Nate Silver: Voters Shouldn’t Become Complacent Because ‘To Many Unknowns’

Why shouldn’t voters become complacent reading about “this poll” or “that poll” leading up to the 2020 presidential election?

Too many unknowns.

Statistician Nate Silver: “A lot could change in the next 100 days. Things could get worse for the president. But a turnaround in the COVID situation in the fall could make the election more competitive.”

Nate Silver: Democrats Have 5 In 6 Chance Of Taking The House

Super-stats guy Nate Silver currently shows the Democrats have a 5 in 6 chance of taking control of the House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm elections.

According to his stats right now, his prediction is for an average gain of 38 seats in the House by Dems.

Conversely, Silver predicts the Republicans have a 5 in 6 chance of keeping control of the Senate.

Click over to Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com for updated info as we head into the midterms.

Monday Monday: Nate Silver’s Current Presidential Prediction

While Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website constantly updates as new polling info is released, here’s where things stand on this bright, sunny Monday morning.

During a campaign stop on Monday, Republican Donald Trump accused Democrats of creating fake polls in an effort to suppress turnout on behalf of Trump.

Donald Trump accused Democrats on Monday of manufacturing fake polls that show him trailing in the presidential election in order to discourage the GOP nominee’s supporters from voting on Election Day. “Major story that the Dems are making up phony polls in order to suppress the the [sic] Trump,” the Manhattan billionaire wrote on Twitter Monday morning. “We are going to WIN!”

Trump did not specify which polls he believed to be fake, nor did he offer any further clarity on which Democrats or Democratic institutions were concocting the “phony” polls. Widely respected and accepted polls have shown Trump trailing badly in recent days, including some that put Democrat Hillary Clinton up by double-digits.

News Round-Up: October 22, 2016

Some news stories you may have missed:

This Is Us star (formerly of Smallville) Justin Hartley gets wet and wild for a good cause on ELLEN.

• Log Cabin Republicans vote to withhold endorsing Donald Trump for president. What a bold decision two weeks before the election.

• Utah activists sue the state over laws which ban any positive discussion of LGBTs in public schools.

• Donald Trump says he plans to sue all the women who have accused him of sexual assault after the election.

• In case you’re wondering, here’s Nate Silver’s latest numbers crunching of the presidential election.

Super-Stats Guy Nate Silver: Hillary Clinton Has 80% Chance Of Winning Presidency

Super statistician Nate Silver, who predicted 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 presidential race and 50 out of 50 in 2012, has launched his 2016 Election Forecast page.

The page takes into account all the recent polls in an effort to track where the race for the White House is on any given day. There are three models that crunch the numbers – Polls Only, Polls Plus (which takes into account all polls plus economic conditions and historical data), and Now-Cast (which discerns what the outcome would be if the election were held today).

You can bookmark this and check every now and then to get, in my opinion, one of the best indications of the state of the presidential race.

Super-Statistician Nate Silver Predicts Crushing Win By Hillary Clinton

Super-stats guy Nate Silver tweeted out this prediction of the general election (if the voting were held today) predicting a crushing defeat for Donald Trump.

You need 270 electoral votes to win the White House.

Nate Silver predicted 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election.

In 2012, Silver predicted all 50 states in the presidential election.

I’m not nearly the genius Silver is but I’m not so bullish on Georgia and North Carolina.

That being said, Hillary would still win big even without those two states. I do think she will win handily.

We shall see how this all plays out…