New polling in six battleground states won by Donald Trump in 2016 (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina) offers some disconcerting news for the Trump campaign.
The surveys, conducted by the New York Times/Siena College, show former Vice President Joe Biden leading in all six states including double-digit leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
The new polling shows:
• Biden in the lead in Michigan by 11 points (47-36). Trump won there in 2016 by less than one point.
• Wisconsin, where Trump also won by less than 1% nearly four years ago, indicates Biden holds an 11 point lead as well (49-38)
• Another ‘less than 1 percent win’ state, Pennsylvania, appears to favor Biden by ten points (50-40)
• Florida, where Trump eked out a 1 point win in 2016, shows Biden leading by 6 points (47-41)
• Arizona, traditionally a Republican enclave where Trump won by 4 points during the last election, indicates Biden ahead of Trump by 7 points (48-41)
• And North Carolina, another 4 point victory for Trump in 2016, shows Biden beating Trump by 9 points (49-40)
Note: while the break-down of Democrats/Republicans/Independents polled was close in each swing state, there were more Republicans surveyed in Florida and Wisconsin. So, any claims of ‘weighting’ the polls in favor of Biden wouldn’t hold water.
If Biden were to win all six of those states and hold onto those carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016, he would win the presidency with by least 333 electoral votes, far more than the 270 needed, if he won all six of the states surveyed and held those won by Hillary Clinton four years ago.
Scoring a win in any three of the six states listed above, however, would be enough to put him over the 270 point threshold to win the White House.
Biden currently leads in virtually all national polls by an average of 9.4 points. A separate New York Times/Siena College national poll released this week showed Biden with a 14 point lead nationally (50-36).
But as I’ve written many times, national polls don’t really tell the tale of an election that’s predicated on the Electoral College.
Keep watching the swing state polling. A margin of plus/minus two or three points is close to a draw, but 6+ shows a clear advantage.