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Monday Monday: Nate Silver’s Current Presidential Prediction

While Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website constantly updates as new polling info is released, here’s where things stand on this bright, sunny Monday morning.

During a campaign stop on Monday, Republican Donald Trump accused Democrats of creating fake polls in an effort to suppress turnout on behalf of Trump.

Donald Trump accused Democrats on Monday of manufacturing fake polls that show him trailing in the presidential election in order to discourage the GOP nominee’s supporters from voting on Election Day. “Major story that the Dems are making up phony polls in order to suppress the the [sic] Trump,” the Manhattan billionaire wrote on Twitter Monday morning. “We are going to WIN!”

Trump did not specify which polls he believed to be fake, nor did he offer any further clarity on which Democrats or Democratic institutions were concocting the “phony” polls. Widely respected and accepted polls have shown Trump trailing badly in recent days, including some that put Democrat Hillary Clinton up by double-digits.

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Hillary Clinton: Donald Trump Is A “Sore Loser”

As Donald Trump continues to sink in the presidential polls due to misfires on the campaign trail, Democrat Hillary Clinton called Trump’s refusal to accept the outcome of the national election proof that he’s a “sore loser.”

Via Reuters:

“To say you won’t respect the results of the election, that is a direct threat to our democracy,” Clinton told a rally at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. “The peaceful transfer of power is one of the things that makes America America.”

“And look, some people are sore losers, and we just got to keep going,” she added.

In preparation for a loss on election day, Trump has begun making calls of a “rigged election” a regular part of his stump speech even though there’s no proof of any voter fraud.

Elections are run in a decentralized manner by the individual states. Considering the tens of millions of votes across 50 states, the majority of which are run by Republican governors and secretaries of state, it would be virtually impossible for widespread voter fraud to occur.

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Trump Campaign Manager: Dead People Are On The Voter Rolls

https://twitter.com/tech_politic/status/790301368338833409

Speaking to NBC News Meet The Press host Chuck Todd, Donald Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway attempted to argue that voter fraud is real because dead people appear on voter rolls.

Of course, people die every day and the first thing on a deceased family’s mind isn’t to call the county elections clerk and let folks know they expired.

Yes, people die – and their names may appear on the next election’s voter rolls. That doesn’t mean someone is voting in their name.

The stupid. It burns.

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SNL Cold Open: Third And Final Presidential Debate

With the highly praised Tom Hanks standing in as moderator for the highly praised Fox News anchor Chris Wallace, SNL delivered their version of the third and final presidential debate featuring Kate McKinnon’s “Hillary Clinton” and Alec Baldwin’s spot-on “Donald Trump.”

Beginning the segment, Hanks announces, “I’m Chris Wallace and welcome to the third and final presidential debate. Tonight is going to be a lot like the third ‘Lord of the Rings’ movie. You don’t really want to watch, but hey, you’ve come this far.”

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Hillary Clinton Surges To 12 Point Lead In ABC News National Poll

ABC News reports that Democrat Hillary Clinton has surged to a 12 point lead over Republican Donald Trump in the network’s 2016 election tracking poll.

Likely voters by a vast 69-24 percent disapprove of Trump’s response to questions about his treatment of women. After a series of allegations of past sexual misconduct, the poll finds that some women who’d initially given him the benefit of the doubt have since moved away.

See PDF with full results, charts and tables here.

Fifty-nine percent of likely voters, moreover, reject Trump’s suggestion that the election is rigged in Clinton’s favor, and more, 65 percent, disapprove of his refusal to say whether he’d accept a Clinton victory as legitimate. Most strongly disapprove, a relatively rare result.

All told, Clinton leads Trump by 12 percentage points among likely voters, 50 to 38 percent, in the national survey, her highest support and his lowest to date in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls. Gary Johnson has 5 percent support, Jill Stein 2 percent.

Also from the survey results:

• Clinton leads among female voters by 20 points: 55% vs 35%

• Trump lead among white voters has shrunk to only 4 points: 47% vs 43% (Romney won white voters by 20 points in 2012)

• The number of likely Republican voters has dropped by 7 points in recent weeks

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First Day Of Early Voting Goes Gangbusters For Dems

Click image to enlarge

Early voting got off to a bang in Nevada as Democratic party voters far outweighed Republicans.

The Nevada Secretary of State website shows that, at the end of the first day of early voting, 37,309 Democrats showed up while Republicans lagged with only 15,313 at the polls. That would be 52.79% versus 29.6% respectively.

The website only reports the party affiliation of those who show up to vote, so it’s not a perfect indicator of how many votes Clinton or Trump received. But since most folks vote their party, it’s fair to assume it was a good day for the former secretary of state in Nevada.

#ImWithHer

#Forward

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Donald Trump Lies About Michelle Obama Quote

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/790174395985788929

Another day, another lie from Lying Don.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump shared the above little bon mot with his Twitter followers today. Only snag here is First Lady Michelle Obama didn’t say the quote about Hillary Clinton.

If fact it’s taken so far out of text it’s practically in orbit around Pluto.

Here’s the full quote from Michelle Obama, via the Pulitzer Prize-winning fact checking website Politifact, which shows the quote was not about Hillary but actually about children.

“One of the most important things that we need to know about the next president of the United States is, is he somebody that shares our values? Is he somebody that respects family? Is (he) a good and decent person? So our view was that, if you can’t run your own house, you certainly can’t run the White House. So, so we’ve adjusted our schedules to make sure that our girls are first, so while he’s traveling around, I do day trips. That means I get up in the morning, I get the girls ready, I get them off, I go and do trips, I’m home before bedtime. So the girls know that I was gone somewhere, but they don’t care. They just know that I was at home to tuck them in at night, and it keeps them grounded, and, and children, the children in our country have to know that they come first. And our girls do and that’s why we’re doing this. We’re in this race for not just our children, but all of our children.”

Politifact rated Trump’s claim that the quote was about Hillary as “False.”

The website writes, “Trump is wrong to imply that Michelle Obama’s criticism came in an ad her husband ran against Hillary Clinton. Instead, it came from an ad made by a pro-Trump super PAC.”

(h/t JoeMyGod)

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News Round-Up: October 22, 2016

Some news stories you may have missed:

• This Is Us star (formerly of Smallville) Justin Hartley gets wet and wild for a good cause on ELLEN.

• Log Cabin Republicans vote to withhold endorsing Donald Trump for president. What a bold decision two weeks before the election.

• Utah activists sue the state over laws which ban any positive discussion of LGBTs in public schools.

• Donald Trump says he plans to sue all the women who have accused him of sexual assault after the election.

• In case you’re wondering, here’s Nate Silver’s latest numbers crunching of the presidential election.

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Olympian Gus Kenworthy Looks Back On Coming Out

I am gay. Those three words are how I began the caption on this same photo one-year-ago, today. I remember waking up that day, with the most overwhelming sense of emotions. I was excited for a future where I no longer had to mask myself with heteronormative posturing. But then, of course, I felt apprehensive because I didn’t know how people were going to react. I’d already told my immediate family and a few close friends and they all offered nothing but love and support and I decided that even if the rest of the world abandoned me, their support would be enough. However when the day finally came, I was terrified of losing friends, fans and sponsors. What I didn’t anticipate though, was all that I was about to gain. I’ve gained so much over the past year and I am so tremendously thankful for all of it. I’ve started to love myself, a big step for someone who spent their adolescence in self-contempt. I’ve made lifelong friends, fallen in love and felt truer and happier than I ever imagined. I’ve witnessed myself swell with pride while holding my guy’s hand walking down the street; no longer dictated by fear to walk with my hands in my pockets acting like the person I loved was merely a friend, an acquaintance. I got to ski completely unencumbered and ended up having my best competitive season ever because of it. And while competing I got to, finally, acknowledge my boyfriend standing at the bottom of the half-pipe cheering me on; something I regrettably failed to do in my previous 5-year-long closeted relationship. Ultimately, for the first time in my life, I got to feel free – something everybody should feel every day! I can’t thank you all enough for the support you’ve given me over the last year, it truly means the world to me. I get messages every day from guys saying my story has helped them come to terms with themselves or given them the confidence to tell their friends or family that they’re gay. And that, I have to say, has been the highlight of my past year. Of course there will always be nay-sayers but if I’ve helped even one person feel better about themselves then this process, for me, has all been worth it. I love you guys. ❤️💛💚💙💜
A photo posted by gus kenworthy (@guskenworthy) on Oct 22, 2016 at 12:33pm PDT

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Las Vegas: PRIDE Weekend Kicks Off With Pride Parade

You’ve got to love that Las Vegas Pride kicked off PRIDE Weekend with our night-time Pride Parade last night under a delectable October sky.

If you missed the parade (and why would you?), you can watch on CoxCable96 starting on October 31st. How cool is that? We get our Pride Parade televised? Awesome!

Make sure you share your pics from Pride in Las Vegas today and tomorrow by tagging @VegasPride on Twitter.

Lots of social media happening with snaps from all along the parade route. Check out just a sample below.