Coming out of the two national conventions, Nate Silver of the NY Times/Five Thirty Eight Forecast sees President Obama up 100 electoral points as of September 9, 2012.
NY Times: Nate Silver’s Five Thirty Eight Forecast 9-9-12
Poll: Rep. Todd Akin drops 10 points
Three swing states show President Obama leading
A new poll by the New York Times found that Mr. Obama holds an advantage of 6 percentage points over Mr. Romney in Florida and Ohio. The president is stronger in Pennsylvania, leading by 11 percentage points. The margin of sampling of error is plus or minus three percentage points in each state.
The New York Times, in collaboration with Quinnipiac and CBS News, is tracking the presidential contest in six states through polls over the next three months. In addition to Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, which have a combined 67 electoral votes, surveys will be taken in Colorado, Wisconsin and Virginia, which have 32 electoral votes.
Four years ago, Mr. Obama won all six states. Mr. Romney is campaigning in each state, with his strategists seeing the efforts in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as the most ambitious. Those two states, which have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate over the last two decades, are considered firewalls, and an erosion of support would signal trouble for the president.
Still, more than half of voters in each state also say the administration’s actions are either slowly improving the economy or will, if given more time.
Election 2012: Bain Capital attacks showing effect on Romney’s poll numbers
Over the last two months, even as national polls have shown little movement in the race, something different has been happening in the battleground states. It’s as if there’s a parallel campaign in the states that are likely to determine the presidency, one with its own rhythms and realities.
In those states, President Obama has been pulling ahead. The gaps aren’t huge, but taken together, the numbers strongly suggest that Democrats’ relentless attacks on Mitt Romney’s business record at Bain Capital have been taking a toll.
Quinnipiac University polling last week in the three big classic swing states show the president with narrow but identifiable leads. He’s up four points in Florida, seven in Ohio, and six in Pennsylvania.
Among the things that those states have in common is that voters there have seen an avalanche of early advertising focused on questioning Romney’s business record.
The current electoral map, according to Real Clear Politics, shows when recent polls are taken into account President Obama looks to be at around the 221 mark right now. With Pennsylvania leaning his way, should he win Ohio (18) and Florida (29), that would put President Obama at 266. All he would need would be even the smallest swing state, New Hampshire (4) to win.
2012 Election: Poll averages July1, 2012
Poll: President Obama leads in three important swing states
President Obama holds a narrow lead in three important swing states, according to new polling from NBC News and Marist College. But the polls also indicate Mitt Romney is well within striking distance in each state.
The Marist polls show Obama at 48 percent in all three, while Romney trails by just a few points in each.
Here’s the rundown:
Florida: Obama 48, Romney 44
Ohio: Obama 48, Romney 42
Virginia: Obama 48 , Romney 44
Obama has a significant edge when it comes to favorability. The measure, which is more based on personal attributes than job performance, shows at least half of voters in each state rate the president favorably.
Romney, meanwhile, is in negative territory in Ohio and Virginia, suggesting he has some ground to make up when it comes to his personal brand.
Poll: Real Clear Politics – General Elections Averages 4-17-12
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New CNN/ORC poll: Obama leads Romney 54%-43%
According to a new CNN/ORC poll:
• President Obama leads Romney 54%-43%
• President Obama leads Santorum 55%-42%
• 56% of the public have a favorable view of President Obama as a person
• 37% have a favorable view of Romney
• President Obama has a solid lead among independents
• Only 35 percent of independents now have a favorable view of Romney
• Santorum’ unfavorables outweigh his favorable rating by a 42%-35% margin
• 56% of Americans continue to blame former President George W. Bush and the Republicans for the country’s current economic problems
• 29% blaming Obama and the Democrats.
Poll: President Obama over Romney or Gingrich in NV
From a poll commissioned by the largest (and right-leaning) newspaper in Nevada.
President Obama leads Romney by 6 points, Paul by 20 and beats Gingrich by 22.
Nevada is one of those all-important swing states that will most probably decide the election.
Marist Poll: Obama up in SC and FL
South Carolina hasn’t voted for a Democrat since 1976….