LGBTQ news and entertainment
L-R Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Jack Black, Pete Buttigieg (screen captures)
The Upshot at the New York Times has adjusted its table of what would happen if the polls were as wrong as they were in 2016.
For the past few months, the table reflected the polling error over the final three weeks. Now, the table reflects the error in the final week of polls in 2016.
From The Upshot:
One reason the polls seemed to miss by so much in 2016: Hillary Clinton had a large lead in the polls conducted two to three weeks before the election. The race tightened in the end, after the third debate and the Comey Letter. There was always a chance that would happen this year, and we wanted to represent that possibility.
Why change now? Well, we’re under a week to go. We’re past the point when the polls showed the race tightening in 2016.
We’re past the third debate. We’re past the Comey Letter. We’re past when the ABC/Post poll showed President Trump ahead nationwide or when Times/Siena and Ann Selzer/Bloomberg showed Mr. Trump ahead in Florida.
All of this is not to say Joe Biden is a lock on winning. Far from it. This is just some consideration on what’s going on in polling today. Follow The Upshot for daily updates here. Whatever you do – make sure you vote! And if possible, do it in person or drop off your ballot in person. 
(graphic via NY Times)
Donald Trump (image via public domain/White House)
This makes no sense, unless you’re out of cash: Trump campaign spending on Minnesota but pulling out of FLORIDA.https://t.co/qeXZKbXfmf
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) October 27, 2020
Update: After I shared this post this morning, Thea McDonald, Deputy National Press Secretary for the Trump Campaign, reached out this response from Tim Murtaugh, Trump 2020 communications director:
“The Bloomberg story is horribly wrong and should never have been written. The campaign, with the RNC coordinated buy, is up with a seven figure buy in Florida on broadcast TV alone. In addition in Florida, we are up with six figures in local cable, six figures in Spanish language, and six figures on radio. Our ad buying week by week in the state has been consistent, and the reporting on this issue demonstrates a clear misunderstanding of how ad buying works (and in some cases a misunderstanding of simple addition and subtraction). Last week we announced a $55 million buy over the final two weeks, which is a 40 percent increase over our previous levels. Just yesterday we added $6 million on top of that for the final week. Including Florida, the Trump campaign is on television in 12 states and also nationally. This is sloppy reporting at the highest level.”
Bloomberg has updated their report adding details and quotes of advertising strategy.
The RNC is picking up some of that slack, buying $4 million in ads beginning last week. It’s now airing an ad in Florida attacking Biden on Medicare, falsely claiming that the Biden health care plan would eliminate private health insurance.
Chris Renfro and Michael Henry (screen capture)
Clint Keller (screen capture)
Some news items you might have missed: • Monday Mancrush: Throwing back to the hottie above from this past summer. It turned out he’s a model used by the t-shirt company, but I still like looking 🙂 • Pink News: Despite warnings of a homophobic boycott, Strictly Come Dancing scored its best ratings for a first live show in years this weekend as millions tuned in to see Nicola Adams and her partner Katya Jones make history by becoming the first competitive same-sex couple to take to the Strictly ballroom floor. • Boy Culture: From this weekend’s all-star streaming concert, I Will Vote, Academy Award-winner Cher chirped this lovely rendition of “Happiness Is Just a Thing Called Joe,” with some specialty lyrics to honor Joe Biden. From the 1943 classic movie, Cabin in the Sky, the Yip Harburg/Harold Arlen tune was nominated for Best Original Song at that year’s Oscars.
• People: Felicity Huffman has completed her full sentence, which included 11 days of jail time, 250 hours of community service, and supervised release for one year. In May, Huffman pleaded guilty to paying disgraced admissions consultant Rick Singer $15,000 to have a proctor change her daughter Sophia’s answers after she took the SAT test. • CBS News: Soldiers and police in Mexico seized an industrial-scale meth and fentanyl lab that was so big it startled investigators. The lab had chemical preparation vats about two stories tall that could process 11,000 pounds of raw material at a time, said Felipe de Jesus Gallo of the federal Attorney General’s Office. • Bear World Magazine: In 2005, I had the absolute pleasure of performing in the Reprise Series’ revival of the musical Applause with the oh-so-talented and woofy Kevin Chamberlin. Fast forward to today, and the 3-time Tony Award nominee is about to appear in the Netflix screen adaptation of the Broadway musical, The Prom, with Meryl Streep, James Corden, Nicole Kidman and Andrew Rannells.
Donald Trump (screen capture)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 900 points lower, or 3.2%, and was headed for its biggest one-day loss since June 11. The S&P 500 slid 2.7% and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 2.5%.
Monday’s decline erased the monthly gains for the Dow industrials.
The decline came amid a record surge in new coronavirus cases in the U.S. The country saw more than 83,000 new infections on both Friday and Saturday after outbreaks in Sun Belt states, surpassing a previous record of roughly 77,300 cases set in July, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
The data also showed the country has reported an average of 68,767 cases per day over the past seven days, a record.
LATEST: The Dow Jones plunges 900+ points https://t.co/hxVPgsQquf pic.twitter.com/zOpRS0Yk1q
— Bloomberg (@business) October 26, 2020
26-year-old James Blight (mug shot)
Residents in a predominantly Black neighborhood in Haines City, Fla., knew something was off on Saturday when they saw a young White man driving a bulldozer on the street. As he made his way down the block, the man began running over every lawn sign in sight supporting Joe Biden.
“This man came onto my property, took the two Joe Biden signs I had in my yard and then came back with a bulldozer to run down my fence,” Adam Burgess, a local homeowner, told Bay News 9.
The man, later identified by police as 26-year-old James Blight, was charged with grand theft auto and trespassing, according to the outlet. The incident in Florida is the latest example of increased tensions days before the election, as yard signs and other public proclamations of support for either presidential candidate have become a point of contention — and have occasionally led to violence.
Former vice Mayor Adam Burgess told Bay News 9: “To come into our community and destroy property – it speaks to the dog whistles that Donald Trump has been putting out his whole campaign. Stand back and stand by and we have guys in bulldozers doing this. What does the president have to say about that?”
“What does the President have to say about this?” Haines City resident upset about destroyed property after @realDonaldTrump supporter tore down his fence to take @JoeBiden sign from his yard. Full story on @BN9 pic.twitter.com/6agYf6E6OZ
— Ashonti Ford TV (@AshontiFordBN9) October 26, 2020
While Donald Trump mangles the English language out at his ego-stroke rallies, Joe Biden is clearly sharp as a tack in this clip from 60 Minutes. Biden: “The same guy who thought the 9/11 attack was a 7/11 attack – he’s talking about dementia? Watch me – see what I’ve done, see what I’m going to do, look at me. Compare our physical and mental acuity – I’m happy to have that comparison.” Stop watching Fox News, stop listening to Rush Limbaugh (who has his own serious health issues), and just watch.
I’ve never seen so many people soooooo happy to show up at the polls and VOTE! Uh-huh, oh yeah, and bounce, bounce, bounce…
A whole mood! The joyful defiance of dancing in line at the polls in a “f*** 2020” Tshirt is what voting in 2020 looks like! Nothing and no one is getting in the way of our joy and our vote! #joyisanactofresistance #joytothepolls @JoyToThePolls #vote #EarlyVoting #TurnUp #Philly pic.twitter.com/2i8gKO1Gv5
— Resistance Revival Chorus (@ResistanceRev) October 25, 2020
Donald Trump (photo: Gage Skidmore/Flickr – CC License)
Wray and Haspel are despised and distrusted almost universally in Trump’s inner circle. He would have fired both already, one official said, if not for the political headaches of acting before Nov. 3.
Why it matters: A win, no matter the margin, will embolden Trump to ax anyone he sees as constraining him from enacting desired policies or going after perceived enemies.
As for Wray, whose expected firing was first reported by the Washington Post, Trump is angry his second FBI chief didn’t launch a formal investigation into Hunter Biden’s foreign business connections — and didn’t purge more officials Trump believes abused power to investigate his 2016 campaign’s ties to Russia.
Trump also grew incensed when Wray testified in September that the FBI has not seen widespread election fraud, including with mail-in ballots.
Trump soured on Esper over the summer when the Defense secretary rebuffed the idea of sending active-duty military into the streets to deal with racial justice protests and distanced himself from the clearing of Lafayette Square for a photo op at St. John’s church.