives up to its highest ideals – now’s the time to fight for what we believe in. So join us. Join Joe. Go to JoeBiden.com right now. Make a plan for how you are going to get involved. Keep taking care of yourself, and your families, and each other. Keep believing in the possibilities of a better world. And I will see you on the campaign trail as soon as I can. Thanks.