Super-smart guy Doug Sosnik, who was White House political director during President Clinton’s successful reelection race, writes for Axios:
Former Vice President Joe Biden’s most likely paths to 270 Electoral College votes:
1. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona: Biden wins all three states — his best option, given the political environment. (see above)
2. Michigan and Pennsylvania + two congressional districts — Nebraska-02 and Maine-02.
3. The Rust Belt: Biden wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
4. Michigan and the Sunbelt: Biden carries Michigan, Arizona and North Carolina.
5. Florida +1: Biden carries Florida, getting him to 261 electoral votes. A win in any of the other battleground states would put him well past 270.
The bottom line … Biden’s best strategy:
• Make putting Michigan out of reach for Trump the top priority.
• Lock up Pennsylvania.
• Prioritize winning Arizona, Maine-02 and Nebraska-02.
• Focus remaining resources on Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida.
Read Doug’s full analysis, “The Post-Political-Realignment Electoral College Map,” here.