Tag: 2016

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FiveThirtyEight Looks At The Terrain Going Forward For Clinton, Sanders

The polling/stats geniuses of FiveThirtyEight took a look at what the polls show in terms of upcoming primary challenges in the Democratic race for the presidential nomination.

As the competition moves into more diverse terrain, Sen. Bernie Sanders looks like he will need to up his game in terms of diversity.

From FiveThirtyEight:

Polling has indicated that Sanders trails among nonwhite voters by nearly 40 percentage points nationally. Although no reliable recent polling is available in Nevada, Clinton leads by 30 percentage points in both of our South Carolina forecasts. In the latest Marist College poll, she’s buoyed by a 74 percent to 17 percent lead among black voters. Sanders must cut into that margin if he wants to have any chance in South Carolina or anywhere in the South.

You could already see how Sanders might have problems in Nevada and South Carolina even as he was crushing Clinton in New Hampshire. Despite winning the state by more than 20 percentage points, the best Sanders could manage among registered Democrats was a tie. His large margin came from registered independents who voted in the Democratic primary. You must be a registered Democrat to vote in the Nevada caucuses, though you can register as one the day of the election. In 2008, 81 percent of Nevada caucus-goers self-identified as Democrats. Just 58 percent of New Hampshire voters on Tuesday thought of themselves as Democrats.

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Hysterical Oscars Style “In Memoriam” Of The 2016 Candidates We’ve Lost So Far

Brilliant Oscars-style “In Memoriam” video from Cafe.com dedicated to the GOP presidential candidates lost thus far on the road to the 2016 nomination.

They’re all here: Rick “Frothy Mix” Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Jim Webb, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, Lincoln Chafee, and Martin O’Malley.

Check that tag-line: “Suspended, but not forgotten.”

(h/t JMG)

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Marco Rubio Blames The Media For His Fifth Place Showing In New Hampshire Primary

After finishing a disappointing fifth place in the New Hampshire Republican primary last night, Sen. Marco Rubio blamed the media for his crushing loss.

Appearing on Fox News today, Rubio said that because the media did it’s job and reported on, among other things, his “crash and burn” performance at the GOP debate Saturday night, folks didn’t want to vote for him.

Via Politico:

“What happened is obviously Saturday night the debate went the way it went, and then just the media coverage over the last 72 hours was very negative about it and so forth,” Rubio said Wednesday on “Fox & Friends.” “So the last thing voters heard going into the booth yesterday was, you know, something bad happened Saturday night. And so it made it very difficult for us to get any other message across.”

Rubio was excoriated following Saturday’s debate after Chris Christie called the Florida senator out for his “memorized 25-second speech” — a line Rubio used several times in the debate about how President Barack Obama “knows exactly what he’s doing” and vowed to keep using on the trail despite the harsh criticism.

Many have predicted that last night may be the beginning of the end of Rubio’s career in elective politics. He has stated he does not plan on running for reelection for the U.S. Senate this fall.

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Carly Fiorina Reminds Us She Was Still In The GOP Presidential Race – Until Today

Twitter got all happy about the news. ‘Bye Felecia!

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New Hampshire Primary Results

Good night for Sen. Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary, while Donald Trump crushed over on the Republican side.

Biggest loser of the night has to go to Sen. Marco Rubio who came out of Iowa caucuses with a strong 3rd place showing. But his admittedly weak debate performance on Saturday (just days before the primary in NH) affected his supporters. Rubio eked out a 5th place finish last night.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will announce this afternoon that he’s leaving the race.

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New Hampshire Daily Tracking Poll Shows Marco Rubio And Hillary Clinton Trending Up

The 7News/UMass Lowell New Hampshire tracking poll shows progress for Republican Sen. Marco Rubio and Democratic former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

The daily poll shows Rubio gaining 3 points while front-runner Donald Trump dropped 2 points overnight.

Here’s where the Republicans stand:

Over on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton rises 4 points while Sen. Bernie Sanders drops 3 points.

With five days before the first in the nation primary, it’ll be interesting to see how much ground the underdogs in the Granite State might make up.

Will Trump’s peeps really show up and vote for him? He’s admitted he knew nothing about “ground game” in Iowa – will that change in New Hampshire?

I’ve said before that with Sanders practically in his backyard, and with such a commanding lead, a second place finish by Hillary in single digits would register as an achievement.

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Donald Trump Goes All Sore Loser After Iowa Loss

I think we were all struck by how gracious Donald Trump was Monday night after coming in second in the Iowa Caucuses. I was wondering “who is this guy?”

Good to know Trumpster has reverted back to the guy we all know as he whines on Twitter today that Ted Cruz “stole” votes.

Trump is now calling for a “do over” in Iowa. I’ll let you know how that turns out.

UPDATE: Sen. Ted Cruz fires back…

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Iowa Democratic Party Names Hillary Clinton Winner Of Iowa Caucuses By Slim Margin

The Iowa Democratic Party has announced former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton the winner of the 2016 Iowa Caucuses.

Clinton’s win comes by the slimmest of margins:

“The results tonight are the closest in Iowa Democratic caucus history. Hillary Clinton has been awarded 699.57 state delegate equivalents, Bernie Sanders has been awarded 695.49 state delegate equivalents, Martin O’Malley has been awarded 7.68 state delegate equivalents and uncommitted has been awarded .46 state delegate equivalents. We still have outstanding results in one precinct (Des Moines—42), which is worth 2.28 state delegate equivalents.

Other news outlets also declared Clinton the winner of the Iowa caucuses, including MSNBC, NBC and The Washington Post.

After a poor showing, former Governor of Maryland, Martin O’Malley, announced he is “suspending” his campaign.

The remaining two Democratic candidates move on to New Hampshire now where RealClearPolitics shows Sen. Bernie Sanders with an average of 18 points ahead of Clinton.

Following next week’s voting in New Hampshire the action moves to Nevada where Clinton holds a 19 point lead, and South Carolina where Clinton is 30 points ahead of Sanders.

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Final Poll Before Iowa Caucus: Hillary Clinton +3, Donald Trump +5

The final poll before the Iowa Caucus’s tomorrow shows Hillary Clinton leading her Democratic opponent Sen. Bernie Sanders by a narrow 3 points, while on the Republican side Donald Trump has retaken the lead over Sen. Ted Cruz 28% vs. 23%.

Results from the Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register:

Democrats
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton – 45%
Sen. Bernie Sanders – 42%
Gov. Martin O’Malley – 3%

Interesting to note, 83% of Clinton’s supporters say their mind is made up, while 69% of Sander’s supporters say the same. Twenty-nine percent of those leaning Sander’s way say they could change their minds.

Republicans:
Donald Trump – 28%
Sen. Ted Cruz – 23%
Se. Marco Rubio – 15%
Dr. Ben Carson – 10%
Sen. Rand Paul – 5%
Gov. Chris Christie – 3%
Gov. Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, Gov. Mike Huckabee, Gov. John Kasich and Rick Santorum – 2%