Tag: Democrat

The polling/stats geniuses of FiveThirtyEight took a look at what the polls show in terms of upcoming primary challenges in the Democratic race for the presidential nomination.

As the competition moves into more diverse terrain, Sen. Bernie Sanders looks like he will need to up his game in terms of diversity.

From FiveThirtyEight:

Polling has indicated that Sanders trails among nonwhite voters by nearly 40 percentage points nationally. Although no reliable recent polling is available in Nevada, Clinton leads by 30 percentage points in both of our South Carolina forecasts. In the latest Marist College poll, she’s buoyed by a 74 percent to 17 percent lead among black voters. Sanders must cut into that margin if he wants to have any chance in South Carolina or anywhere in the South.

You could already see how Sanders might have problems in Nevada and South Carolina even as he was crushing Clinton in New Hampshire. Despite winning the state by more than 20 percentage points, the best Sanders could manage among registered Democrats was a tie. His large margin came from registered independents who voted in the Democratic primary. You must be a registered Democrat to vote in the Nevada caucuses, though you can register as one the day of the election. In 2008, 81 percent of Nevada caucus-goers self-identified as Democrats. Just 58 percent of New Hampshire voters on Tuesday thought of themselves as Democrats.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) will launch a campaign Thursday becoming the first challenger to Hillary Clinton for the 2016 Democratic nomination for president.

A member of the U.S. Senate since 2007, Sanders will be a liberal challenge to Clinton, who he sees as being too soft on Wall Street. He describes himself as a “democratic socialist.”

Sanders has been an outspoken critic of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal the Obama administration is negotiating with 11 Pacific countries. Sanders is also a critic of the controversial Citizens United Supreme Court decision, which struck down corporate campaign contribution limits. Sanders has tried to pass a constitutional amendment to overturn the decision.

While Clinton is heavily favored over Sanders, the Vermont senator’s entry in the race will provide a platform for Democrats to criticize Clinton from the left. Sanders’ presence could also highlight a divide between progressive and moderate Democrats.

Before assuming office in the Senate in 2007, Sanders represented Vermont in the U.S. House for 16 years. He is the longest serving independent member of Congress.

According to HuffPost Pollster, which aggregates publicly available polling data, Sanders trails Clinton by 55.1 percentage points. He also trails Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Vice President Joe Biden.