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Here's what the map might look like in an election held today. Trump's Rust Belt strength would help him keep MO, IN pic.twitter.com/OYueYvWFpG— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 24, 2016
Georgia’s 16 electoral votes would be my one quibble – the rest is possible.
I’m not hating this.
Wonder statistician Nate Silver says Republican chances of taking over the Senate are now 68.5% – the highest they’ve been all year.
Silver’s predictions on the top ten US Senate races:
1. Montana (99.8 percent chance of a GOP win)
2. South Dakota (99 percent)
3. West Virginia (98 percent)
4. Arkansas (90 percent chance)
5. Louisiana (77 percent chance)
6. Colorado (75 percent chance)
7. Iowa (67 percent chance)
8. Alaska (67 percent chance)
9. North Carolina (32 percent chance)
10. New Hampshire (17 percent chance)
Due to his incredibly accurate forecast of the 2012 election, “Drunk Nate Silver” has become a Twitter phenomenon. Dan Levitan’s tweet set off the meme riot: “Drunk Nate Silver is riding the subway, telling strangers the day they will die”
Second City created this hilarious video riffing on Nate’s “gift” to see into the future.
For months, Randy Report readers have watched me post the NY Times’ Nate Silver’s forecast for the election. Now I can show you why he’s the numbers guy to follow.
Here is Nate Silver’s final forecast prediction of the election:
And here’s how it all actually played out. Pretty amazing.
Give the guy a pat on the back. Nate knows his stuff. Remember you can find him on the NY Times website.
New York Times statistician Nate Silver is so confident in President Obama’s electoral victory that he’s betting former GOP Congressman and current MSNBC host Joe Scarborough $1,000 that the commander-in-chief will have a second term.
The above tweet comes after Silver found press and pundits wondering whether he would be a “one-term celebrity” if Obama loses. Silver’s career took off dramatically after he used his skills, once reserved for sports games to correctly call the 2008 election, save for one state.
Here’s the stats from Nate Silver’s New York Times blog – FiveThirtyEight – for today, showing President Obama surging in polls released yesterday.
Nate Silver, of the FiveThirtyEight blog for the NY Times, sees numbers slowly trending in President Obama’s direction. The President has crept back up to a projected 71% chance of re-election.
Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight, sees the Presidential campaign tightening clearly due to the first Obama/Romney debate.
But while we’re seeing tightening, Nate still sees the President at a 75% chance of winning. Should the Obama campaign stop the bleeding from the first debate, beginning with VP Joe Biden giving a strong performance at the VP debate this Thursday, things could definitely settle.
Everyone knew this would be a tight race. It’s basically where it was months ago.
What will matter will be swing states, like Ohio.
President Obama leads in Ohio 51%-47% according to a poll released Tuesday by CNN.
Watch Ohio.
From Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog. FiveThirtyEight provides forecasts of upcoming presidential, Congressional and gubernatorial elections through the use of its proprietary prediction models.
Nate Silver correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in the 2008 election, and all 35 Senate races.
(source)
Coming out of the two national conventions, Nate Silver of the NY Times/Five Thirty Eight Forecast sees President Obama up 100 electoral points as of September 9, 2012.