Tag: economy

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Even Before COVID-19 Trump Did No Better On Economy Than Obama

L-R Former President Barack Obama, Donald Trump
Trump and his followers often tout the stock market and unemployment under Trump as “the best economy in the history of the world.” But crunching the numbers from the final three years of the Obama administration and the first three years of Trump’s time in office – which leaves out the devastation of the current pandemic on the US economy – the data shows Trump is not better on economic issues than his predecessor. I recently came across a report from USA Today comparing the economic records of Donald Trump and Barack Obama. From USA Today:

• Employment: According to the U.S. Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the economy created 6,979,000 jobs during Obama’s final three years in office. In Trump’s first three years through this past January, the economy added 6,585,000 jobs to a total of 158,714,000. That’s 394,000 fewer under Trump than under Obama during a similar time span.

• Economic growth: During Obama’s final three years, the economy (inflation-adjusted gross domestic product) grew 2.5% in 2014, 3.1% in 2015 and 1.7% in 2016, or an average of 2.43%, according to figures from the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. Under Trump, the economy grew 2.3% in 2017, 3.0% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019, for an average of 2.5% a year –  just below one-tenth of a percent per year under Trump, who came into office promising to produce an economy that would sprint ahead at a 4% annual pace or even higher.

• Wage growth: During Obama’s final three years in office through January 2017, hourly earnings adjusted for inflation grew 3.3%, according to BLS figures. During Trump’s first three years, inflation-adjusted hourly earnings grew an identical 3.2%. • Stock market: During Trump’s presidency, the S&P 500 climbed 50.4%, from a close of 2,271.31 on Jan. 20, 2017, when he was inaugurated, to 3,4433.12 today. Under Obama, the S&P 500, which was 805.22 on Jan. 20, 2009, grew 182% during his presidency. During his second term, it grew 52% (from 1,492.56 on Jan. 22, 2013).

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News Round-Up: July 9, 2020

Robbie Rodriguez (via Instagram)
Some news items you might have missed: • InstaHunks: So, who noticed openly gay Florida nurse and Crossfit athlete Robbie Rodriguez (above) on NBC’s ‘Titan Games’ recently? Follow the inspiring healthcare provider on Instagram here. • Washington Blade: The African nation of Gabon has decriminalized consensual same-sex sexual relations becoming one of the few countries in sub-Saharan Africa to legalize them. A 2019 law that criminalized same-sex relationships by a maximum penalty of six months in prison and a 5 million Central African CFA franc ($8,561) fine was repealed by both chambers of Parliament and the president of Gabon signed the measure on Tuesday. • Instinct Magazine: Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family) and Broadway producer Justin Mikita are officially fathers. The couple announced that their newborn baby boy, Beckett Mercer, was welcomed into the world on Tuesday, July 7. • CNBC: As the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic continues, 32% of U.S. households have not made their full housing payments for July yet. About 19% of Americans made no housing payment at all during the first week of the month, and 13% paid only a portion of their rent or mortgage. • NY Times: Joy Reid has been announced as the new anchor for the 7 p.m. ET hour on MSNBC. Her new show, “The ReidOut,” will premiere in the slot previously held by Chris Matthews’ “Hardball” on July 20. The new assignment makes Reid one of only a few Black women who have anchored a major American evening news program. • AP News: Tulsa City-County Health Department Director Dr. Bruce Dart said Wednesday Donald Trump’s campaign rally in Tulsa in late June that drew thousands of participants and large protests “likely contributed” to a dramatic surge in new coronavirus cases. Tulsa County reported 261 confirmed new cases on Monday, a one-day record high, and another 206 cases on Tuesday. During the week before the Trump rally, there were 76 cases on Monday and 96 on Tuesday. • LGBTQ Nation: Out actress Javicia Leslie has been cast as the new Batwoman in the CW series, following Ruby Rose’s departure after just one season in the titular role. She will be playing Ryan Wilder, a different character from Rose’s Kate Kane. She’s described as “likable, messy, a little goofy and untamed.” While Ryan is “nothing like Kate Kane,” the new character is also a lesbian. Ruby Rose congratulated her successor on social media.

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6.6 Million New Applications For Unemployment This Week

  From NBC News:

Another wave of 6.6 million American workers filed first-time unemployment claims for the week ending April 4, bringing the cumulative total to an astonishing 16 million over the past three weeks.

For the week ending March 21, 3.3 million people filed new unemployment claims, easily shattering the previous record set in 1982 of 695,000.

Last week, that astounding figure doubled, as 6.6 million people filed claims for the week ending March 28 — a figure that was revised upward to 6.9 million in the new release.

Mark Zandi, a chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, predicts unemployment could reach as high as 15 percent later this spring.

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Stocks Surge On Economic Stimulus News

(image via Pexels)
It’s amazing what can happen when a president ACTS like a president. From CNBC:

Stocks surged Tuesday — rebounding from their worst day in more than three decades — as Wall Street cheered White House plans that could inject $1 trillion into the U.S. economy to cushion the blow of the coronavirus.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,048.79 points higher, or 5.2%, at 21,237.31. It briefly dipped below 20,000 for the first time since February 2017 before rebounding. The S&P 500 was up 6% at 2,529.19 while the Nasdaq Composite gained 6.2% to end the day at 7,334.78.

The Trump administration is weighing a fiscal stimulus package of more than $1 trillion that includes direct payments to Americans, according to a source familiar with the matter. Earlier, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told reporters the government is considering directly sending checks to Americans in the next two weeks. “Americans need cash now,” he said.

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Obama Triggers Trump Over Economic Results

Former President Barack Obama took to Twitter on Monday to commemorate the 11th anniversary of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. The $800 billion stimulus package paved “the way for more than a decade of economic growth and the longest streak of job creation in American history.” But the tweet apparently triggered Donald Trump, who constantly takes credit for the “greatest economy in the history of our country.” Trump frequently mentions the economy as he campaigns in his bid for reelection. A few facts from CNN: The average monthly job growth has declined from 224,000 during Obama’s last three years to 182,000 during Trump’s first three. The unemployment rate has fallen to 3.6% last month from 4.7% in January 2017 as Trump took office. Yet that merely continued the trend of the last six years of Obama’s term. Since Trump assumed the presidency in January 2017, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen by 47%, as of about 3 p.m. ET on Tuesday. During Obama’s second term, the Dow rose 44%.

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Survey: 97 Percent Of CFOs See Economic Downturn In 2020

U.S. economy shrank in Q1 of 2025 due to Trump tariffs

Deloitte’s quarterly survey of nearly 150 chief financial officers shows 97 percent believe that a downturn (recession or slowdown) has already begun or will occur by the end of 2020. At this time last year, 88 percent felt there would be a downturn by December 2020. Today, 43 percent believe consumer spending will be strong in 2020, while last year that number was 54 percent. Only 22 percent say they expect to see strong business spending this year compared with 32 percent who thought spending would be strong in 2020.

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US Manufacturing Drops To Lowest Level Since 2009

(image via Kateryna Babaieva/Pexels)
Axios reports:

The Institute of Supply Management’s index of manufacturing activity released Friday hit its lowest level since the end of the Great Recession in December.

Why it matters: It shows worsening conditions for the U.S. manufacturing sector, which has been in contraction for five straight months and reignites concerns about the trade war’s impact on the economy. Stocks, already in the red after a U.S. airstrike killed a top Iranian general, fell near the lowest levels of the day following the release of the data.

By the numbers: The index came in at 47.2 in December — worse than the 49 economists expected — falling 0.9 points from the prior month’s reading. (Any reading below 50 suggests the manufacturing sector is in contraction.)

Respondents to the survey, which manufacture goods in 18 different industries, noted sluggish demand for products, as well as suppliers passing tariff-related costs on to manufacturers.

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Study: Trump Tariffs Led To Higher Prices & Job Losses

Donald Trump
A new study from the Federal Reserve shows Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports led to higher prices for American consumers and job losses. Trump told Americans his tariffs would boost the economy. From The Hill:

“We find that tariff increases enacted in 2018 are associated with relative reductions in manufacturing employment and relative increases in producer prices,” the report by Fed economists Aaron Flaaen and Justin Pierce reads.

MarketWatch first reported the study, noting that 10 primary industries were hit by retaliatory tariffs and higher prices, including producers of magnetic and optical media, leather goods, aluminum sheet, iron and steel, motor vehicles, household appliances, sawmills, audio and video equipment, pesticide, and computer equipment.

In September of this year, U.S. consumers and businesses paid a record $7.1 billion in tariffs.

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News Round-Up: October 30, 2019

Ramses Principe (image via Instagram)
Some news items you might have missed: • InstaHunks: Ripped AF Ramses Principe (above) is staring down Hump Day like a Boss! • OUT: Despite the beautiful monologue by the father at the end of the coming of age film, Call Me By Your Name, author Andre Aciman says he never intended to imply Elio’s dad was gay. • Twitter: Don’t forget – Game 7 of the World Series takes place tonight. Will the Houston Astros make it their second title in three years, or will the Washington Nationals bring it home for the very first time? You know I love baseball…

• C&C: You may have heard about GoFundMe crowdfunding campaigns, but how about ‘ComeF*ckMe’ fundraising? A Twitter user shared a screen capture of a Grindr chat inviting someone to an orgy, but there was a $50 entrance fee. Turns out the event was to raise money to help the families of two victims of a shooting incident pay funeral costs. #ok… • NPR: New numbers from the Commerce Department show the economy lost steam during the summer and early fall. GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity, grew at an annual rate of just 1.9% during the third quarter. That’s a deceleration from the lackluster second quarter when GDP grew at a 2% pace. • Morning Consult: As the primary season edges closer and closer, the lead many Democratic White House hopefuls held over Donald Trump in hypothetical match-ups is tightening according to Morning Consult polling.
(image via Morning Consult)

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Wall Street Pundits Worry About Impending Recession As Economy Slows

Wall Street experts say increased stock market volatility may be signs of an impending recession as Donald Trump's trade war with China continues to heat up.
Donald Trump

Wall Street experts say increased stock market volatility may be signs of an impending recession as Donald Trump’s trade war with China continues to heat up.

From Politico:

Over just the last few days, economists at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America all warned that Trump’s bitter trade war with China is taking a bigger bite out of economic growth than expected.

The warnings came as stocks suffered another big dip on Monday with the Dow closing off nearly 400 points, or 1.5 percent, putting the blue-chip index at 25,897, over 700 points lower than it was in January of 2018 before Trump’s trade fights began in earnest. Stocks bounced back Tuesday after the Trump administration’s announcement about postponing some tariffs that had been set to take effect next month, continuing a long track record of market volatility tied to trade policy.

The collective wisdom now spreading across Wall Street is that no trade deal will be struck with China before the 2020 election; business investment will continue to sag; and a series of interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve won’t be enough to juice more growth out of an economy now in its tenth year of expansion — the longest stretch in American history.

With economic growth slowing to 2.1 percent in the second quarter, Trump is predictably shifting from crowing about the stock market to blaming the Federal Reserve for not utilizing more interest rate cuts.

Bank of America’s head of U.S. economics Michelle Meyer said in a note to clients that she believes there is a 1-in-3 chance of a recession in the next 12 months.