Why shouldn’t voters become complacent reading about “this poll” or “that poll” leading up to the 2020 presidential election?
Too many unknowns.
Statistician Nate Silver: “A lot could change in the next 100 days. Things could get worse for the president. But a turnaround in the COVID situation in the fall could make the election more competitive.”
.@NateSilver538 says “I do not buy that Trump’s fate is sealed” from COVID.
Donald Trump accused Democrats on Monday of manufacturing fake polls that show him trailing in the presidential election in order to discourage the GOP nominee’s supporters from voting on Election Day. “Major story that the Dems are making up phony polls in order to suppress the the [sic] Trump,” the Manhattan billionaire wrote on Twitter Monday morning. “We are going to WIN!”
Trump did not specify which polls he believed to be fake, nor did he offer any further clarity on which Democrats or Democratic institutions were concocting the “phony” polls. Widely respected and accepted polls have shown Trump trailing badly in recent days, including some that put Democrat Hillary Clinton up by double-digits.
Of course, the election is constantly fluid. But super-stats guy Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website posts that, as of this hour, Democrat Hillary Clinton has an 84% chance of winning the race to the White House.
Super statistician Nate Silver, who predicted 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 presidential race and 50 out of 50 in 2012, has launched his 2016 Election Forecast page.
The page takes into account all the recent polls in an effort to track where the race for the White House is on any given day. There are three models that crunch the numbers – Polls Only, Polls Plus (which takes into account all polls plus economic conditions and historical data), and Now-Cast (which discerns what the outcome would be if the election were held today).
You can bookmark this and check every now and then to get, in my opinion, one of the best indications of the state of the presidential race.