As we get closer and closer to Monday’s Iowa caucus’s, folks are looking to polls even more to read tea leaves about who may win on the Democratic side.
A new PPP poll shows former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leading Sen. Bernie Sanders 48% to his 40%. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley comes in with 7%.
PPP makes note that O’Malley’s voter COULD end up helping Sanders as the survey shows 57% of O’Malley’s supporters name Sanders as their second pick.
In Iowa, for a candidate to receive any delegates from a particular precinct, he or she must have the support of at least 15% of participants required by the viability threshold. Supporters of inviable candidates can shift to a candidate deemed viable, form a new group of other inviable candidates in hopes of reaching the threshold, or choose to abstain.
This is where folks “second choice” factors prominently.
Also of note: 88% of Clinton’s supporters say they are “firmly committed” to voting for her versus 74% of Sander’s supporters.
Come Monday we’ll finally have some real turnout and real votes to see where this is all headed.