Polls: Biden Leads In Six Vital Battleground States

L-R President Donald Trump, former Vice President Joe Biden

New polling in six battleground states won by Donald Trump in 2016 (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina) offers some disconcerting news for the Trump campaign.

The surveys, conducted by the New York Times/Siena College, show former Vice President Joe Biden leading in all six states including double-digit leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

The new polling shows:

• Biden in the lead in Michigan by 11 points (47-36). Trump won there in 2016 by less than one point.

• Wisconsin, where Trump also won by less than 1% nearly four years ago, indicates Biden holds an 11 point lead as well (49-38)

• Another ‘less than 1 percent win’ state, Pennsylvania, appears to favor Biden by ten points (50-40)

• Florida, where Trump eked out a 1 point win in 2016, shows Biden leading by 6 points (47-41)

• Arizona, traditionally a Republican enclave where Trump won by 4 points during the last election, indicates Biden ahead of Trump by 7 points (48-41)

• And North Carolina, another 4 point victory for Trump in 2016, shows Biden beating Trump by 9 points (49-40)

Note: while the break-down of Democrats/Republicans/Independents polled was close in each swing state, there were more Republicans surveyed in Florida and Wisconsin. So, any claims of ‘weighting’ the polls in favor of Biden wouldn’t hold water.

If Biden were to win all six of those states and hold onto those carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016, he would win the presidency with by least 333 electoral votes, far more than the 270 needed, if he won all six of the states surveyed and held those won by Hillary Clinton four years ago.

Scoring a win in any three of the six states listed above, however, would be enough to put him over the 270 point threshold to win the White House.

Biden currently leads in virtually all national polls by an average of 9.4 points. A separate New York Times/Siena College national poll released this week showed Biden with a 14 point lead nationally (50-36).

But as I’ve written many times, national polls don’t really tell the tale of an election that’s predicated on the Electoral College.

Keep watching the swing state polling. A margin of plus/minus two or three points is close to a draw, but 6+ shows a clear advantage.

Poll: Biden Leads Trump By 16 In Battleground State Michigan

L-R President Donald Trump, former Vice President Joe Biden

The Detroit Free Press reports the latest polling in the vital swing state of Michigan has some bad news for Donald Trump.

Two weeks ago, EPIC-MRA of Lansing, a polling firm that does work for the Free Press, released a survey showing former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, leading Trump 53%-41% in Michigan, a 12-point edge.

But a second poll, started on May 31, a day after the first poll began, and concluded a day later than the first poll, on June 4, showed Biden leading Trump 55%-39% in Michigan, a 16-point margin.

The survey had a margin of error of plus/minus 4 points.

The new poll also showed:

•  70% of those surveyed believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. The percentage who believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction fell from 30% to 22%.

• 61% of those surveyed hold a negative view of Trump. The percentage of those with a positive view fell from 42% to 38%.

• 51% said they would vote to replace Trump in November, while those who said they plan to vote to reelect him fell from 38% to 33%.

Trump Campaign Threatens TV Stations For Airing Anti-Trump Ad

Donald Trump’s re-election campaign has threatened TV stations they could lose their broadcast licenses for airing an ad criticizing how the Donald has handled the ongoing COVID-19 threat.

From Bloomberg News:

President Donald Trump’s campaign, in a letter on Wednesday, told stations in five battleground states to stop showing the ad from Priorities USA, a political action committee that supports Democratic candidate Joe Biden.

Failure to remove the ad “could put your station’s license in jeopardy” before the Federal Communications Commission, the campaign said in the letter. “Your station has an obligation to cease and desist from airing it immediately to comply with FCC licensing requirements.”

The letter was sent to stations in presidential battleground/swing states – Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – which are considered vital to Trump’s reelection.

The spot, from anti-Trump PAC Priorities USA, shows a graphic of the increasing cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. from January 20 to March 22. The audio uses sound bites of Trump downplaying the seriousness of the coronavirus threat at the time.

“The coronavirus,” Trump says at the beginning, “this is their new hoax.”

This is the updated version of the spot released today:

If Trump Shot Someone Would You Vote For Him: “Why Did He Shoot Him?”

Donald Trump supporter Crystal

Alisyn Camerota, from CNN’s New Day, chatted with a panel of Pennsylvania voters from swing districts about how Donald Trump is handling the presidency and got some rather stunning responses.

Some called Trump’s time in the Oval Office “embarrassing” while others declared he is “fantabulous!”

A woman named Crystal, who is still clearly pro-Trump, was asked: “Crystal, is there anything he could do that would make you not vote for him?”

Crystal replied “No.”

Bringing up the now infamous hypothetical scenario stated by Trump during the 2016 election, Camerota queried, “If he shot someone on 5th avenue, would you vote for him?”

Crystal responded asking with a skeptical tone, “Yeah, why did he shoot him?”

The Trump voters were also asked about whether pressuring foreign countries to investigate political opponents was appropriate and the ongoing impeachment inquiry.

Polls: Momentum Moving Clinton’s Way In Vital Swing States FL, OH, PA

New polling out this morning shows the current momentum moving in Democrat Hillary Clinton’s way, especially in regard to vital swing states Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

In each state, you can see the majority of recent polling is good news for Clinton and not so much for Republican Donald Trump.

In Florida, the newest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll indicates Clinton has a 3 point lead over Trump.

The results of the latest CBS News/YouGov polls give Clinton a 4 point lead in Ohio and 8 point advantage in Pennsylvania.

You can click the images to enlarge.

New Poll: Clinton Leading In Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado

More good news for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton as NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls show her leading in the vital swing states of Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado:

In the key battleground of Florida, which President Obama won in 2008 and 2012, Clinton is ahead of Trump by five points among registered voters, 44 percent to 39 percent, with the rest saying neither, other or they’re undecided.

In North Carolina, which Obama won in 2008 but lost in 2012, the former secretary of state has a nine-point advantage over Trump, 48 percent to 39 percent.

In Virginia, Clinton’s lead is 13 points, 46 percent to 33 percent.

And in Colorado, the Democrat is ahead by a whopping 14 points, 46 percent to 32 percent.

Earlier results from NBC News polls showed Clinton ahead in swing states Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Ed Demaria, of NBC News, points out that if you just add up the states where Clinton has a lead of 9 points or more, she’s already past the required 270 electoral votes to win the White House. That’s not counting states like Michigan or Wisconsin which are traditionally blue states; or Nevada or Florida with heavy concentrations of Hispanic voters which are breaking decidedly for Clinton.

Hillary Clinton Up By Double-Digits In Crucial Swing States

Democratic White House hopeful Hillary Clinton gets more good news in the polls from two swing states, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.

Among likely voters in Pennsylvania, Hillary tops Donald Trump by 11 points 49%/38% according to the latest Franklin and Marshall poll.

Most pundits on both sides of the political spectrum say Trump really needs the Keystone State to win the presidency.

In New Hampshire, the new WBUR poll gives the former Secretary of State a whopping 17 point lead on the Trumpster – 51% to 34%.

Gallup poll: President Obama leads Romney in swing states

In the first Gallup Swing States Poll since Romney became the presumptive GOP nominee, President Obama leads Romney 47%-45%.

Romney also seems to lag in the enthusiasm department: among who see themselves as “very” or “extremely” enthusiastic for their candidate, President Obama leads Romney 55%-46%.

The enthusiasm gap could be significant on election day in terms of “getting out the vote.”

We’ll see…