Axios shares four points of insight from political analyst Chris Krueger regarding the fall mid-term elections.
Here’s Krueger’s upshot:
1. In the six times the president’s approval numbers were under 50% (Trump’s average is 41%), the average loss was more than 43 seats. Democrats only need to flip 24 seats.
2. Taking retirements, losing state/local tax deductions in new tax law and Trump’s severe unpopularity, California could lose half its Republican delegation.
Also, with Pennsylvania’s new redistricting map, Republicans could lose six seats there.
Those two states alone get the Dems halfway to 24.
3. Krueger points out that suburban voters could be a key part of the fall elections. There are 23 Republicans in districts Hillary Clinton won and most of those are suburban.
4. And finally, just as Obama’s 2008 coalition didn’t come out in droves in the 2010 mid-terms, it’s very possible that Trump voters may not show up without The Donald on the ballot.
All of these are very valid points. But, of course, I get nervous and superstitious.
I want us all to not take much of that to heart and get out and vote like there’s no tomorrow come the fall.