Tag: 2018 mid-term elections

The New York Times reports that Donald Trump is in denial about the GOP’s prospects in the mid-term elections this fall.

President Trump is privately rejecting the growing consensus among Republican leaders that they may lose the House and possibly the Senate in November, leaving party officials and the president’s advisers nervous that he does not grasp the gravity of the threat they face in the midterm elections.

Congressional and party leaders and even some Trump aides are concerned that the president’s boundless self-assurance about politics will cause him to ignore or undermine their midterm strategy. In battleground states like Arizona, Florida and Nevada, Mr. Trump’s proclivity to be a loose cannon could endanger the Republican incumbents and challengers who are already facing ferocious Democratic headwinds.

When told by several prominent Republicans at a dinner that the House is practically already lost, Trump repeatedly told the politicians “That’s not going to happen.”

As the Times points out, practically every modern president has lost seats in his first midterm election.

Axios shares four points of insight from political analyst Chris Krueger regarding the fall mid-term elections.

Here’s Krueger’s upshot:

1. In the six times the president’s approval numbers were under 50% (Trump’s average is 41%), the average loss was more than 43 seats. Democrats only need to flip 24 seats.

2. Taking retirements, losing state/local tax deductions in new tax law and Trump’s severe unpopularity, California could lose half its Republican delegation.

Also, with Pennsylvania’s new redistricting map, Republicans could lose six seats there.

Those two states alone get the Dems halfway to 24.

3. Krueger points out that suburban voters could be a key part of the fall elections. There are 23 Republicans in districts Hillary Clinton won and most of those are suburban.

4. And finally, just as Obama’s 2008 coalition didn’t come out in droves in the 2010 mid-terms, it’s very possible that Trump voters may not show up without The Donald on the ballot.

All of these are very valid points. But, of course, I get nervous and superstitious.

I want us all to not take much of that to heart and get out and vote like there’s no tomorrow come the fall.