Biden-Trump Election Likely To Be Decided By 6% In Six States

I don’t report much on national polling for the 2024 presidential election very much because, in truth, the race will probably come down to six swing states. In fact, several political experts say the election will be decided by about 6% of voters in each of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. https://twitter.com/Eugene_Scott/status/1787448999915442525 From Axios:

Those were the battlegrounds disputed by Donald Trump after the 2020 election. And they’re the ’24 toss-ups, as rated by The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

In our private conversations, Democrats are a lot more worried about November than Republicans are. Democrats say the race is winnable. Republicans think they’re winning. The swing-state map is a big reason why.

An April poll of swing states by Bloomberg and Morning Consult found President Biden two points ahead in Michigan, with Trump ahead or statistically tied in every other swing state.

The Cook Report

currently indicates there are 226 electoral votes (Solid Dem and Likely Dem) in the Biden column if the election were held today, meaning he would need to pick up at least 44 electoral votes from the Toss Up column. If Biden were to add Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10), and Pennsylvania (19) – formerly pretty reliable Blue states – that would take Biden right to the necessary 270 electoral votes. If you are so inclined, you can check out the six swing states’ aggregated polls at RealClear Polling. https://twitter.com/JimVandeHei/status/1787425191536005605