Poll: Harris Puts 4 Sun Belt States ‘Back In Play’

The latest New York Times/Siena poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris has put four battleground states in the Sun Belt “back in play.”

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in close races across Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, crucial swing states that Trump seemed on the verge of running away with just weeks ago, according to new polls from The New York Times and Siena College. https://t.co/NwfnjLKMQv

— The New York Times (@nytimes) August 17, 2024

From the New York Times:

Ms. Harris is now leading Mr. Trump among likely voters in Arizona, 50 percent to 45 percent, and has even edged ahead of Mr. Trump in North Carolina — a state Mr. Trump won four years ago — while narrowing his lead significantly in Georgia and Nevada.

In the new surveys, Mr. Trump is ahead in Georgia 50 percent to 46 percent, and, in Nevada, he has 48 percent compared to 47 percent for Ms. Harris. She has 49 percent of likely voters to Mr. Trump’s 47 percent in North Carolina, the only one of the seven core battleground states that he carried in 2020.

Last week, Times/Siena polling showed that Ms. Harris had pulled ahead of Mr. Trump by a narrow margin in the three northern battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The margin of error for the polls in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia is 4.4 points and 4.2 points for North Carolina. Basically, this means the two candidates are in a statistical dead heat at the moment. But it’s a huge swing from May when the Times/Siena poll showed Trump led President Joe Biden by an average of 10 points among likely voters across Georgia, Nevada and Arizona — three states Biden won narrowly in 2020. Read more at the New York Times. As regular readers know, I only glance at national polls but watch the swing state polls with great interest.

There is a MASSIVE shift in Latino enthusiasm and support for VP Harris, which is a game changer in battlegrounds across the nation. For example, today’s NYT/Siena poll in AZ shows Latino vote 60-37 (+23), the first time any major poll has the Democratic ticket at or above 60%. pic.twitter.com/oWBQIogVmu

— Cristóbal Alex (@CristobalJAlex) August 17, 2024