Nate Silver: Democrats Have 5 In 6 Chance Of Taking The House

Super-stats guy Nate Silver currently shows the Democrats have a 5 in 6 chance of taking control of the House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm elections.

According to his stats right now, his prediction is for an average gain of 38 seats in the House by Dems.

Conversely, Silver predicts the Republicans have a 5 in 6 chance of keeping control of the Senate.

Click over to Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com for updated info as we head into the midterms.

News Round-Up: October 22, 2018

(image via Instagram)

Some news items you might have missed:

Fitness model and InstaHunk Dan Tai (above) asked his fans if they vote legs or abs…? I’m gonna have to call this a tie, right?

• The Houston Public Library has been sued over a city-sponsored Drag Queen Story Hour by haters who say the event violates their ‘religious freedoms.’  Several similar events have taken place across the nation in an effort to promote literacy.

• Donald Trump is reportedly distancing himself from Republicans possibly losing the House after the midterm elections telling friends privately, “These are their elections … and if they screw it up, it’s not my fault.”

• Scientists have invented a ‘self-lubricating’ condom. The surface contains polymers that capture moisture from water and bodily fluids, trapping liquids on the condom for a consistently slippery feel.

• Some states are reporting higher than usual early voting in the midterm elections with Democrats outpacing Republicans which could signal a “blue wave.” Las Vegas reported the first day turnout was triple that of the last midterm elections.

• Upcoming pop recording artist, LIVVIA, recently released her first official single, “Damn,” and has already garnered almost half a million views on YouTube in only two weeks.

In addition to creating some hooky pop music, LIVVIA also put in the time and effort to graduate this past Spring from the prestigious University of California, Berkeley with a degree in Economics.

Smart and talented – there you go.

“Damn” debuted on the Top 20 of Spotify’s New Music Friday & Apple Music’s A-List Pop. Check it out below.

Voter Enthusiasm Way Up For 2018 Midterm Elections

Three weeks before the 2018 midterm elections, voter enthusiasm is on the rise after hitting its lowest level in half a century in 2014.

A new poll by The Washington Post/ABC News shows 77% of registered voters say they are certain to vote in the midterms versus 65% in 2014.

From The Washington Post:

Enthusiasm is up across almost all demographic groups, but the increases are greater among younger adults, nonwhite voters and those who say they favor Democrats for the House.

Certainty to vote is up 32 points among women younger than 40, compared with 2014. Among men and women ages 18 to 29, it has risen 17 points.

Among nonwhite registered voters, 72 percent are now certain to vote, up from 48 percent in Post-ABC polling in October 2014.

White men without college degrees represent the one heavily Republican group whose certainty to vote is lower than average and has increased less than other groups since 2014. In contrast, white women with college degrees are up 15 points to 88 percent. For white women without degrees, the figure is up 12 points.

Among voters who prefer Democratic candidates for the House, 81 percent say they are certain to vote, up from 60 percent in 2014.

Among those who support Republican candidates for the House, enthusiasm now stands at 76 percent, compared with 73 percent in October 2014.

(graphic via Washington Post)

Polls: Democrats Lead By 10 Points In Latest Generic Ballot Survey

The latest polling from Morning Consult shows Democrats have now opened up a 10-point lead on the generic ballot with less than a month before the midterm elections.

The survey shows 48% of voters prefer a Democratic candidate versus 38% saying they prefer a Republican.

That’s the highest approval for Democrats in this election cycle’s polling by Morning Consult going back to March of 2017.

Additionally, a new CNN poll shows likely voters favor the Democratic Party’s candidate for Congress 54% to 41% over the GOP candidate.