A new Reuters/Ipsos poll found a considerable swath of Republicans would not vote for Donald Trump in the upcoming 2024 presidential election if he were convicted of a felony. Trump currently faces four criminal trials related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and his mishandling of classified documents following his departure from the White House. https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1734563027255484580 Via Reuters:
Some 31% of Republican respondents said they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a felony crime by a jury.
The poll showed Trump with a marginal 2-point lead in a head-to-head matchup, 38% to 36%, with 26% of respondents saying they weren’t sure or might vote for someone else.
In the seven states where the election was closest in 2020 — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Michigan — Biden had a 4-point lead among Americans who said they were sure to vote.
https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1734568395536740858 The new survey also indicated Trump has an advantage when it comes to handling the economy (45% to Biden’s 33%). But Biden garnered more support on the issue of abortion (44% to Trump’s 29%). A wrench in the plans: the poll found a third party run by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would siphon more votes from Biden than Trump. With the election a year away, I don’t put too much stock in the predictive nature of polls. But I’ve felt for a long time that Trump’s true hold on the Republican party – even with a felony conviction – is about 60 percent of the party. But you can’t win an election if you lose 30 percent or so of your so-called “base.” We shall see. Stay tuned.
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