New Polls Show Post-Debate Shakeup Among Democrats

Sens. Elizabeth Warren (L) and Kamala Harris (R)

New polling shows how the first Democratic presidential debates affected the early race.

The latest from Quinnipiac University polling shows former Vice President Joe Biden getting his lowest numbers to date dropping to 22 percent.

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) jumped up to second place with 20 percent support.

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren follows at 14 percent, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is at 13 percent, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg gets 4 percent. No other candidate garnered more than 3 percent.

The June 11 Quinnipiac University Poll showed Biden at 30 percent, Sanders at 19 percent, Warren with 15 percent, Buttigieg at 8 percent, and Harris with 7 percent.

And in Iowa, Elizabeth Warren has vaulted to the number one position in the new David Binder Research poll.

From IowaStartingLine:

Elizabeth Warren leads the pack in the Iowa Caucus, according to a new poll out this morning from David Binder Research, currently earning the support of 20% of likely Democratic caucus-goers.

Kamala Harris and Joe Biden are both within the margin of error with Warren for first place, but they trail just slightly at 18% for Harris and 17% for Biden.

Bernie Sanders has fallen to fourth place in the polling, sitting at 12%, while Pete Buttigieg has 10% in the survey.

Amy Klobuchar and Cory Booker round out the the field with 4% and 2%, respectively, while everyone else is at 1% or below.

Gallup: Trump Lags Behind Modern Presidents In Approval

Donald Trump

Gallup polling shows Donald Trump lags behind most other modern presidents in terms of approval ratings.

The approval ratings reported here are based on Gallup Daily tracking averages for President Donald Trump in 2017 and 2018, and periodic multi-day polls for Trump starting in 2019.

As you can see from the graphic below via Gallup, Trump’s current approval stands at 43 percent.

His highest rating to date in the Gallup poll was 46 percent in April, and his lowest was 35 percent in December 2017.

Click image to enlarge

Compared with previous presidents at this point in their presidency, though, Trump lags behind just about every modern president except Jimmy Carter who was mired in the Iran hostage crisis and a terrible economy.

Barack Obama garnered 46 percent approval at this point; George W scored 63 percent; Bill Clinton, even with impeachment looming, had 47 percent approval.

Trump’s Own Polling Shows Him Trailing Joe Biden In Critical Swing States

ABC News has obtained data from Donald Trump's own internal campaign polling that shows him trailing former Vice President Joe Biden in critical battleground states.
Donald Trump

ABC News has obtained data from Donald Trump’s own internal campaign polling that shows him trailing former Vice President Joe Biden in critical battleground states.

According to the numbers:

Biden leads Trump by 16 points in Pennsylvania, 10 points in Wisconsin, and 7 points in Florida.

In deep red state Texas, Trump leads Biden but by only 2 points.

Until Trump’s narrow wins in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the two states had voted for the Democratic presidential candidate for decades. Trump cannot afford to lose either of those states as well as Florida.

Earlier this week, Trump denied that such polling exists.

ABC News reports it did not obtain any data on early matchups against other candidates.

The New York Times was first to report the existence of the internal polls.

The Trump campaign told ABC News the data is real but pushed back saying the numbers were old. The campaign apparently claimed that since that polling they’ve seen “huge swings” in Trump’s favor.

In related news, a new poll by EPIC-MRA of Lansing out today shows Biden leading Trump by 11 points 52%-41%.

Michigan was another traditionally blue state that went for Trump in 2016, but by less than 1 percentage point.

New Poll Shows Five Democrats Would Beat Trump

A new national poll by Ipsos/Reuters shows several Democratic candidates beating Donald Trump in hypothetical head-to-head matchups:

A new national poll by Ipsos/Reuters shows several Democratic candidates beating Donald Trump in hypothetical head-to-head matchups:

Biden 47% (+13)
Trump 34%

Sanders 44% (+9)
Trump 35%

Warren 40% (+4)
Trump 36%

Harris 39% (+3)
Trump 36%

Buttigieg 37% (+2)
Trump 35%

Click the link to see much more of the results.

I know it’s waaaaaay early, but I always find it interesting to see what folks might be thinking.

In truth, the next real shakeup will be the first Democratic debates on June 26/27.

Will anyone make a gaffe or suddenly have a shining moment?

Poll: Joe Biden Leads Dem Hopefuls By 19+

Sen. Bernie Sanders (L), former VP Joe Biden (C) and Sen. Kamala Harris (R)
A new national survey by Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden has an impressive 19 point lead over his nearest competitor for the Democratic presidential nomination.
The Hill reports that Biden pulled 36 percent support in the new poll while Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders garnered 17 percent.
California Sen. Kamala Harris came in third with 8 percent, and tying for fourth place were Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg with 5 percent.

New Polling Shows Trump Upside Down In Vital Swing State

Donald Trump

In the last six elections, the presidential candidate who won Florida went on to occupy the Oval Office.

So it should be disconcerting to Donald Trump that a new Bendixen & Amandi International poll of registered Florida voters showed a majority – 53% – do not think Trump should be re-elected to a second term. Forty percent indicated they would be in favor of the Donald serving for four more years.

Additionally, Trump’s support among Republicans in the Sunshine state, while high at 73%, is lower than his national average of 82% according to the latest Quinnipiac polling.

New Poll: 57% ‘Definitely Will Not Vote’ For Donald Trump In 2020

Donald Trump

More bad news today for Donald Trump as a new poll from PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist shows 57% say they will ‘Definitely not’ vote for Trump in the 2020 presidential election.

On the other end of the spectrum, only 30% said they will ‘definitely’ vote for Trump.

According to Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, “The president has had his base and not much else.”

Trump’s approval rating shows exactly that as 39% of those polled approve of the job he’s doing versus 53% who disapprove. This has been pretty much the average for the two years Trump has been in the White House.

When it comes to possible Democratic candidates, it’s very early to get a decent read but 76% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents said they had a favorable view of former Vice-President Joe Biden.

Sen. Bernie Sanders garnered 57% favorable approval, and 53% see Sen. Elizabeth Warren in a positive light.

When it comes to the current government shutdown, 54% of respondents said they blame Trump, while 31% blamed congressional Democrats.

Full results of the new poll can be found here.

Click over to NPR for additional insight into how folks are viewing the 2020 presidential race.

Michael Cohen Admits He Paid Tech Firm To Rig Online Polls For Trump

Michael Cohen

There’s a new revelation in the ever-unraveling saga of twists and turns behind the scenes of the 2016 Trump campaign today.

The Wall Street Journal (a conservative newspaper I’ll point out) is reporting that the Trump campaign paid a small IT company to rig online polling on websites like Drudge and CNBC in Trump’s favor.

And the company was paid by none other than Trump’s former ‘fixer,’ Michael Cohen.

The tech guy was, apparently, John Gauger, chief information officer at Liberty University in Virginia, where Trump supporter Jerry Falwell Jr. is president.

The WSJ‘s story is behind a firewall, but check this from CNN:

According to the paper, Cohen paid John Gauger, the owner of RedFinch Solutions LLC, between $12,000 and $13,000 for activities related to Trump’s campaign, including “trying unsuccessfully to manipulate two online polls in Mr. Trump’s favor” and creating a Twitter account called “@WomenForCohen” that “praised (Cohen’s) looks and character, and promoted his appearances and statements boosting” Trump’s candidacy.

In making the claim, Gauger told the paper he wasn’t fully paid for the work, though the Journal said Cohen was reimbursed $50,000 — the amount the two originally agreed on for Gauger’s services — by the Trump Organization. Gauger, according to the paper, also received a boxing glove “worn by a Brazilian mixed-martial arts fighter” along with the cash payment.

The payment to Gauger was mentioned by prosecutors in Cohen’s charging documents.

More Polling Shows Trump Bears The Blame For #TrumpShutdown

More Americans blame Donald Trump for current government shutdown
More Americans blame Donald Trump for current government shutdown

New polling from Morning Consult/Politico shows more Americans blame Donald Trump for the current shutdown of the federal government than the Democrats.

From the data culled from surveying 1,984 registered voters:

• 49% blame Donald Trump for the shutdown versus 33% who put the onus on Democrats

• 36% say Trump should declare a ‘national emergency’ to get his wall while a slight majority – 51% – would view that action as an abuse of power

• 47% say they will ‘definitely’ vote for someone other than Trump in the 2020 presidential election compared to just 23% who would ‘definitely’ vote for Trump

• Broken down by political party, 85% of Democrats and 48% of Independents say they would ‘definitely’ vote for someone other than Trump

• Only 54% of Republicans fall in the ‘definitely’ camp for Trump

Poll: Millennials Support LGBTQs But There’s One Surprise In The Results

New polling shows millennials support LGBTQ equality by solid majorities except one surprising result
(Photo by Helena Lopes from Pexels)

A recent nationwide survey of 1,750 millennials (ages 18 to 34) found solid support for LGBTQ rights and protections, with one eyebrow raising piece of data.

Political science professor Cathy Cohen facilitates the bimonthly GenForward poll and focused the June survey on LGBT issues, titled Millennial Views on LGBT Issues: Race, Identity, and Morality.

Cohen shared her thoughts on the results in an essay with The Advocate.

To a great degree, the results were encouraging.

Of those polled, 14% identified as “something other than heterosexual.”

While a majority of respondents say they know someone who is gay, lesbian or bisexual, only 22% of millennials of color and 37% of white millennials say they know someone who is transgender.

As we’ve seen throughout the past few decades, its visibility that helps move LGBTQ rights and respect forward.

When it comes to LGBTQ equality, a majority of millennials either “strongly” or “somewhat” favor adoption by LGBTQ folks, legal protections to prevent discrimination in the workplace, allowing transgender people to serve openly in the military, increasing government spending on HIV/AIDS and accepting more LGBTQ immigrants from countries with hostile policies towards our community.

There was widespread support for reducing violent hate crime and LGBTQ bullying. However, according to the survey, 53% of African-American millennials and 50% of Latinx millennials feel the issues LGBTQ people face today are different than those promoted by mainstream LGBTQ organizations.

Contrast that to white (58%) and Asian-American (50%) millennials who say everyone benefits when mainstream LGBTQ organizations strive for human rights.

The one eyebrow raising piece of data emerged from the question, “Has homosexuality led to a deterioration of morality in this country?”

A majority disagreed with the statement, but a surprising 41% agreed.

Wait, what?

And – 21% of the LGBTQ respondents agreed as well.

So, one-in-five LGBTQ millennials believe their own sexuality is a negative when it comes to morality in the United States?

Is this self-loathing in action?

Cohen noted that that question was the only occurrence of the word “homosexuality” in the survey. She hypothesizes that the word itself is still a trigger in American culture as “something bad and deviant.”

She also wondered if “homosexuality” might hold a different meaning for millennials than LGBTQ which is used more and more in social media.

Cohen concludes by writing, “It should remind us of all the work that remains to be done and how little we should take for granted when it comes to educating young people about the reality of LGBTQ lives, especially the lives of young queers of color.”

Check out the full essay at The Advocate.