The first poll conducted after this week’s Republican run-off shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for the U.S. Senate seat, with 47% to 44% support among likely voters.
Talarico garnered the support of 72% of moderates and 64% of independents.
New Texas Senate poll:
🔵 James Talarico 47%
🔴 Ken Paxton 44%Texas Public Opinion Research – 5/27-5/28 pic.twitter.com/S6opPoGVYH
— Team Talarico (@TeamTalaricoHQ) May 29, 2026
From USA Today:
A key finding was that Paxton did not gain prospective voters who voted for current Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in the runoff.
Nearly a third — 30% — said they would vote for Talarico, while 44% would vote for Paxton. The remaining 23% are either undecided or say that they will not vote.
Among the GOP runoff voters who plan to support Talarico, 51% cite Paxton’s criminality or corruption as their primary reason.
For context, Paxton was indicted on three felony counts of securities fraud in 2015. The case was dismissed in March 2024.
Paxton was also impeached by the Texas House in 2023 but was acquitted by the Texas Senate later that year.
According to the poll, 38% of Texans view Paxton favorably. Talarico, by comparison, is viewed favorably by 47% of Texans.
If he wins, Talarico would become the first Democrat to hold the seat since Sen. Bob Krueger in 1993.
A Democratic internal poll found the same results.
🚨SHOCKING: According to a Democratic internal poll, James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 3% in Texas’ US Senate election.
Texas – 2026 US Senate
🟦James Talarico 47% (+3)
🟥Ken Paxton 44%Democrats have not won a US Senate race in Texas since 1993.
Slingshot Strategies… pic.twitter.com/uLEktKz1g5
— Election Time (@ElectionTime_) May 31, 2026
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