Hillary Clinton Up Over 70% Chance Of Winning The White House

The latest from super-stats guy, Nate Silver at  FiveThirtyEight.com.

Hillary back over 71% probability of winning the race for the White House.

Notable changes in the forecast include Florida, Nevada and North Carolina swinging into the Blue column.

This is only a snapshot of today’s polls, but good news all the same.

Additionally, the latest CNN/ORC poll shows Hillary now leading by 5 points nationally.

From The Hill:

A new CNN/ORC poll finds Hillary Clinton opening up a 5-point lead over Donald Trump since last week’s presidential debate. Clinton leads Trump 47 percent to 42 percent with likely voters in the CNN/ORC survey released Monday. A CNN/ORC poll conducted before the contest found Trump leading her by 2 points, 45 percent to 43 percent.

In the new poll, Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson grabs 7 percent, followed by Green Party presidential nominee Jill Stein with 2 percent. One percent picked no one and 1 percent had no opinion.

Hillary Clinton Asks: “What Kind Of ‘Genius’ Loses $1 Billion In A Single Year?”

On the campaign trail in Ohio today, Democratic presidential candidate brought up the Sunday talk show defense by Donald Trump’s surrogates regarding the weekend revelations of Trump’s 1995 tax return.

“What kind of genius loses a billion dollars in a single year?” Clinton asked.

Watch below.

Olivia Newton-John, Amy Sky & Beth Nielsen Chapman Chat On “Liv On”

Olivia Newton-John, Beth Nielsen Chapman and Amy Sky chat with Jenny McCarthy about their new album, LIV ON.

The unique project brings the three acclaimed singer/songwriters together to explore and move through grief – a subject rarely addressed by popular music.

I’ve heard the album and it’s quite fabulous. Trading lead vocals, harmonizing beautifully, the trio delivers a collection of songs that I think many people facing loss will be able to connect to on a deeply emotional level.

Via press release:

This very special collection of songs will help lift the hearts of others going through their own hardship, whatever the cause.

From the uplifting “Stone In My Pocket” to the poignant, “My Heart Goes Out To You,” the songs on the “LIV ON” CD take the listener on a journey of remembrance, toward one of inspiration and hope.

LIV ON also brings listeners epic songs such as Beth Nielsen Chapman’s “Sand and Water” which was created following the passing of her husband.

As well, the three mega-stars have created several brand new songs, including the title track, “Live On,” which born of their own exploration into the pain of loss, the growth that follows and eventually, the journey toward renewed joy.

Did Marla Maples Leak Donald Trump’s 1995 Tax Return?

Marla Maples

As political junkies and pundits wonder who might have leaked Donald Trump’s 1995 tax return to the New York Times, some folks have started looking in the direction of Trump wife number two, Marla Maples.

Since she was married to the Donald at that time, her name is on the joint return, and state laws in New York and Connecticut allow taxpayers to release returns to outside parties with only one of the filers signatures.

Medium has more details:

It’s also unlikely that she would be violating her confidentiality agreement with Mr. Trump by leaking these returns. I spoke to two lawyers that specialize in family law and both told me that they have never seen a restriction around tax returns in a prenup or settlement agreement. They have seen such restrictions when it comes to financial statements, investment records but it would be hard for Mr. Trump to demand that Ms. Maples own tax information be kept private. If Ms. Maples did indeed leak these returns, it would also absolve the Times of any criminal or civil penalties.

Despite the fact that the Trump campaign said that the Times is “an extension of the Clinton campaign”, they’re not (after all they broke the email server story in March of 2015). The Times had these returns for ten days and took their reporting on these returns seriously — even going so far as hiring tax experts to analyze the returns. They sought a comment from the Trump campaign, they spoke to the accountant who prepared and signed the returns.

So it would be highly unusual for them to not contact Ms. Maples about the tax returns given that her name is on all of the returns and her signature is on the New Jersey return. Yet the Times, in their story, does not indicate that they contacted Ms. Maples. Even if she didn’t return their calls or emails, they would still indicate that they reached out to her and had not heard back.

(h/t JoeMyGod)

New Politico Poll: Hillary Leads Donald +6

After what was arguably Republican Donald Trump’s worst week in his run for the White House, Democrat Hillary Clinton has opened up a 6 point lead over Trump in the latest POLITICO/Morning Consult poll of likely voters.

With only five weeks left in the campaign, Clinton leads 42-36 in a four way race that includes Libertarian Gary Johnson (9%) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein (2%). This represents seven point swing for the Trumpster – heading into the first presidential debate, he was leading by one point in the same poll.

In a head-to-head race between Trump and Clinton, Clinton leads by seven points, 46 percent to 39 percent.

Part of the dramatic change appears due to Trump’s attacks on former Miss Universe, Alicia Machado. Of those polled, 74% said they had heard about the flap between the billionaire and the beauty.

Fifty-five percent of women said it gives them a less favorable view of Trump, and 43 percent of voters said the incident makes them less likely to support Trump.

Sunday Slow-Down: Mary Chapin Carpenter “Stones In The Road”

I’m such a huge Mary Chapin Carpenter fan. I really felt like sharing some MCC with you folks today.

In the mid-90s I began developing a stage musical of her catalogue. I obtained the rights, but timing was never in sync with my career at the time. I still hope to produce it some day.

So many gorgeous melodies matched with thoughtful lyrics packed with insight.

When you think about it, “Stones in the Road” and it’s commentary of changing political/philosophical views is really at home on The Randy Report.

Happy Sunday, y’all.

When Donald Trump Criticized President Obama For “Only” Paying 20.5% Tax Rate

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/190866856624668672

In the aftermath of the New York Times’ bombshell article showing Donald Trump probably paid no personal income taxes for 18 years, it’s amusing to take a walk down Twitter Lane with the Trumpster.

Remember that time he criticized President Obama for “only” paying a 20.5% effective tax rate?

Now we find out Trump pays a 0% income tax rate. That means 0% for our military, 0% for our veterans, 0% for roads, bridges and schools.

And yet, Trump will rant about the poor status of our infrastructure and airports, etc.

Things that make you go “hmm….”