New Poll Shows Hillary Clinton & Bernie Sanders In Dead Heat For Nevada Caucus

According to a new CNN/ORC poll, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders are in a virtual tie in Nevada only days before the state’s caucuses this Saturday.

Clinton received 48% of likely Democratic caucusgoers while Sanders clocked in at 47%.

It’s worth noting, however, that while the CNN/ORC Nevada Poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,006 adult residents of the state, the results among the 282 likely Democratic primary voters show a plus or minus 6 percentage points in terms of margin of error.

Also, the polling shows no breakdown of ethnicity other than Clinton leading Sanders with whites 46%-44%. If that’s true, and the trend of Clinton doing better with Latinos and African-Americans, you would think she would be further ahead.

The turnout in 2008 was only 8% for the state caucuses, which in the long run, hardly represents an entire state. Sad.

Jon Ralston, noted political reporter in Nevada, tweeted earlier today that without knowing how minorities factor into the polling it’s hard to get a good read of what’s going on in the Silver State.

On the Republican side, it looks to be a blowout for Donald Trump who gets 45% of likely Republican caucusgoers. Sen. Marco Rubio comes in 2nd at 19% and Sen. Ted Cruz a close third with 17%.

Survey Shows Hillary Clinton Has Strongest Support Among Likely LGBT Voters

According to a survey of likely LGBT voters conducted by Community Marketing & Insights, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is seen as the presidential candidate who is most supportive of LGBT rights and equality.

Clinton received the support of 48% of those polled, while Sen. Bernie Sanders clocked in at 41%.

Among Republicans Donald Trump was the highest ranked but with a measly 2%. Gov. John Kasich and Sen. Marco Rubio got 1% each.

It’s interesting to note that in the 2012 presidential campaign LGBT voters comprised 5% of the total electorate. Of those, 77% voted for President Obama while 23% threw their support to GOP nominee Mitt Romney.

Five percent may not seem like a huge number, but consider this: 77% of 5 is about 4.8. In a tight race, four percentage points could be the difference between a Democrat picking the next few SCOTUS justices or a Republican.

New Campaign Ad From Hillary Clinton

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We need a president who is ready to handle every part of the job from day one.
Posted by Hillary Clinton on Saturday, February 13, 2016

Dallas Morning News Endorses Hillary Clinton

The Dallas Morning News has endorsed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Texas Democratic primary:

Democrats should vote for her March 1. She’s a better choice than another long-shot liberal senator, her surging rival Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

A better choice not because he’s too liberal to win in November, though he is. She’s better because over her lifetime, Clinton has learned to temper her idealism without losing it.

She’s learned to advance her agenda even when it means letting others advance too. She’s cultivated allies.

Read the rest of the editorial here.

Hillary Clinton: “I Am Not A ‘Single-Issue’ Candidate”

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We don’t live in a single-issue country. If we solved our problems with Wall Street and campaign finance reform tomorrow, we’d still have discrimination and barriers holding too many Americans back. We need to tackle all of those problems, too.
Posted by Hillary Clinton on Friday, February 12, 2016

Hillary Clinton used her closing remarks at last night’s debate to add a new layer her campaign’s message: “I am not a single-issue candidate.”

We don’t live in a single-issue country. If we solved our problems with Wall Street and campaign finance reform tomorrow, we’d still have discrimination and barriers holding too many Americans back. We need to tackle all of those problems, too.

I think this could be the right focus for her campaign. As strong and passionate as Sen. Bernie Sanders is on income inequality, his skills and abilities past that issue trails off in comparison to Hillary Clinton.

I thought last night’s debate was strong for both candidates. I don’t think anything was said that would sway one candidate’s supporters to the other side, but it was substantive and positive for both.

FiveThirtyEight Looks At The Terrain Going Forward For Clinton, Sanders

The polling/stats geniuses of FiveThirtyEight took a look at what the polls show in terms of upcoming primary challenges in the Democratic race for the presidential nomination.

As the competition moves into more diverse terrain, Sen. Bernie Sanders looks like he will need to up his game in terms of diversity.

From FiveThirtyEight:

Polling has indicated that Sanders trails among nonwhite voters by nearly 40 percentage points nationally. Although no reliable recent polling is available in Nevada, Clinton leads by 30 percentage points in both of our South Carolina forecasts. In the latest Marist College poll, she’s buoyed by a 74 percent to 17 percent lead among black voters. Sanders must cut into that margin if he wants to have any chance in South Carolina or anywhere in the South.

You could already see how Sanders might have problems in Nevada and South Carolina even as he was crushing Clinton in New Hampshire. Despite winning the state by more than 20 percentage points, the best Sanders could manage among registered Democrats was a tie. His large margin came from registered independents who voted in the Democratic primary. You must be a registered Democrat to vote in the Nevada caucuses, though you can register as one the day of the election. In 2008, 81 percent of Nevada caucus-goers self-identified as Democrats. Just 58 percent of New Hampshire voters on Tuesday thought of themselves as Democrats.

Congressional Black Caucus Endorses Hillary Clinton For President

As the Democratic race for 2016 presidential nomination leaves a mainly white electorate in Iowa and New Hampshire and heads into more diverse campaign territory (Nevada, South Carolina), former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gets a big boost from the Congressional Black Caucus today.

From CNN:

Hillary Clinton earned a key endorsement on Thursday, when the Congressional Black Caucus political action committee backed her over Democratic presidential rival Bernie Sanders.

“One of the individuals that has been with us time and time again has been Hillary Clinton,” New York Rep. Gregory Meeks, chair of the Congressional Black Caucus Political Action Committee, told CNN’s Carol Costello on “Newsroom.” “She has been, her whole career, an individual that has been fighting for issues that are important to the African-American community.”

Meeks called endorsing Clinton “the right thing to do.”

“Black folks are not dumb. They come out for individuals that have their best interest at heart,” he said.

“We must have a president who is knowledgeable on both domestic and foreign policy,” said Butterfield, chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus. “We must have a president who understands the racial divide, not someone who just acquired the knowledge recently.”

“We need a president who doesn’t simply campaign and promise wonderful things — things that are politically impossible to achieve,” he added.

MSNBC/Telemundo Will Host Nevada Townhall With Clinton, Sanders February 18th

From Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston:

MSNBC and Telemundo will co-host a town hall with Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in Las Vegas on Feb. 18, two days before Nevada Democrats hold presidential caucuses, I’ve confirmed.

The state party will partner with the networks on the event that is sure to draw distinctions on key Nevada issues and those important to Latinos.

Hispanic turnout was 14 percent in the 2008 Nevada caucuses, according to exit polls.