 |
| Click to view larger |
Check out the green line for Gingrich. Quite the nose dive there…
Now Ron Paul on top with Mitt Romney right behind.
Poll: Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus
Poll: Newt Gingrich in free fall in Iowa
Newt Gingrich’s campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa. He’s at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.
Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there’s been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47).
Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich’s image as being a strong conservative – now only 36% of voters believe that he has ‘strong principles,’ while 43% think he does not.
Ron Paul’s ascendancy is a sign that perhaps campaigns do matter at least a little, in a year where there has been a lot of discussion about whether they still do in Iowa. 22% of voters think he’s run the best campaign in the state compared to only 8% for Gingrich and 5% for Romney. The only other candidate to hit double digits on that question is Bachmann at 19%. Paul also leads Romney 26-5 (with Gingrich at 13%) with the 22% of voters who say it’s ‘very important’ that a candidate spends a lot of time in Iowa. Finally Paul leads Romney 29-19 among the 26% of likely voters who have seen one of the candidates in person.
If this continues, watch for Gingrich’s lead in other early states to evaporate too.
Des Moines Register endorses Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney has received the Des Moines Register’s endorsement for the Iowa Caucus.
While enumerating the qualities the editorial board felt made Romney deserving of their support they said, in part:
Mitt Romney is making his second bid for Iowans’ support after an unsuccessful run in 2008. We did not endorse him then, but this is a different field, and he has matured as a candidate. Rebuilding the economy is the nation’s top priority, and Romney makes the best case among the Republicans that he could do that.
Romney is accused of being a “flip-flopper.” He has evolved from one-time independent to moderate Republican in liberal Massachusetts to proud conservative today. He does not deny changing his position on some issues, but he will say he has made mistakes and has learned from them. Though Romney has tended to adapt some positions to different times and places, he is hardly unique. It should be possible for a politician to say, “I was wrong, and I have changed my mind.”
His record of ignoring partisan labels to pass important legislation when he was governor of Massachusetts suggests he is capable to making that happen.
For those reasons, Mitt Romney deserves the support of his party in the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses. If he is the GOP nominee, the nation would have a clear choice in November 2012.
In considering the other current candidates, the editors wrote:
Michele Bachmann: An impressive fireball who can absorb and regurgitate tons of information, even if some of it turns out to be inaccurate.
Newt Gingrich: Between the books he’s read and the books he’s written, Gingrich juggles endless ideas, but he has yet to make the case he could focus his attention on the important ones.
Ron Paul: A well-schooled contrarian who shouldn’t be written off as a nut, even if some of his ideas are nutty.
Rick Perry: After some debate stumbles, he asks voters to take a second look, but it may take more than that.
Rick Santorum: He’d use the presidential bully pulpit to be the nation’s minister-in-chief.
We’ll see on January 3, 2012, if Iowa agrees with the Des Moines Register.
New Interview with Zach Wahls of Iowa
Many Iowans ambivalent on same-sex marriage
From the Des Moines Register: While there are certainly strong voiced sides on the issue of marriage equality in Iowa, a new poll shows there’s also a lot of ambivalence.
In a poll conducted Feb.13-16, 37% of those polled opposed the court ruling that gives gay and lesbians the right to marry, while 32% support it – but 30% don’t care one way or the other.
On a question asking if there were a vote for a constitutional ban on same sex marriage, 38% would vote against such a ban, 35% would vote for it and 25% wouldn’t vote at all.
With the focus of the argument being taken up by the loudest voices, there is a large middle ground of Iowans who don’t find the issue compelling or worthy of the “front and center” position it seems to have taken in political discourse in Iowa.
Nick Palencsar, a 30-year-old Davenport man, is engaged to a woman and ambivalent on same-sex marriage. “It’s not my issue, and I don’t feel like my input is all that valid for that reason,” Palencsar said. “If I had to make choice, I’d probably vote against the ban.”
Aaron Lea, a self-employed painter in Des Moines with a wife and a child, says he voted against retaining the three Iowa Supreme Court judges (who voted to allow marriage equality) because he doesn’t believe in lifetime appointments, not because of their position on gay marriage. He says he wouldn’t vote on a constitutional amendment that forbids such unions. “This is so low on the priority list, it shouldn’t even be allowed on the Senate floor.” After discussing the matter for about 15 minutes, Lea said: “This is the most time I’ve spent thinking about gay marriage. Ever.”
With a large block of voters having little or no interest in either side, it would seem the issue doesn’t have much momentum in terms of repeal.
Zach Wahls from Iowa on ELLEN
How do you not beam watching this guy? His moms obviously did an amazing job raising a bright, articulate and clear-headed young man. THIS is the America I look to for our future. Watching this really makes me happy.
Grandmother in Iowa supports Marriage Equality
How do you not love her? Straight forward and knows just what she thinks. I love people like this grandmother. This is the best part of America.
Zach Wahls – a new American hero
Prepared to be knocked out by Zach Wahls, a 19 year old University of Iowa student.
Zach spoke at the public forum debating the House Joint Resolution 6, which would strip away marriage equality in Iowa. Zach clearly makes his two moms proud. America should be proud to see someone speak so clearly, confidently and securely about who he is, who his family is and what a family really is.
I’m really proud to post this. Remember the name Zach Wahls. We all should.
Now sit back, watch and listen for 3 minutes. THIS is what the future of America can look like. Congratulations to Zach’s moms. Good job.
Voices raised in Iowa over proposal to take away marriage equality
The Iowa State House was packed by hundreds of people who showed up to express their opinions on House Joint Resolution 6 which proposes an amendment to the Iowa State Constitution to overturn marriage equality in the state. The proposed amendment would specify marriage between one man and one woman as the only legal union that is valid or recognized in the state. Civil unions and domestic partnerships would be banned. In 2009, a unanimous decision by the Iowa Supreme Court declared Iowa’s laws limiting marriage rights to opposite-sex couples unconstitutional. Now, almost two years later, legislators are attempting to put marriage equality rights on the ballot. The Resolution passed out of the House Judiciary Committee by a vote of 13-8. While it is expected to pass in the House vote, the state Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal has vowed to block any vote on an amendment that would ban same-sex marriage. To make it to the ballot box, the issue must pass in two consecutive legislatures. Click here for more from The Iowa Independent. UPDATE: The Iowa House today, by a vote of 62-37, passed House Joint Resolution 6 that would deny any form of legal recognition for gay couples. The amendment seeks to prohibit not only the freedom to marry for gay couples, but also civil unions or domestic partnerships. More info here at One Iowa.