The Republican culture wars against LGBTQ people have begun to take their toll as Gallup Polling shows the number of Americans who feel same-sex relations are morally acceptable has fallen in the past year from 2022’s record high. Continue reading “Gallup: Support For Same-Sex Relations Falls To 64%”
Latest Polls In Battleground States AZ, PA & GA
Just taking a look at some of the recent polling in swing state races as we approach the upcoming midterm elections. Continue reading “Latest Polls In Battleground States AZ, PA & GA”
Fox News Poll Shows Biden 9+ Over Trump In Wisconsin
As I’ve pointed out in the past, while national polls may provide a snapshot of the mood of the American electorate, it’s polling in about seven swing states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Minnesota) that you would want to keep an eye on. A new Fox News poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 9 points in the vital swing state of Wisconsin.
Majorities of Wisconsin voters rate the economy negatively and are concerned about coronavirus. That helps explain Democrat Joe Biden’s gains in the presidential race, in a Fox News Poll of Wisconsin registered voters released Wednesday.
Biden has a 9-point edge over President Donald Trump, 49-40 percent. That’s up from a 5-point advantage in January, and is outside the poll’s margin of sampling error. Another 11 percent are uncommitted.
A big reason Trump trails Biden is lack of party support: 85 percent of Republicans back him, while 93 percent of Democrats support Biden. Eight percent of Republicans defect to Biden. In addition, only 87 percent of those who approve of Trump’s job performance support his reelection.
Biden leads Trump by 14 points on job handling of the coronavirus health threat and 22 points on race relations. Only 22 percent view the economy in a positive light, while 76 percent rate it as fair or poor. Biden’s favorable rating (52 percent) is 8 points higher than his unfavorable (44 percent). Trump, however, is upside down by 12 points (43 favorable, 55 unfavorable). Trump’s strongest backing comes from (no surprise here) white men without a college degree (+19 points), white evangelical Christians (+29), and self-described very conservatives (+81). But Biden scores stronger support among women (+20 points), suburban voters (+14), and independents (+8). Of those voters who describe themselves as ‘extremely interested’ in the upcoming election, Biden holds a 15 point lead over Trump (55-40 percent). Also – there are more Biden supporters who say they are ‘extremely motivated’ to vote in the upcoming election (71 percent) than Trump supporters (63 percent) who say the same.
Swing State: Biden Leads Trump By 6 Points In Florida Poll
You see a lot of chatter on social media along the lines of “Ignore the polls, they were all wrong in 2016.” In truth, ALL the polls weren’t wrong. If you look at the RealClearPolitics average of polls at the end of the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton led Trump by an average of 3.2 points. Remember, national polls basically gauge the popular vote. Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1 points, off by a point which just about every polling organization would give you as margin of error. My point being national polling might give a sense of the electorate at a given time but it won’t predict the election. If you want to follow the race, watch the six or seven swing states (Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, Minnesota) that will decide the election. I say “decide” because let’s face it, we know California and New York will go blue. We know Tennessee and Indiana will go red. Which brings me to today’s polling from Florida, where Trump beat Hillary by just 1.2 points. According to a Florida Atlantic University poll released today, former Vice President Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 6 points in the Sunshine State. The survey, conducted May 8-12 shows Biden with 53 percent support while Trump garnered 47 percent. The same poll in March showed Trump with a slight lead, 51 percent to 49.
FLORIDA Biden 53% (+6) Trump 47% Florida Atlantic University 5/8-12
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 15, 2020
Poll: Support For Removing Trump From Office At All-Time High
(image via public domain)
Fifty-five percent of those asked said they were in favor of the US president’s conviction by the Senate, a figure which has shot up from 48 percent the week before.
Meanwhile, the number of people against Mr. Trump’s removal has dropped to an all-time low, according to the MSN poll.
On Christmas Day, 40 percent were opposed to the Senate voting to convict the president, who has been impeached over his dealings with Ukraine and an alleged subsequent attempt to obstruct Congress.
The gap between the two views has become much wider since last week when there was little to divide them (48 percent in favor of Mr. Trump’s removal, 47 percent against).
Iowa: Mayor Pete Jumps To Second Place In New Poll
Mayor Pete Buttigieg (screen capture)
Of likely caucus-goers, 20% said Buttigieg is their top choice among the field of Democratic presidential candidates. That moves him to second in the poll – up from fourth in September – just behind Sen. Elizabeth Warren who maintained her lead at 28%.
The Iowa State University/Civiqs poll surveys the same pool of voters each month leading up to the Iowa Caucuses to understand how voter preferences are shifting.
Dave Peterson, a professor and Whitaker Lindgren faculty fellow in political science who organized the poll, says Buttigieg’s ground game in Iowa is paying off.
“You can attribute some of his momentum to basic retail politics. Buttigieg is incredibly well organized and is spending a lot of resources in Iowa. His presence at the Iowa Steak Fry last month was better than any other candidate,” Peterson said.
Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders were tied for second in the September poll. Sanders is now third with 18% and Biden is fourth at 12%.
After being the top fund-raising Democrat at the end of the second quarter, Team Buttigieg announced it would put that money to good use. In the past months, Buttigieg has opened more field offices in Iowa than any other candidate. While national polls look impressive, the story (if you’re looking for one) happening in primary season is the early states. A good finish in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or Nevada could inspire new traction for a candidate. If Buttigieg comes in second in Iowa, that will be a notable development.
Poll: Trump Trails Generic Democrat In Ohio
A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Donald Trump trailing a generic Democratic opponent 47-48 percent and his favorable/unfavorable rating is underwater at 47-51 percent. Innovation Ohio notes that among vital independent voters, Trump trails a generic Democrat 37-51 percent. “Ohio is a must-win state for President Trump. His poor numbers in this poll help to explain his early spending on TV and digital ads here,” said Innovation Ohio President Janetta King. Trump won Ohio in 2016 decisively by 8 points. Tested against five Democratic candidates Trump couldn’t break through the 47 percent mark.
New Ohio poll from @ppppolls and @InnovationOhio –
47-48% – President Trump trails generic Democrat
48-46% – Trump trails Biden
47-47% – Trump ties with both Warren and Sanders#AskMeAboutOhiohttps://t.co/PB2N0MctEW— Innovation Ohio (@innovationohio) October 14, 2019
SurveyUSA Poll: Both Biden & Sanders Would Beat Trump By 8 Points
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The results of a new poll of head-to-head matchups between Donald Trump and possible Democratic opponents by SurveyUSA shows two front-runners would beat Trump by 8 points.
The poll of 5,459 registered voters nationwide showed:
• Former Vice President Biden 50%, President Trump 42%
• Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 50%, Trump 42%
• Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren 46%, Trump 44% — too close to call
• California Senator Kamala Harris 45%, Trump 44% — too close to call
• Trump 44%, South Bend IN Mayor Pete Buttigieg 42% — too close to call
The polling company says that the survey “approximates the outcome of the USA popular vote but not necessarily the outcome of the Electoral College.”
SurveyUSA also notes that Trump doesn’t break 44% against any Democratic opponent.
Poll: Slight Majority Of Americans Believe Trump Is Racist
According to a new poll by Quinnipiac University, a slight majority of Americans believe Donald Trump is racist (51 percent) versus 45 percent who say he is not racist.
Think how incredible it is that we are even having such a conversation – is the president of the United States racist?
Of those polled, 80 percent of black respondents say Trump is racist, 11 percent disagree.
Among Hispanic voters, 55 percent say Trump is racist, 44 percent disagree.
There’s a gender divide on the issue as well. While 55 percent of men do not feel Trump is racist, 59 percent of women do believe the Commander in Chief is racist.
When it comes to impeachment proceedings, 60 percent say Congress should not begin impeachment proceedings, 32 percent support moving forward with articles of impeachment.
Regarding the recent Mueller investigation, 52 percent of respondents said they believe Trump attempted to “derail or obstruct” the investigation, 40 percent disagreed.
And 71 percent of those polled are “concerned” or “very concerned” a foreign government will try to interfere in the upcoming 2020 elections.
A huge majority – 87 percent – disagree with the president and believe political campaigns should be required to contact the FBI if contacted by a foreign government with dirt on their political opponent.
And 59 percent support additional laws to protect U.S. elections versus 31 percent who do not. Of those, 54 percent of Republicans (surprise) think current laws are enough.
More details at Quinnipiac University site here.
Morning Consult Poll Shows Biden Still Leads In Dem Primary Race
On a daily basis, Morning Consult is surveying over 5,000 registered voters across the United States on the 2020 presidential election.
Every Monday, MC shares the latest survey data, offering an in-depth guide to how the race for the Democratic nomination is shaping up.
The below are the results from Democratic primary voters nationwide.
The latest results are based on 16,504 survey interviews conducted between July 8-14, 2019.
As you can see, former Vice President Joe Biden continues to lead the pack with 32 percent support, with Sen. Bernie Sanders in second place at 19 percent.
Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Kamala Harris (D-CA) place third and fourth with 14 percent and 13 percent respectively.
And Mayor Pete Buttigieg rounds out the Top 5 at 5 percent.