Nate Silver: Romney down a touchdown?

Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight Blog on the New York Times, writes a really interesting article comparing the current Presidential election to a football game.

He makes the analogy that campaigns, like football games, can be viewed as having four quarters;
1st – Primary Season
2nd – Clinching party nomination
3rd – National convention and short period thereafter
4th – Last few weeks including Presidential debates

We would be, at this point, in the “4th quarter” of this election.

Nate also makes note of the fact that, statistically speaking, according to the win probability calculator
at, an N.F.L. team down by field goal with 10
minutes left to play in the fourth quarter has a 34 percent probability
of winning the game. A team down by a touchdown wins just 16 percent of
the time.

Nate goes on the compare where Romney is at this point – in many polls down seven points from President Obama – saying Romney is more like a touchdown behind than a field goal.

Go read his article by clicking here.  Very interesting how this could be viewed and where things might go from here to election day.