Stats Genius Nate Silver Offers Advance General Election Forecast

Georgia’s 16 electoral votes would be my one quibble – the rest is possible.

I’m not hating this.

My Favorite Thing Today: Jimmy Kimmel “Mansplains” Campaigning To Hillary Clinton

Funny stuff here.

Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton gets some advice from Jimmy Kimmel via “mansplaining” on how to be more effective on the campaign trail.

As Kimmel defines it, “mansplaining” is “when a man explains something to a woman in a condescending way.”

Within seconds of beginning her stump speech, Kimmel interrupts “You’re shouting. You’re too loud. It comes off as a little shrill,” he pointed out. “For men.”

It ends up very funny. Good on Hillary for playing, and a real point gets made along the way.

CNN Poll: Hillary Clinton Would Beat Donald Trump 56%-42% In General Election

According to a new CNN/ORC poll, 56% of those surveyed believe former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would win against billionaire Donald Trump come November, while 42% say Trump would take it.

Additionally, Democrats feel stronger than Republicans do about their chances in such a hypothetical.

The survey shows 87% of Dems say Clinton would win versus 75% of Republicans who think the Trumpster would prevail.

In terms of favorable/unfavorable, Hillary Clinton scored higher with Democrats (73% favorable/25% unfavorable) versus Donald Trump with Republicans (63% favorable/34% unfavorable).

The Donald also has a serious issue with women voters – 74% of female voters overall have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.

When the majority of voters are women, it’s not hard to figure out you can’t win a general election with 3/4s of women not liking you.

HIllary Clinton On Donald Trump’s Israel Waffling: “Israel’s Security Is Non-Negotiable”

Democratic front-runner criticized Republican Donald Trump today in a speech at the pro-Israel American Israel Public Affairs Committee saying his changing positions on Israel are more than disconcerting.

This is the kind of solidarity talk Israel wants to see coming from an American president.

Via the New York Times:

In a rock-ribbed speech in Washington that previewed how she might confront Mr. Trump on foreign policy in a general-election campaign, Mrs. Clinton said, “We need steady hands, not a president who says he’s neutral on Monday, pro-Israel on Tuesday, and who-knows-what on Wednesday.”

“America can’t ever be neutral when it comes to Israel’s security and survival,” Mrs. Clinton said, speaking to the annual policy meeting of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the nation’s most influential pro-Israel lobbying group. “My friends, Israel’s security is nonnegotiable.”

Mr. Trump has said in recent weeks he would be “neutral” when it came to negotiating a peace accord between Israelis and Palestinians. The remark, in substance, did not stray far from traditional American policy. But his blunt language rattled some Israelis, who worry that it might mean a less supportive United States.

Clinton also invoked Tel Aviv’s huge LGBT pride parade as an example of both countries continuing histories of self-determination and liberty.

“We cannot be neutral about Israel and Israel’s future because in Israel’s story, we see our own and the story of all people who struggle for freedom and self-determination,” Clinton said. “There’s so many examples. We look at the Pride parade in Tel Aviv, one of the biggest and most prominent in the world, and we marvel that such a bastion of liberty exists in a region so plagued by intolerance.”

Arizona Republic Endorses Hillary Clinton

Arizona’a leading newspaper – the Arizona Republic – has endorsed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the upcoming Democratic primary on Tuesday.

Excerpt from the Arizona Republic:

Hillary Clinton deserves her due.

Not just because she has risen higher than any woman in American politics, but because she is by far the most experienced candidate of any of those running in either party this year. In fact, she is one of the most experienced people to ever run for president.

Clinton has been accused of cutting corners and making up her own rules. She is fiercely disliked in many corners of this country, viewed as a divisive figure.

But few people engaged in the large policy debates of our land could withstand the kind of public scrutiny Clinton has endured during her near-lifetime of public service. She carries with her the battle scars of conflicts and accusations that have diminished her over the years. She has struggled in this campaign to win over some Democrats who distrust her.

But she is also battle-tested, hardened by the fierce political infighting and partisanship that consumes political life in this country.

Her enemies, and they are legion, have sought to tear her down. But she is still standing, and on the cusp of the highest office in the land.

She has the mettle to be president. The sound judgment to be commander in chief.

Donald Trump Goes Instagram Attack Ad On Hillary Clinton

A video posted by Donald J. Trump (@realdonaldtrump) on Mar 16, 2016 at 9:15am PDT

Juxtaposing images of Russian President Putin body slamming an opponent, an ISIS terrorist pointing a gun and Hillary Clinton jokingly barking at a campaign stop, Donald Trump put all those ingredients together to try and say “Is this what we want for a President?”

Fortune Magazine calls the spot “insane.”

The short video is a mash-up of clips featuring a laughing Russian President Vladimir Putin, ISIS pointing a gun, and a Hillary Clinton barking like a dog—a moment taken out of context from a February stump speech. It’s overlaid with text that starts out “When it comes to facing our toughest opponents…” and goes into snapshots of Putin body slamming an opponent in a white karate uniform and an image of an Arabic-speaking terrorist pointing a gun at the screen.

That all leads into the implication that Clinton is a “punchline” to the U.S.’ most dangerous opponents as it cuts to a multi-second clip of her barking like a dog, a move that was initially meant to shame Republicans in one of her campaign speeches.

I’m guessing Trump is already aware he’s given mucho ammunition for attack ads from his own campaign stops?

Caitlyn Jenner Changes Course On HIllary Clinton: “Willing To Listen”

Caitlyn Jenner shared the pic above, featuring Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, on her Instagram yesterday.

Apparently, the photo is from January when Jenner and posse headed up to Iowa in advance of the first in the nation caucus. Jenner and company waited in the lobby of Clinton’s hotel  with lots of other folks hoping to get the photo op.

A bit surprising move considering Jenner has just recently called Clinton a “fucking liar” and a “political hack.” But the pic was accompanied by the hashtags #learningfrommygirls and #willingtolisten.

As I’ve said before, I appreciate the visibility Jenner brings to transgender issues, I’m not certain she’s the perfect role model for the trans community. But then, who of us IS the “perfect role model?”

#OpenMinds

If Larry Kramer Can Accept Hillary Clinton’s Apology, So Can I

In case you missed Hillary Clinton’s very in-depth follow-up to her apology for misspeaking on the Reagans’ history during the AIDS crisis in the 1980s – click here.

While her initial comment was painful for many of us who lived through the early years of the epidemic, her thoughtful and detailed response feels like an honest admission that she was wrong.

If Larry Kramer, the spiritual father of the AIDS protest years, can accept Hillary’s mea culpa, so can I.

Caitlyn Jenner On HIllary Clinton: “She’s A F*cking Liar”

On an upcoming episode of the soon-to-be-cancelled I Am Cait, Caitlyn Jenner shares her thoughts on the current presidential race.

On Donald Trump: “Um, I’m not a big fan because, I think, of his macho attitude. It doesn’t mean he wouldn’t be good for women’s issues, I think he would be very good for women’s issues.”

“I don’t think he’s out there to destroy women or takes things away or do any of that kind of stuff.”

On Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: “Oh my God. I would never ever ever vote for Hillary … We’re done if Hillary becomes President. The country is over. [She’s a] f–king liar.”

(source)